Category: Heavy Rain

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

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Nov 12

Looking Ahead Towards Our Next Storm…

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Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Oct 27

Wet And Windy Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Please excuse the lighting in this video.  (Still trying to get the new office set up)! https://youtu.be/l15pHYwTq_I

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Oct 26

Heavy Rain Then Colder…

Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door.  It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s.  Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.

This morning’s satellite picture:

image7When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west.  The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.

8a Tuesday Futurecast

8am

8p Tuesday Futurecast

8pOvernight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast

overnightLocally heavy rainfall can be expected.  When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.

Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning3The story after the big rain storm moves away?  A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country.  This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.

500mb

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