Category: Hail

Jun 03

Tuesday Night Update; Southern Indiana Under Gun For A Big Severe Weather Day Wednesday.

It’s been a bit of a frustrating afternoon as I’ve been trying to upload a video discussing our thoughts around tomorrow for a couple of hours….only to no avail.

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So this post will have to do.  Really our thoughts remain unchanged concerning the way things unfold late tonight and Wednesday.  The severe thunderstorms to our northwest continue to rumble as of the 10 o’clock hour.

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The Storm Prediction Center holds firm to the Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley Wednesday.

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We wouldn’t be surprised to see a portion (most likely the southern half) of the Slight Risk area upgraded to a rare Moderate Risk area with the update from the SPC early Wednesday morning.

Our thinking hasn’t changed in that we believe the current complex of severe storms arrives into north central Indiana in a weakened state early Wednesday morning.  The rush hour will likely include heavy rain and plenty of thunder, though we think the majority, if not all, of this activity Wednesday morning will remain below severe levels across our immediate region.  Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into the area, especially north of the city during the predawn hours and include plenty of heavy rain.

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A second round of showers and thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon Wednesday and is likely to turn severe across south central Indiana and points south Wednesday afternoon.  Dangerous conditions are a good bet, including large and destructive hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Certainly if you have plans from Indianapolis to Louisville or Cincy tomorrow afternoon and evening please keep tuned to the latest weather conditions and radar updates.  Further north, the severe potential is much less certain.  We continue to think areas north of the I-70 corridor will struggle to shake the stability provided from the early morning rain and storms.  We caution though that this remains a now-cast scenario and will require a close eye tomorrow afternoon.

Looking farther ahead, we’ll enjoy a refreshing blast of air Thursday-Saturday with bright sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures.  Warmth and humidity will return Sunday with rainfall potential around 1″ additional precipitation.  This will be followed by yet another big push of cooler, drier air early next week.  More on this in the days to come.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/03/tuesday-night-update-southern-indiana-under-gun-for-a-big-severe-weather-day-wednesday/

Jun 03

Watching Wednesday Closely.

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After a heavy dose of rain across central Indiana Monday, today will be much quieter, AND increasingly sunny!  A boundary will slip south through the afternoon hours and could ignite a shower or thunderstorm, but these will primarily be south and east of the city, itself. We’re going with a more optimistic approach to our forecast today for the greater Indianapolis region and points north.  All eyes will then shift northwest to a blossoming complex of rain and severe thunderstorms this afternoon. We’ll watch this complex track south and east with time tonight and rumble into the region, especially from IND and points north, early Wednesday morning.  Most of these storms will be below severe levels, but the storms are likely to be quite noisy and pack heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.  A second round of thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and likely turn severe for some.  You can read our thoughts from last night here and this continues to sum up our thinking for now.  Widespread additional rainfall Wednesday will fall in the 1″-2″ range.

Get set to open the windows and welcome in a breath of fresh air as we wrap up the work week. Gone will be the warm and sticky air that we’ve dealt with through the early week and in return we’ll enjoy temperatures several degrees cooler along with unseasonably comfortable humidity levels.

Our next rain and storm threat will blow into town Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/03/watching-wednesday-closely/

Jun 02

Monday Morning Video Update; Severe Weather Potential And Heavy Rain…

An active few days lie ahead though it won’t rain and storm the entire time, and many dry hours can be expected over the course of the next few days.  The video covers the details below!

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/02/monday-morning-video-update-severe-weather-potential-and-heavy-rain/

May 22

Indy Weather Recap And A Look Ahead

Wednesday was a stormy day across central Indiana, including damaging wind and hail. Flooding was also a concern in some areas.  Officially here at IndyWx.com HQ we picked up 2.21″ of rain Wednesday- most of which fell in a 3 hour time period.  Here’s a cool image from the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics showcasing the heaviest rainfall.

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Despite a couple of showers (primarily south of the city) later this evening the upcoming three days will be beautiful and rain-free!

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Temperatures are trending cooler when compared to 24 hours ago and as noted here by the 24 temperature difference, the cooler air to our north will continue to push south tonight.

