Category: Hail

Mar 27

Strong To Severe Storms By Easter Evening…

Happy Easter!  From all of us at IndyWx.com, we wish you a blessed day!

Easter Sunday is off to a beautiful start with lots of sunshine, temperatures in the 40s, and light winds.  Unfortunately, things will begin to change in rather significant fashion as early as the evening hours.  Beforehand, expect sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower 70s across many central IN neighborhoods.  It’ll turn increasingly moist, as well, as surface dew points jump into the lower 60s.

Highs today will reach the lower 70s.

Highs today will reach the lower 70s.

Dew points will climb into the lower 60s by evening.

Dew points will climb into the lower 60s by evening.

An approaching area of low pressure and associated cold front will provide just enough spin/ lift, in combination with the warmth and increasingly moist air mass, to ignite storms this evening.  Some of these storms will likely reach strong to severe levels.  We’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds and large hail.

High resolution simulated radar data suggests storms ignite around 6p across central IN.  We caution that this image should be used as guidance and not taken verbatim.

hrrr_ref_indy_11Have a way to get the latest weather information later this afternoon and evening.  Watches or warnings may be required…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/27/strong-to-severe-storms-by-easter-evening/

Mar 15

Storms Late Tonight…

The SPC has shifted the slight risk area NW with their latest outlook.    Before we talk storms, today is actually the pick of the week as we’re dry during…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/15/storms-late-tonight/

Jul 18

Hot & Humid Today; Stormy Weather Returns Sunday…

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 9.12.57 AMHighlights:

  • Hot and humid today
  • Scattered strong to severe storms Sunday
  • Unsettled early next week

After another wild evening of storms and flooding across central IN it’s good to see the sun shining this morning.  We think today will be a mostly dry day across the region, but will be plenty hot and humid.  Certainly plan to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water if you’re planning any lengthy outdoor activities today.

The break in the wet, stormy weather won’t last long as scattered to numerous thunderstorms return Sunday, including more hefty rainfall totals possible.  A few storms may become severe with damaging wind and large hail.

Early next week will remain unsettled, but we’re keeping our fingers crossed for a drier regime by the middle of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/18/hot-stormy-weather-returns-sunday/

Jul 13

Busy Severe Weather Day…

The Storm Prediction Center continues the Moderate Risk of severe weather for our region today.    A busy and potentially dangerous day awaits, including multiple rounds of severe weather, flooding,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/13/busy-severe-weather-day/

Jul 12

Sunday Evening Update On Monday’s Weather Situation…

6psatAn update this evening shows severe thunderstorms beginning to ignite over the northern Plains.  This is all associated with the first in a series of upper disturbances that will move southeast and provide multiple waves of severe weather around our neck of the woods over the upcoming 24-48 hours.

Data this evening really hasn’t changed from what we think will be a potentially dangerous day of severe weather and flooding across central Indiana.  It’ll be highly important to remain weather-aware tomorrow and have a means of getting the latest weather information.  Please take all warnings seriously.  Conditions are highly favorable for numerous damaging wind reports tomorrow and we suggest taking severe thunderstorm warnings as if they were tornado warnings tomorrow because of this.

* Please understand that though some of the data below includes time stamps for reference of what the radar may look like that these storm complexes often take a mind of their own and can accelerate off to the southeast sometimes quicker than what modeled radar may project 12+ hours out.  Tomorrow will certainly be a nowcast situation, beginning early in the morning.

With that said, we forecast multiple waves of severe weather tomorrow, beginning in the morning.  With high PWAT values, or precipitable water values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding.  It should be noted that with precipitable water values of over 2″ tomorrow (photo below) combined with recent saturated soils, flash flooding is a major concern.

1Speaking of flash flooding, latest data suggests rainfall of only 0.8″-1.5″ within a (3) hr. time period will lead to flash flooding.

ffg_IN_3Again, keeping in mind with the disclaimer prior, here’s what the radar may look like late morning, mid afternoon, and tomorrow night.

11a

3p

11pIn addition to the aforementioned flash flood concerns, we’re also supremely concerned with the potential of damaging straight line winds, particularly with the 3rd complex of storms Monday evening/ night.  Earlier in the day, and depending on how the atmosphere “recovers” with the 1st round of storms Monday morning, conditions are favorable for discrete super cells to develop during the mid afternoon (radar image #2 above).  While there are questions, early to mid afternoon would be the most likely time frame for potential tornadic activity and large hail.

