May 17
Updated 05.17.24 @ 7:22a Most local rain gauges picked up around half an inch of moisture during the overnight. Steady rain is falling this morning south of town, including embedded…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/17/video-rain-departs-for-the-weekend-but-turning-increasingly-muggy-keeping-close-eyes-on-late-next-week/
May 16
Updated 05.16.24 @ 7:25a Our Thursday is off to a stellar of a start. Plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures will eventually give way to increasing clouds this afternoon and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/16/video-timing-out-rain-and-fresh-thoughts-on-our-late-may-pattern/
May 14
Updated 05.14.24 @ 5a While we are dry this morning, that will all change this afternoon and evening as moisture lifts in from the south. This is all thanks to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/14/tuesday-morning-rambles-talking-precipitation-in-the-short-term-and-late-may-early-june-pattern/
May 10
Updated 05.10.24 @ 5a As we look ahead to the long range pattern for the 2nd half of May and early June we see a lack of heat and a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/10/video-long-range-musings-to-close-out-may-and-open-june/
Apr 25
Updated 04.25.24 @ 7:15a
While we have a couple of storm systems to track in the upcoming week, the majority of the heavy rain and severe weather will remain confined to areas west of here- mostly throughout the Plains and into the upper Mid West. In short, the immediate-term has “more bark than bite.”
The overall long range look reflects a lack of any sort of stagnant regime, locally, and it also doesn’t show that we’ll have to endure much in the way of “extremes” over the upcoming 3-4 week period from a temperature or precipitation perspective. – A good sign as Plant24 hits its true stride.
Week 1
The JMA and European are in agreement that this period will feature warmer than normal temperatures and near average rainfall. Of note, we’re tracking storm systems that will impact our weather Friday, Saturday, and again Monday and Tuesday.
Week 2
We note guidance getting more bullish on an East Coast trough beginning to develop during this time period. While likely averaging out slightly above normal as a whole in Week 2, I’d also plan on a few days of cooler air (type of stuff that could send us to around 40° at night and low-mid 60s during the day) around the Day 8 – 10 time frame. The period should once again feature timely rains, but nothing far off from the average.
Weeks 3-4
It’ll be interesting to watch what the European Weeklies do later today during this time frame, but the JMA is highlighting a more unsettled (wetter) pattern for now in the middle to latter part of May. Near to slightly below average temperatures and widespread above normal rains are being shown. (We’ll update this period after reviewing today’s European Weeklies).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/25/long-range-report-looking-ahead-to-may/
Apr 18
Updated 04.18.24 @ 4:34a
The day will start off quiet, but won’t end that way. We’re monitoring the threat of strong to severe storms later this evening, continuing into and through the overnight hours. The good news? All of these will be off to our east prior to heading out the door to work or school Friday morning. Then we can concentrate on a refreshingly cool weekend with sunshine returning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/18/video-storms-rumble-in-tonight-long-range-musings-into-may/
Apr 12
Updated 04.12.24 @ 7:48a Today will certainly be another less than ideal weather day across central Indiana, but the trade off for what awaits Saturday will be worth it. You’ve…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/12/video-mother-nature-is-making-us-earn-it-saturday-long-range-pattern-remains-active-stormy/
Apr 11
Updated 04.11.24 @ 7:39a Masters Thursday will be a wash-out up this way. Thankfully, down at Augusta, GA we’re talking about better weather- at least relatively speaking. 🙂 Additional showers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/11/video-hang-in-there-brighter-open-to-the-weekend-coming-long-range-thoughts-into-late-month/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Apr 01
Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a
I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.
II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.
III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.
All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/01/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/