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Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal levels the next couple days before warmth slowly builds Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s for several communities.

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True summer-like heat and humidity will lift north Memorial Day into Tuesday.  Note the temperature anomalies do an about face from Day 1 to Day 5.  Heat and humidity will be on the rebound for the unofficial start to summer, but, as noted above, should remain in the “comfy range” for race day.

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With the increasing warmth and humidity will come a return of scattered shower and thunderstorm chances early next week.

As we look forward to early June, there are indications it could open on the warm side.  Note relative agreement between the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2), NAEFS, and Physical Science Division model.  Does the warm pattern stick and hold?  Not so fast, my friend… 😉

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/22/indy-weather-recap-and-a-look-ahead/

May 22

Fantastic Weather Heading Into The Holiday Weekend!

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After a stormy Wednesday that featured flooding, hail, and wind damage, today will be a refreshing change!  The cooler, drier, and sunny start to the day is a sign of things to come for the long holiday and race weekend!  A weak disturbance could add a few clouds tonight and a shower downstate, but most will stay dry.  High pressure will then supply wall-to-wall sunshine and cooler air as we wrap up the work week and head into the long weekend.  A hotter, more humid air mass will build in for Memorial Day, itself, and result in a muggy feel along with scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/22/fantastic-weather-heading-into-the-holiday-weekend/

May 21

Damaging Hail Threat Looms For Central, Southern Indiana This Afternoon.

The morning is dawning pleasant and quiet, but things appear to get quite noisy and active around these parts later this afternoon.  A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass in place across the region and thunderstorms will erupt in rather explosive fashion as early as the early to mid afternoon hours.  Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of greatest concern.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for an enhanced risk of large and destructive hail this afternoon.

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Here’s a look at what the simulated forecast radar may resemble this afternoon, as always, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics:

Forecast Radar 1pm

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Now it’s important to note not everyone will see destructive severe weather (as is usually the case with any severe weather outbreak), but signals point towards the possibility of a rather significant and large scale severe hail event across central and southern portions of the state this afternoon and evening.  It’ll be very important to stay tuned to your favorite media and certainly heed all warnings that come out this afternoon.

We’ll clear things out nicely later tonight and Thursday and set the stage for an absolute beauty of a holiday and race weekend.  We forecast bright, sunny skies each day along with cool temperatures that slowly warm to the upper 70s for race day, itself.  We’ll introduce the next threat of storms for Memorial Day amidst bubbling true summer heat and humidity for next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/21/damaging-hail-threat-looms-for-central-southern-indiana-this-afternoon/

May 20

Severe Weather Video Brief Tonight-Wednesday

The region remains under fire for severe weather potential, primarily for damaging straight line wind and hail per latest thinking.  The video uncovers when you can expect this and looks ahead to the all-important Memorial Day and Indianapolis 500 weekend!

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/severe-weather-video-brief-tonight-wednesday/

May 20

Eyeing Storms Wednesday; Beauty Of A Weekend On Deck!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/eyeing-storms-wednesday-beauty-of-a-weekend-on-deck/

May 17

Slow Improvements…

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“Improvement” will be the weather word of the weekend, but it’s going to take a couple of slow baby steps before we see full-blown improvement (we think that comes Sunday)!  Today will feature more sunshine than Friday, but with plenty of cold air aloft, it won’t take long for that May sun to do it’s dirty work and help showers bubble up this afternoon.  While some small hail will be possible with the showers, hail reports won’t be nearly as widespread as what we saw Friday.  Temperatures will remain well below normal.  We finally think we can shake shower chances Sunday and introduce a partly cloudy sky.  Early next week looks dry, as well, until a warm front lifts north Tuesday.  This will introduce a much warmer, muggy brand of air to central Indiana and allow for the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for mid and late week.  A weak frontal boundary will slip south Thursday into Friday which will knock temperatures back a few degrees to wrap up the work week.  Rainfall amounts through the period will remain rather light, but some local downpours are possible in the muggy air mass mid week.

Forecast radar valid at 2p today shows scattered showers developing.

Forecast radar valid at 2p today shows scattered showers developing.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/17/slow-improvements/

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