Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Looking Ahead Into Early April…

Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running near seasonal norms from a temperature standpoint (0.50° above normal).  Chill has dominated the northern tier and eastern third of the country.

Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date.  Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.

A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:

As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist.  This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either.  There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.

By Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, shower chances will begin to increase and that will set the stage for a wet close to the work week as numerous showers and embedded thunder move across the region Thursday into Friday.  This is courtesy of a storm system “bowling” through to our south.  This won’t be a severe weather maker for our neck of the woods, but will serve to create a rather damp and gloomy regime during the aforementioned period.

However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend.  Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.

That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period.  This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame.  From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.

Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average).  Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month.  With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month.  Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.

10-day, AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Bumpy Start To The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Stormy open to the work week
  • Colder midweek
  • Storms return this weekend

Couple Rounds Of Storms Possible Today…Radar this morning is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms sinking south out of northern Indiana.  Expect to get wet in, and around, the city as the rush hour gets into full swing.  We’ll monitor this evening for the potential of another round of thunderstorms that’ll, once again, originate across northern IN before tracking southeast.  We don’t anticipate widespread severe weather with these rounds of storms, but small hail is certainly possible in some of the storms.

Tuesday will be an overall quieter day, but a cold front will pass with a shower chance Tuesday evening.  We’ll then note a northerly wind shift and a much colder air mass Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  Highs Wednesday will run 10°-15º below average.  If you’re not a fan of the cold, no need to fret as a warmer southerly flow will develop Thursday afternoon and put us in position to return to seasonable levels for highs Thursday after the chilly start.  We’ll then run much warmer than average this weekend, but it comes with a wet and stormy trade off.  Periods of heavy rain are possible Saturday into Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″
7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Hail, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

February Tug Of War…

With data only encompassing the first couple days of the month, February has gotten off to a warm start.  As we know, the trend over the past 24 hours has been colder and this will continue as we open up the weekend.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017However the cold air won’t last and milder times will return by the second half of the weekend.  This back and forth “tug of war” type regime will remain as cold and warmth (relative to average) continue to battle over the upcoming couple weeks.  The latest European ensemble shows this nicely.

EPS2317This also favors a rather active pattern and confidence is high on a wetter than average period upcoming over the next couple weeks.  See the GFS ensembles support this idea.  A couple strong storms are also possible Tuesday.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4Unfortunately for snow lovers, the majority of significant moisture should fall as rain.  Best snow chances appear to come with “backlash” wrap around snow showers and squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Accumulating snow is possible, but most amounts should be light.  We’ll keep an eye on it.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_19Longer-term, the fight continues deeper into the month.  As mentioned this morning, teleconnections and analogs would suggest cold and wintry conditions, but modeling sure isn’t going in that direction as of yet.  The battle rages on and given the trends of the winter, it’s hard to bet against the warmer solutions, albeit with lower confidence than we’d like to have from this distance.

10-day, Arctic Cold, European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Times Are Changing, Or Are They?

January-to-date is running milder than normal across the region- to the tune of 3.3 degrees (F).  This is after a frigid open to the month, as you recall.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anomThe mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter.  We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.

Winter lovers, have no fear as changes appear to be in the offing as we go through the last few days of January and head into February.  The winter so far has featured conflicting signals that continue to try and compete with one another to take hold of the pattern.  Can we get these drivers to align in a way that would pull a more persistent trough into the east for the second half of the winter and, ultimately, set-up a sustained cold pattern helping make up for lost time in the snowfall department?  Time will tell, but we do note the following late month:

  • (+) PNA pattern
  • Sudden stratospheric warming event
  • High latitude blocking

All are encouraging for a shift back towards a wintry regime.  As always, the devil is in the details and we’re skeptical as to the longevity of these signals.  “Cautiously optimistic” would be the way to sum up our current feel longer-term into the month of February, but we’re not as bullish on lock and hold cold, wintry conditions at this time as what you may hear from some of our national compadres.  Understanding that various drivers can have a different impact mid and late winter as opposed to early is one thing.  It’s also important to note that long term modeling has been abysmal as of late and we want to tread through the next couple of weeks with caution to see whether or not the cold drivers can finally take hold.

Needless to say, at least through late month, one can see the significant changes take place at 500mb.

Thursday:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_2This Weekend:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_5Next Thursday:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_9Next Weekend:

ecm_eps_z500a_noram_11The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look.  The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region.  Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts).  Blocking is forcing the low south.  By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.

As far as storms go later in the period, it’s far too early to discuss specifics, but the pattern seems to be one that will promote the chance to get into the act on high-ratio producing clippers.  It’s the first time we can say that this year.  Time will tell…

10-day, Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, High-latitude Blocking, PNA, snow, Spring Tease, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy