Summer Feel Returns…
The past (10) days have been particularly pleasant across central Indiana, especially by late-July standards. 80% of the period has featured temperatures at, or below, normal, and the past couple of days have been impressively cool. Hat tip to Sean Ash (@SeanWTHR) for the most recent stat: “Just the 12th time in 147 years of back-to-back July days in Indianapolis with a high of 72° or below.” Rainfall has been plentiful across central Indiana, including widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ with some reports of 3″ to 5″ over the past 48 hours.
As we rumble into August, you knew that summer feel had to return, right?! 🙂
Forecast models are in agreement that an upper level ridge will expand across the Great Lakes region in the 6-10 day period. This will deliver a return of warm-to-hot and muggy conditions to central Indiana- beginning this weekend into next week.
While the next couple of days will continue the cooler than normal theme, temperatures will return to a “summery” feel over the weekend, continuing into next week. Along with the warmer air will also come increasing humidity. In short, we recommend incorporating a pool visit (or two) into your weekend schedule. Highs will return into the upper 80s to around 90° and overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70°. While warmer and certainly more humid than we’ve been, we still believe the hottest of the season is behind us (highs of 94° on July 4th and 14th).
While a more summer-like feel will replace the unseasonably cool close to the month and open to August, it sure looks like the hotter regime will be transitional. The general consensus from data points towards a return of seasonable to below average temperatures along with a continuation of active times as mid-month approaches…
Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.
Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday. We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week. There will be locally heavier totals.
The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.
While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department. That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…
As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure. As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain. Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.
Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.
Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…