Category: Forecast

Dec 24

Merry Christmas Eve…

screen-shot-2016-12-24-at-8-03-42-amHighlights:

  • Areas of fog
  • Rising temperatures Christmas night
  • Turning more seasonable next week

Ah, Christmas Eve…From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a blessed holiday season.  It’s hard to believe Christmas Eve is upon us.  Despite areas of fog and an overcast, chilly day, weather really won’t present much of a challenge, locally, for travelers or last-minute shoppers (surely we don’t have any of those in central IN).  😉  Rudolph will be needed tonight as areas of fog and low clouds remain across portions of the state.

Conditions will remain damp and chilly into Christmas as most of the day remains in the 30s.  Our air flow will shift to the south Christmas afternoon and provide a late day boost on the thermometer into the 40s after dark and near 50 by midnight.  As we see the southerly wind erode the chilly conditions in place we’ll also have to be on the look out for a passing shower Christmas afternoon.

Better shower coverage will push in ahead of the cold front Monday morning.  An embedded clap of thunder is also possible.  Winds will shift to the NW with the passage of the cold front Monday afternoon and cooler air will spill into central IN Monday night. That high you see in the upper 50s will come just prior to the frontal passage.

After the mild start Monday, seasonable temperatures will return next week.  Models are struggling with handling a piece of energy the middle of next week.  We’ll keep an eye on it over the next day or so.  Scattered snow showers will likely accompany a push of colder air Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/merry-christmas-eve/

Dec 19

Frigid Open To The Week; Wet Christmas?

screen-shot-2016-12-19-at-8-58-45-amHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold to open the week
  • Mid week snow chances
  • Wet Christmas

Bundle Up…The frigid theme of December 2016 continues as overnight lows dipped to between 3 and 6 below zero for most central IN reporting sites.  By the way, IND is running (6) degrees below average, month-to-date.  Needless to say, December 2016 (top) is nothing like December 2015 (bottom).

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2016

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2015

Though still chilly, temperatures will moderate into mid week before our next system rolls in.  Clouds will increase Wednesday and give way to a chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning as upper level energy rotates overhead.  Models likely will have to play “catch up” again with this mid week system and we’ll keep a close eye on data.

As we look at Christmas, itself, a warmer regime looks to build in, courtesy of a southwest flow.  This is in response to the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle and driving a rather intense storm system northwest through the Plains states.  Blizzard conditions will likely result northwest of the low track while showers and thunderstorms develop in the warm sector, including the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley.  We’ll introduce a chance of thunderstorms into our Christmas Day forecast, as well.

Longer-term, a rather significant pattern shift will continue to close the month of December into early January and this will drive a shift from the bitterly cold conditions to much milder times as we open 2017.  Winter fans, have no fear, the seeds are already being planted for a return to frigid and active times just beyond the new year…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-open-to-the-week-wet-christmas/

Dec 17

Icy Concerns Grow Again Tonight…

After a night of freezing rain, many roadways throughout central IN remain glazed over and hazardous as of this update.  If you absolutely don’t have to travel today, please don’t.  Allow road crews to do their job.  Additionally, we have growing concerns of a new round of freezing rain to sleet and eventually snow tonight.  Lingering moisture on roadways will result in “flash freeze” conditions and treacherous travel tonight into Sunday.

First, a tip of the hat to short-term modeling, including the NAM, for suggesting we’d have a very difficult time eroding the shallow arctic air at the surface across most of central IN today.  While we never bought into the mid/ upper 50s idea the GFS and Euro were once suggesting, we did initially think 40s were in store today.  Forget about it.  Mid to potentially upper 30s are the best we can do today and temperatures will crash this evening as not one, but two, arctic fronts push through central IN.  Even if we didn’t have additional precipitation inbound tonight, “flash freeze” conditions would develop from lingering moisture and lead to renewed problems on area roadways.  Throw in another wave of low pressure riding along the pressing arctic front and a whole slew of problems will develop yet again from a freezing and frozen precipitation perspective.

Note the incredible temperature gradient from downstate to central and northern Indiana early this afternoon.

hrrr_t2m_indy_6The heavy, dense, arctic air will win out as evening turns into nighttime.  Indianapolis is back to the freezing mark around 6p and into the 20s by 9p.

hrrr_t2m_indy_10

hrrr_t2m_indy_13Temperatures will continue to fall through the day Sunday and by Monday morning central Indiana will be in the single digits, with below zero readings across northern parts of the state.

hires_t2m_indy_49Wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees below zero will be common by Sunday night into Monday morning across central Indiana.

gfs_windchill_indy_8Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across the region into the early afternoon, but begin to expand in coverage and intensity once again by evening.  Note the area of freezing rain expand across central IN, including Indianapolis, between 4p and 7p.

