Updated 03.23.22 @ 7:35a
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Updated 03.22.22 @ 6:52a
A shield of rain is lifting into central Indiana during the predawn hours and once it arrives, we can expect wet times to persist through the better part of our Tuesday.
This is all part of a surface low that will lift northeast out of the central Plains region (today) into the lower Great Lakes region (Thursday). In association with this low pressure system, a warm front will lift northeast across the region Wednesday. Eventually, a cold front will move from west to east and sweep the state Wednesday night and early Thursday.
As this all transpires, a steady “all day” soaker can be expected across the region today.
Heaviest rain will be confined to western and northwestern parts of the state where amounts of 2″+ can be expected by 7a Wednesday. For immediate central and eastern Indiana, amounts of 0.50″ to 1.25″ can be expected by Wednesday morning.
Precipitation will turn more “showery” in nature by Wednesday morning, but by this timeframe, all eyes will be turning to the potential of thunder Wednesday afternoon as just enough instability and cold air aloft combine. From the city, itself, and points north and east, the threat of a few stronger cells are present Wednesday afternoon (after lunchtime). With the ingredients in place, a few of these storms could produce hail as they race off to the northeast.
We’ll turn MUCH cooler Thursday and Friday with a few “nuisance” variety showers around, but compared to what we see today and Wednesday, these won’t be a big deal (just annoying ;-)).
The colder times continue into the weekend and early portions of the next week and with a fast northwesterly flow aloft, a couple of disturbances will likely deliver the potential of mixed rain/ snow showers Saturday and again Monday.
We still expect a hard freeze (25° to 30°) early next week for a good chunk of the region.
Updated 03.06.22 @ 9:20a
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Updated 06.18.21 @ 5:37p
Type: Severe weather event
What: Severe weather event and flash flood threat
When: This afternoon through tonight
Severe Risks: Damaging wind, large hail, embedded tornado potential, flash flooding
Summary: A complex of thunderstorms to our north this morning will diminish. As a result, the cloud canopy engulfing much of the region this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies late morning and into the afternoon. Intense heat is expected this afternoon, courtesy of a southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front and upper air disturbance. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon and heat indices will climb to between 100° and 105°. This heat, combined with a multitude of other ingredients: dew points into the 70s, convective available potential energy (CAPE) in excess of 4000 j/kg (suggestive of extreme instability), and steep low level lapse rates (rate of temperature change with height) all will play into what looks like a significant setup for a severe weather outbreak later this afternoon and tonight.
Initially, individual cells are likely to erupt (targeting mid to late afternoon) along an OFB (outflow boundary) across n-central Indiana. Damaging wind and large hail are the biggest concerns with these cells, but a tornado threat is also on the table in this highly unstable environment. Eventually the scattered, intense cells should congeal into more of a widespread storm complex by evening and impact most of central and southern parts of the state. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2” and promote a flash flood risk, especially if thunderstorms back-build and train over the same communities. Should this be the case, localized rainfall amounts of 3”-4” will be a good bet. As we progress into the overnight hours, the storm complex and associated flood risk will shift downstate.
Confidence: HighN
Updated 05.06.21 @ 7:34a
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