To close, please ensure you have a means of getting the latest weather information Monday- beginning early in the morning.  Go ahead and charge your phones, tablets, and other electronics.  We suggest reviewing your severe weather safety plan with your family this evening  to provide a peace of mind, and to ensure you and your loved ones are prepared in the event severe weather and flooding develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/12/sunday-evening-update-on-mondays-weather-situation/

Jul 12

Active Pattern; Severe Weather A Major Concern…

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 9.43.43 AMHighlights:

  • Another round of strong to severe storms rumble in tonight
  • Significant severe weather outbreak Monday
  • Storms and flood threat continue Tuesday
  • Drying out and turning hot late week

A very active weather pattern will remain through the short-term.  Overnight storms have exited to the southeast and we’re now dealing with dry weather and sunshine. A few storms could bubble up this afternoon in the very humid air mass, but the more widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late tonight as another northwest to southeast moving complex rumbles in.  Similar to early this morning, flash flooding will be a concern, along with the potential of damaging wind, and hail.

Perhaps more concerning is what we think will be a secondary thunderstorm complex Monday evening into Monday night.  Furthermore, conditions appear to favor the threat of a couple super cells developing in advance of the big storm cluster.  These individual super cells will have the potential of producing tornadoes and large hail.  We’re then concerned of a widespread damaging wind threat with the large storm complex as it moves southeast.  Torrential rains and flash flooding will also be a big concern.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday, but there’s a light at the end of this wet tunnel by mid week.  We forecast a few days of dry weather in the Wednesday through Saturday time period.  As ridging expands, heat and humidity will build in a big time way.  For those holding out for true summer heat, next weekend may be your time!  That said, the long range pattern still supports a wetter/ cooler than normal regime quickly returning so enjoy!

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″-3″ with locally heavier totals

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/12/active-pattern-severe-weather-a-major-concern/

Jun 09

Ag Weather Report: 6/9/15

From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail.  (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).

Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May.  (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).

1

 

2Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.

Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks.   May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead.  This, of course, is fantastic news.

10As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves.  Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).

Day 2- Wednesday

3Day 3- Thursday

4As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond).  In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month.  It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.

6In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks.  The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.

7A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead.  Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.

Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.

5Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:

wk1.wk2_20150608.NAThe JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.

8BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you.  The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead.  Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games…  Long way to go here, however… 🙂

10

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/ag-weather-report-6915/

Jun 09

Hello Summer…

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 9.13.29 PMHighlights:

  • Big time heat and humidity through late week
  • Watching storm chances Wednesday night
  • Briefly drier air Saturday
  • Summer-like pattern continues next week

The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity.  Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday.  We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening.  Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening.  Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.

A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.  Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now.  Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/hello-summer/

Jun 08

Storms Tonight; Heat Builds This Week…

Screen Shot 2015-06-08 at 5.57.06 PMHighlights:

  • Stormy tonight for some
  • Heat builds this week
  • Better storm chances return for the weekend

A cold front remains off to our northwest as we type this and big storms are firing across northern portions of the state.  We’ll keep a close eye on those as they move southeast tonight and begin to pick up more forward momentum in the coming hours.  They’ve had a history of producing damaging hail.  Remain weather-aware this evening.

Thankfully we’ll begin to inject a drier air mass (briefly) into the region Tuesday.  A nice day is coming with lower humidity.  Most of the second half of the work week will also remain dry, but as humidity increases we have to mention the threat of an isolated to widely scattered storm.  The big story will be the heat as highs push into the 90 degree territory.  Prepare to sweat!

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region over the upcoming weekend.  We’re not forecast a complete washout either Saturday or Sunday, but with a very humid air mass in place, any shower or storm that develops will have the capability of producing torrential downpours.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/08/storms-tonight-heat-builds-this-week/

May 25

Strong To Severe Storms Possible Tuesday PM…

Screen Shot 2015-05-25 at 7.13.18 PMHighlights:

  • Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/ evening
  • Drier skies Thursday-Friday
  • Weekend cold front

hires_ref_indy_28Forecast radar above (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows our next weather concern and that has to do with an upper air disturbance moving northeast tonight into Tuesday.  This will likely ignite scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Remain weather-aware tomorrow for the possibility of these severe storms. Large hail is the big concern.  Should we see morning sunshine of significance then that would “up the ante” for afternoon severe potential.  We remain in a rather unsettled, warm, and humid pattern this week, but there will be plenty of dry time.  Coverage of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday will be diminished from what we can expect tomorrow and Wednesday.  A cold front will arrive over the weekend, helping to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage.

A blend of short and mid range computer guidance prints out an average of 1.5″-2″ of rain over the upcoming ten days.  This is needed after what’s been several weeks in a row of a lack of widespread rains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/25/strong-to-severe-storms-possible-tuesday-pm/

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