4p

6p

7pFreezing rain will eventually begin to mix with sleet and eventually transition to light snow during the overnight from northwest to southeast.  A coating of snow to less than 1″ is a good bet on the new icy glaze that develops tonight.

When you factor in the current hazardous conditions in place along with the fresh push of arctic air and precipitation tonight, it’s a good idea to hunker down inside and remain off area roadways.  We have big concerns of new travel problems developing by evening across central Indiana.  By this time tomorrow, our attention will turn to the bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chill values developing.

More later, including prospects of snow around Christmas.  As always, you can follow our updates on social media by following us on Twitter (@indywx) and Facebook.  Stay safe!

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/icy-concerns-grow-again-tonight/

Dec 15

Active Winter Pattern Rumbles Along…

screen-shot-2016-12-15-at-7-44-16-pmHighlights:

  • Busy weather weekend
  • Fresh shot of bitterly cold air
  • Christmas week snow chances

Buckle Up For A Busy Winter Pattern…Thursday featured the coldest December 15th high (13 degrees) in a whopping 27 years. Talk about impressive.  This was good for an amazing 26 degrees below average.  Let that sink in…

We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the busy weekend before Christmas with a new round of challenges.  A couple of warm fronts will lift north through central IN Friday.  Snow showers may accompany the first warm front early Friday before the second warm front lifts north Friday night.  This will result in more widespread wintry precipitation, likely to begin as a period of light snow before a quick transition to sleet and freezing drizzle during the overnight.  Temperatures will warm overnight Friday and precipitation will change to light rain Saturday morning.  That’s when our attention turns to the first of two cold fronts that will sweep through the state.  The first cold front will lead to a quick changeover to sleet and snow Saturday evening (thinking between 6p-8p as of now).  As a secondary wave of moisture moves northeast along the boundary, expect a light accumulation of snow Saturday night.  The second cold front (arctic) will blow through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and lead to a frigid Sunday.  That 25 degree high you see Sunday will come at midnight as temperatures crash through the day.  Add in a stiff northwest wind and wind chill values will fall below zero (yet again) in the Sunday-Monday time frame.

We’ll briefly calm things down during the early Christmas week period and remain cold.  Our next storm system is slated for a mid week arrival and could deliver a round of accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  More on that after this weekend system.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
  • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-winter-pattern-rumbles-along/

Dec 14

“Not Fit For Man Nor Beast;” Winter Issues This Weekend…

screen-shot-2016-12-14-at-9-20-36-pmHighlights:

  • Bitter feel
  • Weekend storm
  • Reinforcing arctic air to open Christmas week

Heavy Winter Gear Required…An arctic cold front slammed into central IN Wednesday evening with plummeting temperatures, strong and gusty (40 MPH) winds, blowing snow, and just a downright “rude” feel.  Those bitter conditions will remain through the close of the work week, including dangerous wind chills Thursday.  In fact, we still expect wind chills to fall into the 10-20 degree below zero range through the morning, and remain below zero most of the day.

We’ll flip the page and turn our attention to our next storm system as we rumble into the weekend.  Clouds will increase Friday and moisture will begin to override the cold air locked in place at the surface by the evening and nighttime.  With sub-freezing air still present, this moisture will likely fall as a combination of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana Friday night.  Eventually, temperatures will warm (briefly) above freezing Saturday morning and allow precipitation to transition to light rain.  Before that takes place, slick road conditions could develop Friday night from the sleet/ freezing rain mixture.  Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on the latest data as it comes in.

Almost as fast as we go above freezing Saturday, temperatures will begin to fall once again during the afternoon and evening as heavy, dense, arctic air “oozes” southeast.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride northeast along the pressing arctic cold front.  We expect precipitation to break out yet again Saturday evening and night, and fall as a wintry mix before ending as snow.  (Additional light ice and snow accumulation potential).

Temperatures will fall through the day Sunday along with strong and gusty NW winds.  Wind chills will once again fall below zero Sunday evening into Monday morning…

While the frigid conditions will “relax” as we go into the middle of Christmas week, we have an eyebrow raised for the potential of “fun and games” just beyond the current 7-day period.  Far too early for specifics, but the potential of wintry prospects around Christmas are alive and kicking…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″
  • Snowfall:  1″ – 2″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/not-fit-for-man-nor-beast-winter-issues-this-weekend/