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Category: Heavy Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-weekend-on-deck/
Jul 05
Entering A Stormy Period…
We’re enjoying quiet times across Indiana this evening, but times are quickly changing to put us into a stormy position between Wednesday morning and wrapping up the work week.
While the overall pattern is an easy one to label from a broad scale perspective as “stormy,” the precise details are incredibly difficult to pin point much more than 12-24 hours in advance. With that said, most of the state is very much in fair game for periods of storms (generally tracking in a NW to SE fashion) between now and the end of the work week. Eventually, drier air will set us up for a very pleasant weekend, including lots of sunshine and cooler temperatures. In fact, latest data still suggests we can expect to wake up to the 50s Sunday and/ or Monday morning(s).
Before we enjoy the pleasant weekend weather, the first of a series of storm complexes will approach Wednesday morning. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) can be a true pain for short-term modeling to handle, but the overall idea this evening is for the first of (2) complexes to impact parts of the region Wednesday morning.
This is an idea what the radar may look like around 9a. This would be the same complex that will deal quite the blow to portions of the eastern Plains and upper Mid West tonight (localized damaging straight line winds will be an issue to our NW). Thankfully, we expect weakening of this complex as it dives off to the SE, in our general direction.
We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).
Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here. Some of these could be strong to severe.
While rainfall amounts won’t be uniform, there’s the potential for some neighborhoods to get 2″-3″ of rain between now and week’s end (where storms train).
Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10. Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/entering-a-stormy-period/
Jul 03
Unseasonably Cool; Heavy Rains…
Highlights:
- Heavy rain
- Unseasonably cool
- Turning warmer
- Active, stormy time later in the week
Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene. Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning. The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary. In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today. Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s. Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).
Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening. That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.
We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime. The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-cool-heavy-rains/
Jul 02
Unseasonably Cool; The Calm Before The Storm…
The morning is off to a dry and unseasonably cool start, including filtered sunshine. Temperatures are running 15-20 degrees below normal across the state, with many central IN neighborhoods currently in the lower to middle 50s.
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!
Sunday will also be a chilly day for the time of the year as temperatures north of I-70 likely remain in the 60s most of the day.
We’ll have a video update posted later this evening with fresh thoughts from the 12z model suite.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-cool-the-calm-before-the-storm/
Jul 01
Friday Morning Video Update: Pleasant Open To The Holiday Weekend Before Wet Times Build In…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-video-update-pleasant-open-to-the-holiday-weekend-before-wet-times-build-in/