Category: Forecast

Jan 15

Quiet Weather For Now….

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Moderation Continues; Windy Saturday…A weak frontal boundary will slip through the state this afternoon/ evening and could offer up a snow flurry.  Otherwise it’s a rather uneventful forecast until Saturday when we introduce a gusty southwesterly wind (up to 30 MPH).  The bright side of that southwesterly breeze will be that temperatures will reach the middle 40s.

The milder air will be very brief as a cold front moves through Saturday night and provides snow shower potential as early as Sunday morning.  We should remain dry for the better part of the first half of next week, but we’ll be keeping a close watch for a potential winter storm brewing the middle to latter portions of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Trace
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/15/quiet-weather-for-now/

Jan 14

Bitterly Cold Start, But Moderation On The Way…

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“Relaxation” Of The Bitterly Cold Pattern…That forecast package title sure wouldn’t suffice describing the weather outside this morning.  It’s a downright bitter feel, including below zero temperatures throughout north-central Indiana.  Patchy freezing fog and scattered flurries are also with us this morning.  With some sunshine later, we’ll “warm” into the lower 20s this afternoon.  A few flurries may fly tonight as a weak disturbance moves through the region.

Sunshine will be with us to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.  Average highs this time of the year are in the middle 30s so we’ll be closer to average Thursday and Friday- though it’ll likely feel much warmer simply based off just how cold it’s been as of late.  Gusty southwest winds will blow milder air in here briefly Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 40s.

A cold front will sweep the state Sunday morning with a possible rain shower that’ll quickly transition to scattered snow showers as the colder air filters back into the region.  The next storm system of note arrives early next week.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/14/bitterly-cold-start-but-moderation-on-the-way/

Jan 12

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

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A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

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The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

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The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/looking-ahead/

Jan 12

Turning Colder; Icy Mix To Light Snow Before Ending…

Greatest ice accumulations set up from Indianapolis and points north last night and this morning.  Glaze reached just under one quarter inch here across southern Boone County.

The icy mixture will transition to light snow before ending mid morning.

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Temperatures will also be sliding backwards through the day.  Morning highs in the lower 30s will fall into the 20s this afternoon.

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The big push of arctic air arrives tonight into Tuesday and sets the stage for widespread sub-zero lows Wednesday morning.  Wind chills will, of course, be even colder (10 to 20 below zero).

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We’ll be back later tonight to talk about what lies ahead in the longer term.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/turning-colder-icy-mix-to-light-snow-before-ending/

Jan 11

Ice Storm Warning…

Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/11/ice-storm-warning/

Jan 10

Ice Storm For Some Sunday Evening; Late Night Thoughts…

Just a quick update to give you some fresh thoughts on the next winter storm that will impact central Indiana.

We bracket the hours of 1p-3p for the onset of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana.

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Coverage and intensity of freezing rain will increase as we progress through the evening hours.  We suggest hunkering down at home (or at a loved ones home) for the Colts game, as roadways will likely become hazardous during the game.

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Early data hot off the press this evening is suggesting Ice Storm Warning criteria (freezing rain amounts of 0.25″, or greater) is met through the heart of central Indiana.

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A fresh push of cold, arctic, air will ooze back into central Indiana during the day Monday. We think overnight lows head back into the single digits Tuesday morning and below zero Wednesday morning.  Needless to say, should power outages take place, a nasty situation will develop with the new push of cold air.

Please stay tuned to your favorite media or means of obtaining weather information, as this will be an impactful event for central Indiana tomorrow afternoon into Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/10/ice-storm-for-some-sunday-evening-late-night-thoughts/

Jan 10

Next Winter Storm Moves In Sunday Afternoon…

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Highlights:

  • Dangerous Cold Continues This Morning
  • Winter Storm Arrives Sunday Afternoon
  • Another Push Of Below Zero Air Mid Week
  • Watching Thursday

Sunny Today; Next Winter Storm Arrives Tomorrow…While it’s always nice to see the sun, it won’t do much to warm temperatures this afternoon.  Another frigid morning (all reporting sites across central Indiana went below zero again this morning) will only “warm” into the upper teens this afternoon.

