Jan 26
Updated 01.26.24 @ 7:38a A quiet but gloomy and unseasonably mild close to the work week can be expected before a weak system skirts the region Saturday evening into predawn…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/26/video-wet-snow-accumulation-for-parts-of-the-region-sunday-morning-pattern-evolution-into-early-march/
Jan 25
Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/25/video-source-region-change-for-our-storm-systems-between-now-and-next-week-establishing-a-bar-on-just-how-cold-we-get-next-month/
Jan 22
Updated 01.22.24 @ 6:23p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/22/video-short-and-long-term-ideas-any-thoughts-of-winters-demise-premature-in-our-opinion/
Jan 21
Updated 01.21.24 @ 7:51a
This is the 4th morning of the new year where most, if not all, of central Indiana is waking up to subzero temperatures.
While temperatures will moderate this week, our January “thaw” won’t come without a few bumps in the road. A wet and active pattern will accompany the milder air, and we’re likely also going to be dealing with periods of dense fog early and mid week.
The onset of this wet shift will come with a period of freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Due to the extremely cold surface, it’s icing on roadways and sidewalks that worry us most as opposed to elevated (tree limbs/ power lines) icing. Anticipate slick and hazardous travel Monday night into predawn Tuesday before temperatures “warm.” If possible, we highly recommend simply staying off area roadways during this time frame.
Our next round of moderate to locally heavy rain will push into the Ohio Valley and central Indiana Wednesday into Thursday.
The late week storm may even take on a bit of a wintry flavor Friday into Saturday.
Despite this sneaky potential of a little wintry fun, it’ll be within what’s otherwise going to be a much warmer than normal period over the upcoming couple weeks (of course, once we get past tomorrow).
Not only is the MJO rolling into traditionally warm phases for this time of year, but our teleconnection suite is aligned in a manner that also strongly argues for milder to much milder than normal conditions across our neck of the woods.
Eventually, we anticipate a return of colder than normal temperatures and another opportunity for ice/ snow but likely not until we get to mid-February and beyond. If you didn’t have a chance to catch our Long Range update, we recommend listening here, including February and thoughts into meteorological spring.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/21/sunday-morning-rambles-talking-about-icing-monday-evening-wet-week-ahead-and-potential-of-a-wintry-return/
Jan 19
Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/
Jan 12
Updated 01.12.24 @ 12:18p
The upcoming 10-days is a case of cold and if you believe some of the guidance, even colder (next weekend). Multiple nights below zero and dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 30° below zero are on tap at times during this period. You know that we’re interested to see if we meet our respective targets. It’s not just the magnitude of the cold, but the duration and widespread nature, as shown over the upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies from last night’s European ensemble.
But milder changes are on the horizon as we rumble through the warmer phases (at least this time of year) of the MJO and see some temporary trends within our teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA) that favor a period of much less harsh, and even milder than normal conditions developing by the last week of the month.
After our frigid stretch, temperatures even only a few degrees above normal will feel like a heatwave.
The hunch here is that we return to another cold stretch as we rumble into February. Long range guidance shows “part 2” of our high latitude blocking event and the thought here is this is a byproduct of a combination of sea surface temperature (SST) configuration in the northwest ATL, the current state of our Nino, as well as the SST configuration in the central/ northern PAC. At any rate, the alignment between teleconnections and, of course, the MJO rolling into the colder phases supports this idea. Let us worry about that and you enjoy the late month “mild-up!” Heavens knows after these next couple weeks, you will have earned it!
We’ll continue to keep tabs on the threat of snow over the next couple weeks. Things can, obviously, change but as of now I’m not seeing any hefty snow threats for central Indiana. The one feature that does potentially require watching is out there towards the end of next week, but the overall fast paced flow should prevent this from deepening into anything overly significant. At least that’s the way we see it now.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on short-term trends but feel good with what we have out there concerning rain/ snow amounts, timing of the transition, and damaging wind potential.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/12/prolonged-period-of-bitterness-but-a-change-is-on-the-horizon/
Jan 11
Updated 01.11.24 @ 6:12p Busy times remain in the good ole forecast office! This evening we dig into not only new long range thoughts but look deeper into the latest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/11/video-long-range-manifesto-and-fresh-thoughts-on-friday-the-weekend/
Jan 08
Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/08/video-memorable-winter-pattern-the-next-couple-weeks-longer-range-musings/
Jan 05
Updated 01.05.24 @ 5:13p
High latitude blocking will continue to mature over the upcoming 6-10 day period. This will force a very stormy pattern underneath (across the Lower 48). After the light snow late tonight and Saturday morning (primarily grassy and elevated surfaces), we’re tracking 3 additional storms over this particular time period and each of these will deal out their own respective challenges that we’ll have to hone in on as the system(s) draws closer. Our daily posts and Client videos will handle those specifics.
Storm dates:
While we’re not looking at anything particularly noteworthy (in terms of relative to average) in the cold department over the next week, this begins to change by the 8-10 day period. Admittedly it’s been challenging trying to time when the arctic air sloshes east in this type pattern, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this should take place around mid-month. Note the cross polar flow developing towards the 10-15 day period, per this afternoon’s European ensemble update.
Just how cold are we talking? Subzero lows and highs around 10°F without a snowpack. Should we have a snowpack down by this time then the threat of a double-digit below zero low and highs in the single digits is on the table. The target date for this cold comes between the 14th and 18th. Wind chills will obviously be much colder.
The plot continues to thicken…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/05/the-arctic-hounds-lurk/
Jan 04
Updated 01.04.24 @ 6:46a Enjoy the last couple of quiet days while you have them. Skies will slowly brighten later today, but otherwise anticipate mostly cloudy and seasonably cold conditions.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/video-multiple-impactful-storms-into-mid-month-discussing-overnight-ensemble-trends/