We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather this afternoon and evening across central and eastern portions of the state. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center includes an ‘Enhanced’ risk for the majority of the state and has upgraded southeastern portions of the state into a rare ‘Moderate’ risk.
Part of the reason behind today’s severe weather has to do with an overall pattern shift. An intense short wave trough (especially for this time of year) will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from southern WI (this morning) before “cutting off” over the Ohio Valley this weekend. Additionally, a couple of frontal boundaries will swing through the state- the most potent being the boundary that surges east this afternoon and evening. The combination of ingredients spell trouble across at least a portion of the region- especially from Indianapolis and points south and east this afternoon and evening.
High resolution forecast radar products are likely struggling with handling the specifics today, but we think one or two lines of storms will track southeast across the state this afternoon and evening. The risk of severe weather will diminish from 7p to 8p from northwest to southeast across the state. Greatest concerns from a severe perspective include the potential of large, damaging hail and straight line winds. Additionally, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out. It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon and evening. Have a means of getting the latest information with respect to watches and warnings that may be issued later today from the National Weather Service.
As we look ahead, though the severe threat will end, unsettled times will remain this weekend. In fact, a couple of the stronger showers Saturday afternoon could contain hail (below severe levels), due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low. Greatest coverage of showers this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours both Saturday and Sunday.
Upper level energy will push east this afternoon and combine with an unstable air mass, along with unseasonably hot and humid air (highs today will reach the lower 90s across the southern half of the state with dew points around 70°), resulting in explosive thunderstorm development this evening. Storms will rumble east during the nighttime hours before exiting off to the east and diminishing during the early morning hours.
We target the time frame of 6p to midnight for greatest storm coverage and the possibility of severe weather. While the greatest threat of severe is just south of the city, itself, I think all of central IN is in play for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight. In addition to locally heavy rain, stronger storms could pose a damaging straight line wind threat along with large hail.
III. Our next focus is on the prospects of late week/ weekend snow. Models will continue to struggle with the finite details over the next few days. I’m not so sure the suppressed look displayed currently is the correct one. Let’s remember, this time last week models were taking our Easter storm well to our south. We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next few days.
IV. Regardless of whether we get additional snow down or not, a first-class late season arctic blast will drill south this weekend. This will be cold enough to keep temperatures in the 30s for highs Friday and Saturday. Brutal stuff for early-April when average highs are around 60…