The big focus of this forecast package has to do with what lies ahead Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Model data continues to suggest central Indiana deals with another winter storm.  A model average puts down between 0.30″ to 0.50″ (liquid equivalent).  On a standard 10:1 ratio, that would be between 3-5″ of snow, and if that 0.30″-0.50″ all fell in the form of freezing rain we would be looking at a damaging ice storm.  As of now it appears as if we deal with the entire wintry precipitation gamut.

Moisture will surge north Sunday afternoon and we bracket the hours between 3-5p for the onset of wintry precipitation.  Low pressure will organize along the Gulf Coast and move northeast into the Tennessee Valley Monday morning.  At the same time, another dome of arctic high pressure will begin to sink south.  The end result should be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain that eventually transitions to snow through the nighttime Sunday.  Obviously timing that transition will be crucial in determining just how much snow and ice accumulates.  As of now we’ll split the expected liquid equivalent down the middle and say 0.40″ falls across central Indiana.  Of that 0.40″, 0.20″ may fall as freezing rain (glaze) and 0.20″ may fall as snow (which would stack up to a couple inches on the standard 10:1 ratio).  Areas north of Indianapolis run a better chance of seeing the transition to snow faster while areas south of the city run a higher chance at accumulating more freezing rain.  Stay tuned.

We go back into the deep freeze Tuesday-Wednesday and eye Thursday for the possibility of another storm system.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″
  • 7-Day Freezing Rainfall Forecast: 0.20″ 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/10/next-winter-storm-moves-in-sunday-afternoon/

Jan 09

Wintry Sandwich Sunday Evening-Monday; More Bitter Cold Follows.

Busy times continue in the good ole weather office as we get set to deal with yet another winter storm during the upcoming weekend.

First, we’ll deal with more below zero temperatures tonight and Saturday morning as overnight lows bottom out between 5 and 10 degrees below zero tonight area-wide.  Wind chill values, of course, will be even colder (-15 to -25).  Dangerous cold continues with considerable blowing and drifting in the open country.  Saturday will be the “calm before the storm” with unseasonably cold conditions continuing, but with lighter winds and sunshine.

Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday and we’ll begin to introduce precipitation into your forecast as early as Sunday afternoon (not a bad day for two classic back-to-back playoff games if you ask me).  Here’s our best idea of what you can expect statewide after reviewing all guidance today:

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Some initial thinking would place the following numbers (a bit early to be too specific), and we caution this will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

Snow accumulation of 2″-4″ across north-central Indiana, particularly just north of Indianapolis.  In the “mainly snow” zone, expect amounts of 3″-6″.  Ice storm criteria accumulation of freezing rain is possible (0.25″, or greater) across central Indiana, as well.  South of the city, early ideas suggest roughly 1″-2″ of snow and glaze potential closer to that potentially damaging 0.25″ amount.  Again, we state that these numbers are very early ideas and will have to be fine tuned.

Precipitation should initially overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon in the form of sleet and snow (more sleet south-central, more snow north-central) before transitioning to more of a sleet and freezing rain event.  Finally, we anticipate the wintry mixture of precipitation to end as snow before moving out Monday morning.  Timing and duration of precipitation types will obviously determine how much ice and snow a given location sees.

Another big item we want to be sure to mention is that yet ANOTHER push of bitter arctic air will invade behind this storm and set the stage for another dangerously cold period Tuesday into Wednesday (back below zero we go)!

Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast over the weekend!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/wintry-sandwich-sunday-evening-monday/

Jan 09

Catching Up On Where We’ve Been And What Lies Ahead…

January is off to a frigid start. After a mild December, January is certainly reminding folks that there’s a lot of winter in this pattern. Precipitation is running above normal…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/catching-up-on-where-weve-been-and-what-lies-ahead/

Jan 08

Fresh Arctic Air Inbound; Winter Storm Potential Sunday Night-Monday.

Tonight’s video update discusses the heavier burst of snow inbound, fresh arctic air/ dangerous wind chill values Friday, and takes a look at more “wintry mischief” brewing for late in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/08/fresh-arctic-air-inbound-winter-storm-potential-sunday-night-monday/

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