Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.07.34 AMHighlights:

  • Storms to start the work week
  • Heat and humidity build
  • Heat doesn’t last

Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours.  Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours.  As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon.  Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.

We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west.  The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well.  The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August.  Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well.  We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.

Wet
The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…

Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 7.24.50 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
  • Heat builds late next week

Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles.  That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.

Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.

Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front.  The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish.  For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.

One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat.  Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Entering A Stormy Period…

We’re enjoying quiet times across Indiana this evening, but times are quickly changing to put us into a stormy position between Wednesday morning and wrapping up the work week.

While the overall pattern is an easy one to label from a broad scale perspective as “stormy,” the precise details are incredibly difficult to pin point much more than 12-24 hours in advance.  With that said, most of the state is very much in fair game for periods of storms (generally tracking in a NW to SE fashion) between now and the end of the work week.  Eventually, drier air will set us up for a very pleasant weekend, including lots of sunshine and cooler temperatures.  In fact, latest data still suggests we can expect to wake up to the 50s Sunday and/ or Monday morning(s).

Before we enjoy the pleasant weekend weather, the first of a series of storm complexes will approach Wednesday morning.  Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) can be a true pain for short-term modeling to handle, but the overall idea this evening is for the first of (2) complexes to impact parts of the region Wednesday morning.

This is an idea what the radar may look like around 9a.  This would be the same complex that will deal quite the blow to portions of the eastern Plains and upper Mid West tonight (localized damaging straight line winds will be an issue to our NW).  Thankfully, we expect weakening of this complex as it dives off to the SE, in our general direction.

hrrr_ref_indy_16We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).

hires_ref_indy_40Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

While rainfall amounts won’t be uniform, there’s the potential for some neighborhoods to get 2″-3″ of rain between now and week’s end (where storms train).

cmc_total_precip_indy_17Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10.  Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…

MidJuly

Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Weather Rambles

Unseasonably Cool; Heavy Rains…

Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 10.14.18 AMHighlights:

  • Heavy rain
  • Unseasonably cool
  • Turning warmer
  • Active, stormy time later in the week

Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning.  Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene.  Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning.  The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary.  In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today.  Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s.  Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening.  That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.

We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime.  The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)
7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather