Category: Heavy Rain

Jul 27

Storm Chances, But Plenty Of Dry Time…

Screen Shot 2016-07-27 at 7.14.50 AMHighlights:

  • Storm chances, but timing needs fine tuning
  • Turning slightly cooler over the weekend
  • Unsettled regime continues early next week

More Sunshine Today…Areas of heavy rain resulted in localized flooding across south-central IN yesterday.  While we can’t go with a completely dry forecast today, it will be an overall drier day when compared to Tuesday.  An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but most should remain dry.

Upper level energy and increased moisture will lead to a more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.  With precipitable water values approaching 2″ in spots Thursday, localized hefty downpours will again be possible.

We’ll continue scattered storm chances this weekend, particularly Saturday, as renewed upper level energy moves overhead.  After a slightly cooler stretch of weather, compared to normal, we’ll begin to heat things back up next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″ (localized heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/storm-chances-but-plenty-of-dry-time/

Jul 26

Stormy For Some This Morning; Transient Pattern Into August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-for-some-this-morning-transient-pattern-into-august/

Jul 21

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend.  Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend.  Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.

HeatIndex

2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some.  With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates.  Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

LateFriNight

3.)  The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average.  It’s a wet look, overall.

WetPattern

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!

July31st

4.)  Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August.  That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.29 AM

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.39 AM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-rambles-2/

Jul 18

Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.07.34 AMHighlights:

  • Storms to start the work week
  • Heat and humidity build
  • Heat doesn’t last

Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours.  Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours.  As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon.  Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.

We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west.  The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well.  The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August.  Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well.  We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.

Wet

The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/stormy-start-heat-builds-late-week/

Jul 16

Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…

Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 7.24.50 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
  • Heat builds late next week

Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles.  That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.

Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.

Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front.  The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish.  For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.

One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat.  Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-weekend-before-storms-return/