Category: Forecast

Mar 15

In The Deep Freeze…

Highlights:

  • Morning snow showers end
  • Slowly moderating temperatures
  • Wet St. Patrick’s Day
  • Sunshine returns this weekend

Heavy Winter Gear Required…The calendar may say mid-March, but Old Man Winter refuses to go away without having the last word.  To put things into perspective, our forecast high of 32° today is colder than our average low for the 15th (33°)!  To make matters worse, gusty north winds are pushing the wind chill factor into the single digits this morning.  Bundle up!  Moving forward, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue through the morning hours before ending as we progress through the afternoon.

After a cold start Thursday, a moderating trend will develop by afternoon.  Plentiful sunshine should be with us Thursday before clouds increase late in the day in advance of a warm front lifting northeast.  Showers will develop Friday (could begin as a touch of freezing rain, but not expecting problems Thursday night/ early Friday morning), but temperatures will actually reach seasonal levels despite the wet, breezy conditions.

Sunshine returns this weekend and though it’ll be cooler Saturday when compared to St. Patrick’s Day, considering how cold we’ve been of late, it won’t feel that bad. Early morning snow showers will target eastern and northeastern portions of the state before sunshine returns.

The next weather maker will provide showers Monday before we focus in on the middle of next week with potential of a more significant storm to deal with…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/in-the-deep-freeze/

Mar 14

Quiet Start Gives Way To Localized Snow Squalls This Afternoon…

Tuesday is off to a frigid, but quiet start to the day.  Temperatures are in the upper 10s for most central Indiana neighborhoods with sunshine to start the day.  Gusty north winds are putting our wind chills into the single digits this morning.

As we progress through the afternoon hours, clouds will increase and scattered snow showers will develop.  Highs will remain below freezing today- generally in the upper 20s to around 30.

With very cold air aloft, a lobe of upper level energy, and some lake enhancement, scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.  Additionally, snow squall parameters are high and locally intense bursts of snow can also be expected as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.  These won’t impact everyone, but where they do occur, expect rapidly reduced visibility and a quick accumulation.  Forecast radar shows this potential as we move into the afternoon hours, with a couple of lake effect streamers continuing Wednesday morning.

Forecast radar 5p.

Forecast radar 3a.

Wednesday will be another frigid day, especially by March standards.  We’ll focus in on the morning hours for the most widespread snow shower activity with quieter times expected as we move through the day.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-start-gives-way-to-localized-snow-squalls-this-afternoon/

Mar 13

A Wintry Week…

Highlights:

  • Snow develops
  • Bitterly cold air for March
  • St. Patrick’s Day showers

Snow Develops…Drier air is “eating away” at the snow shield as it attempts to advance eastward this morning.  Eventually, we’ll moisten the atmosphere up enough to allow snow to push into the greater Indianapolis region by late morning.  Snow will accumulate this morning, but marginal temperatures, that high March sun angle, and the fact most of the snow will be falling during the afternoon, we don’t anticipate accumulation issues this afternoon.  Reinforcing cold air will filter back into the region tonight and last through mid week.  With this late season arctic air, additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will continue.  With all of that said, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing accumulation forecast.  Expect an inch, or less, for the city, itself, increasing to 2″-5″ for north-central Indiana (where lake effect will add to the totals) for storm totals through Wednesday.

Dry conditions return late Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold will continue.  Our next storm system arrives on the scene St. Patrick’s Day and with blustery, chilly conditions in place, showers added to the mix will feature “raw” weather conditions.  As it stands now, we are going with a more optimistic approach for the weekend, including a dry forecast with increasing sunshine.  After the cold week ahead, we will have earned it!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-wintry-week/

Mar 12

Work Week Opens Snowy…

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably cold
  • Snowy Monday
  • Cold week ahead

Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/work-week-opens-snowy/

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-finally-shows-up/