Highlights:
- Pleasant air in the short-term
- Storm chances Friday
- Widespread soaker
Looking Increasingly Wet For The Holiday Weekend…High pressure will supply continued dry times Thursday, but clouds will increase during the evening and give way to scattered showers and embedded thunder Friday. This doesn’t look like a huge deal, but don’t be surprised by rain and/ or a clap of thunder to close the work week. That said, there will be more dry time than wet Friday.
As we rumble into the long Independence Day weekend, confidence continues to increase for a widespread soaking rain to develop. Thankfully, Saturday still looks mostly dry, but we think clouds will be on the increase late in the day, followed by rain overspreading the region from west to east as Sunday afternoon approaches. Widespread rain should continue into Monday. We still have questions on timing and precise placement of heaviest rains (2″+ totals), but it’s safe to say most, if not all, of the region can expect a long-duration rain event developing Sunday. Stay tuned. It’ll also be cool. Areas where heaviest rains set up Sunday likely won’t climb out of the 60s.
Drier air will return late Monday into the middle of next week, but we caution that another wet weather maker appears to have eye on the region beginning next Thursday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″
We note ensemble support, as well.
Rain totals will likely be hefty for some, including widespread 2″+ totals where the axis of heaviest rain falls.
Stay tuned as we continue to look over data and update the important Independence Day weekend forecast.
A line of thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and a few of these could be strong to severe as they push to the south. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern. We think best chances of thunderstorms across central IN will come during the mid to late afternoon hours into the early evening.
The air mass is loaded with moisture today. In fact, precipitable water values will zoom to 2″+ this afternoon and suggest the threat of torrential rainfall with any storm that develops.
Once to Tuesday, a MUCH cooler, drier air mass will arrive on the scene and help set up an unseasonably cool close to the month.
We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.
The first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.
We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours. We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.
Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours.