Category: Forecast

Jun 20

Needed Dry Time Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-06-20 at 8.02.30 AMHighlights:

  • Dry day coming with increasing sunshine
  • Strong to severe storms possible Sunday
  • Back to an unsettled pattern most of next week

The remnants of Bill continue to push east and we’re now enjoying a drier northeast wind that will shift to the northwest with time by evening.  A nice day is coming, friends!

We’ll watch a thunderstorm complex to our NW tonight and forecast models handle this complex differently.  We’re going with the idea that the complex will weaken moving into central IN during the overnight, but a clap of thunder is certainly possible late tonight/ early Sunday.  The radar will look very impressive to our NW by evening.  Additional afternoon/ evening storms may develop Sunday and these could become strong to severe, as well.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop as we progress into next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/20/needed-dry-time-coming/

Jun 18

Thursday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/thursday-evening-video-update-3/

Jun 18

Afternoon Storms; Watching Bill’s Remnants…

Screen Shot 2015-06-18 at 7.37.07 AMHighlights:

  • Afternoon showers and storms
  • Watching Bill’s remnants
  • Active pattern remains

The day is dawning with overcast skies and humid conditions. Dew points in the lower 70s coupled with lower 70 degree air temperatures have things feeling very tropical.  Showers and thunderstorms will fire later this afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe. With the moisture-laden air mass in place, torrential rainfall will remain likely with storms.

As we shift into Friday and Saturday all eyes will be on the remnant moisture of what once was Tropical Storm Bill. Latest model data focuses in on southern IN for the greatest threat of widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, including rainfall amounts of 3″ to 4″ in spots. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on the precise track of Bill’s remnants, but, as of now, folks downstate are at highest risk of flooding problems.

As we move into next week the active and stormy times continue.  There are questions in regards to an expanding heat dome.  Latest data has backed down dramatically on the potential heat next week.  With the wet ground in place it’s hard to argue with that idea.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/18/afternoon-storms-watching-bills-remnants/

Jun 15

Humid, Stormy Times Continue; Watching The Tropics…

Screen Shot 2015-06-15 at 7.39.21 AMHighlights: 

  • Humid feel continues
  • Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday
  • Watching tropical remnants closely

We’re waking up to similar weather conditions that we dealt with to close the weekend- scattered heavy downpours and very humid. It certainly won’t rain the entire day, but scattered storms will bubble up again as we progress into the afternoon and evening.  With the humid air mass locked in, any shower or storm that develops will produce torrential downpours.

A frontal boundary will slip into the region tomorrow and provide enough lift to present a strong to severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.  This front will stall out near the area and serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development through the upcoming few days.

The tropics continue to be of interest later this week, but we stress that forecast models are really struggling with handling the details.  Solutions range from a flood threat presented by the European and Canadian; however the GFS would suggest the tropical remnants don’t get involved in our pattern.  We’re leaning more towards the Euro/ Canadian blend as of now as we feel the SE ridge will help steer the tropical remnants northeast into the Ohio Valley late week (timing may have to be find tuned as we draw closer).  Again, stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″ – 3″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/15/humid-stormy-times-continue-watching-the-tropics/

Jun 13

Today Is The Pick Of The Week; Wet And Stormy Pattern Looms…

Screen Shot 2015-06-13 at 9.02.37 AMHighlights:

  • Best weather of the week is today
  • Strong to severe storm potential Sunday and Monday
  • Widespread heavy rain threat mid week
  • Unsettled pattern continues

We’re opening the weekend with dry skies across central IN, along with a very tropical feel.  The combination of a nearby weak boundary and the humid air mass will help fuel isolated to widely scattered storms this afternoon.  That said, overall coverage of storms will be reduced from what we saw Friday.  Most of the day will feature dry conditions.

We’ll begin to increase storm chances as we rumble into the second half of the weekend and on into the new work week.  Some of these may be strong to severe Sunday-Monday, including strong damaging winds and large hail.

Attention will then shift to mid week and the potential of an excessive rainfall event.  Modeling is leaning towards tracking a tropical disturbance north out of the western GOM (Gulf of Mexico) before shifting northeast around the periphery of a southeastern ridge.  Very heavy rainfall would result if this idea pans out.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals) 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/13/today-is-the-pick-of-the-week-wet-and-stormy-pattern-looms/

Jun 10

Air You Can Wear…

Screen Shot 2015-06-10 at 6.36.50 PMHighlights:

  • Hot and humid weather
  • Better storm chances return Friday PM
  • North briefly drier Saturday
  • “Rinse and repeat” pattern early to mid next week

Heat and humidity will remain the big weather story Thursday with only an isolated storm chance.  Most should stay rain-free Thursday.  Better rain and storm chances will rumble into the central IN picture Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.  We think a frontal boundary will slip just far enough south to provide drier times from I-70 and points north Saturday.  Live across the southern half of the state?  Prepare for more scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Everyone will get back in on the periodically stormy times during the second half of the weekend into next week.  It’ll be plenty humid as well.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.0″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/10/air-you-can-wear/

Jun 09

Hello Summer…

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 9.13.29 PMHighlights:

  • Big time heat and humidity through late week
  • Watching storm chances Wednesday night
  • Briefly drier air Saturday
  • Summer-like pattern continues next week

The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity.  Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday.  We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening.  Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening.  Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.

A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night.  Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now.  Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/09/hello-summer/

Jun 08

Storms Tonight; Heat Builds This Week…

Screen Shot 2015-06-08 at 5.57.06 PMHighlights:

  • Stormy tonight for some
  • Heat builds this week
  • Better storm chances return for the weekend

A cold front remains off to our northwest as we type this and big storms are firing across northern portions of the state.  We’ll keep a close eye on those as they move southeast tonight and begin to pick up more forward momentum in the coming hours.  They’ve had a history of producing damaging hail.  Remain weather-aware this evening.

Thankfully we’ll begin to inject a drier air mass (briefly) into the region Tuesday.  A nice day is coming with lower humidity.  Most of the second half of the work week will also remain dry, but as humidity increases we have to mention the threat of an isolated to widely scattered storm.  The big story will be the heat as highs push into the 90 degree territory.  Prepare to sweat!

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will push back into the region over the upcoming weekend.  We’re not forecast a complete washout either Saturday or Sunday, but with a very humid air mass in place, any shower or storm that develops will have the capability of producing torrential downpours.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1.5″ – 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/08/storms-tonight-heat-builds-this-week/

Jun 07

Very Active Night Ahead…

An active and noisy night is on tap, friends, as multiple storm clusters move through central Indiana.  Initially, the concern is hoisted for severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. As the night progresses, the growing concern will be flash flooding as storms train over the same area, potentially leading to 3″+ rains in localized areas.

We’re currently eyeing convection firing to our northwest and these storms will push southeast this evening.  They will move into a very warm, humid, and unstable environment and will likely strengthen as they ride into north-central IN later this evening.  Here’s a snap shot of the radar valid at 8p:

8pNote as we progress into the overnight, additional storms are likely and flooding concerns are on the rise due to this. Radar valid at 3a:

3aRainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be common tonight across central IN, but some localized reports of 3″-4″ can’t be ruled out where storms train.  Here’s a look at potential rainfall numbers through 5a:

hrrr_t_precip_indy_16We note PWATs (precipitable water values) pushing close to 2″ overnight and this increases our confidence on the heavy rainfall potential, as well:

hires_pwat_indy_20Stay weather-aware tonight, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/07/very-active-night-ahead/

Jun 03

Warmer Days; Continuing To Watch Sunday Evening…

Screen Shot 2015-06-03 at 9.37.15 PMHighlights:

  • More like summer
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Keeping a close eye on Sunday night storm threat
  • Unsettled to open the week

The story to wrap up the work week will be one much more typical of early June- warmer days are on deck with increasing humidity.  The combination of the increasingly muggy air mass coupled with a weak upper level disturbance, could ignite a shower or storm Friday.  Most of the day will be dry, however.  The upcoming weekend will feature beautiful weather conditions- dry and warm to hot.  We continue to watch a storm complex that could deliver a round of strong to severe cells (damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern) Sunday evening and night. We’ll have to tighten up potential timing as we progress closer to Sunday, but think most of the daytime hours will be dry.  Early next week will likely open a bit unsettled.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/03/warmer-days-continuing-to-watch-sunday-evening/

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