Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Hoping for PM sun
- Scattered showers midweek
- Snow flurries/ showers to end the week
- Warm Christmas week ahead
We’re rumbling closer to Christmas with each and every passing day. Thankfully, for the most part this week, weather will be nice for shoppers and early travelers. Two systems of note are slated to impact the area this week- a band of scattered showers will move through here with a frontal boundary Wednesday. Secondly, upper level energy will team up with a shot of arctic air to provide a flurry/ snow shower opportunity Friday.
The 500mb chart Friday shows upper level energy capable of producing flurries/ scattered snow showers. Source: NCEP
Unfortunately for you winter lovers out there, the cold coming will leave about as quickly as it arrives. We’re back to a warm and moist SW flow early next week that will lead to more unseasonably warm temperatures Christmas week (new possible records may be set), along with showers returning to our forecast as early as Monday.
Warm and wet weather returns early next week. Source: Weatherbell.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/15/brief-shot-of-arctic-air-coming/
Highlights:
- Warmth is the big story now
- Showers and t-storms increase
Relatively quiet weather remains in the near-term period. A fast moving disturbance will cross the state this morning and could spark a light shower or sprinkle, but we’ll get back to increasingly sunny conditions this afternoon and evening.
Moisture will begin to return as we close the week and head into the weekend, but it’s really not until the second half of the weekend that we begin looking at more widespread rain.
As a SW flow begins to transport Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture north, a light passing shower is possible Friday evening and Saturday.
Despite the increase in cloudiness and threat of a passing shower, it won’t keep us away from flirting with records Saturday, and note the widespread portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley that will also be in jeopardy of setting new records.
Source: Weatherbell.com
Much better rain and storm chances ramp up Sunday afternoon into Monday.
PWATs (precipitable water values) increase dramatically during the aforementioned time period and could help fuel locally heavy rains during that time period, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.
Cooler air will arrive early next week, but remain significantly above normal. We’ll discuss the longer range a bit later…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/09/record-warmth-coming-rain-and-storms-as-well/
Highlights:
- AM fog gives way to sunshine
- Another fast moving disturbance moves through Tuesday night-Wednesday
- Major warmth
- Stormy finish
A quick glance at the updated 7-day shows two things, a lack of cold air and a rather active time of things. In the near term, it remains a relatively quiet period. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots this morning (especially north-central IN) and another fast moving disturbance in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.
The big story as we move into the back half of the week is the unseasonably warm regime that will have many asking “What season are we in?” We’ll aim for the upper 50s Thursday, around 60 Friday, and upper 60s Saturday as a strong SW flow develops in advance of our next storm system
Warmth will reach it’s peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell
While a scattered, fast moving, shower is possible Saturday, the big story will be the warmth and a gusty SW breeze.
Our storm system will grow closer Sunday and we’ll ramp up rain and storm chances accordingly during that period. Our two most trusted global models handle things differently as we progress into the Sunday-Monday time frame (strength, track, and timing), and we’ll need to continue to fine tune that particular period as we move forward. As it stands now we’ll forecast rain and thunderstorms to become widespread Sunday before colder air arrives on the backside of the storm. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/07/what-season-is-this-active-pattern-develops/
Highlights:
- Freezing Fog
- Tracking Two Upper Air Disturbances
- Mild Finish To Next Week
In the short-term, “dirty” high pressure will remain in control of our weather as we welcome in the weekend. We label this a “dirty” high as a local inversion has resulted in plenty of low clouds and fog over the past couple days, despite high pressure being overhead. Unfortunately, the weekend will get off to a similar gloomy, foggy start. With temperatures below freezing overnight and Saturday morning, areas of freezing fog can once again be anticipated. Take it slow if you must be out and about early Saturday. We keep our fingers crossed that we’ll be able to mix things up just enough to allow for at least some sunshine come afternoon.
The upcoming week will feature two upper air disturbances tracking across the state. One comes Monday and the second arrives Wednesday. Both will offer up an increase in cloudiness and a light shower chance.
Monday’s 500mb chart shows the first of two upper air disturbances set to cross the state. Source: NCEP
Another upper air disturbance will offer up shower chances Wednesday. Source: NCEP
Once we get to late next week, a southwesterly air flow will take control and pump unseasonably warm air into the Mid West and Ohio Valley. The mild air will be out ahead of an approaching storm system next weekend and we still anticipate changes as we progress into mid month…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/04/happy-weekend/
Highlights:
- Moderating temperatures into the weekend
- Quiet weather
- Weak system early next week
In the short-term there’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels (of your time :-)) with the forecast. High pressure will build in for a very quiet time of things as we head into the first weekend of December.
A weak weather system (upper air disturbance), noted below on the European ensembles, will move through the area in the Sunday afternoon-Monday time frame. Moisture will initially be limited with this system, but we’ll include mention of a light shower/ sprinkle in association with this. Eventually, this upper air energy will help energize a storm system along the east coast early next week.
We still target mid and late month for a flip towards a much more active pattern around these parts…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/03/extended-stretch-of-quiet-weather-now/
Highlights:
- Sunshine returns
- Rain and snow showers Wednesday
- Extended period of dry weather coming with a moderating trend
Showers raced through central IN during the overnight, but those are now long gone and clouds are beginning to decrease from west to east across the state. All-in-all, a very nice Tuesday, and first day of December, is on the way!
Enjoy it, as Wednesday’s weather will be much more like you’d expect around this time of the year. Clouds will increase late tonight and give way to mixed rain and snow showers, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This is in association with the area of low pressure, currently impacting MN with snow, that will slowly move east into the Great Lakes.
Our cold and wintry “set back” will be short-lived as we get into an extended stretch of dry and milder weather heading into the weekend. The culprit? An expanding ridge across the northern tier.
This ridge looks to remain in control of our weather through early to middle next week before our next storm system may impact the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/01/sunshine-returns-finally-wednesday-snow-showers/
Highlights:
- Showers/ drizzle return tonight
- Scattered snow showers Wednesday
- Dry and mild to close the week
We’re getting the work week kicked off with weather conditions that have been common over the Thanksgiving weekend- cloudy and cold. Moisture will return slowly this evening and overnight with showers and drizzle moving back in. We’re not looking at significant rains by any stretch of the imagination, but this is what the radar could look like during the overnight, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
Showers will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free. Colder air will slowly move back into the state Wednesday morning and as wrap-around moisture pivots through central and northern IN Wednesday scattered snow showers will result. We’re not looking at any accumulations, but it’ll be nice to see a little of the white stuff falling.
Once our Wednesday snow showers exit we’ll get back to dry skies and mild temperatures to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/30/considerable-cloudiness-remain-mid-week-snow-flakes/
Highlights:
- Periods of rain
- Turning colder
- Finally begin to dry things out
We sure hope you enjoyed those pleasant conditions on Thanksgiving Day, as rain (and eventually colder air) is settling in for the long haul.
The overall set-up shows a cold front slicing it’s way through the mid section this morning. This front will continue to slowly settle southeast and much colder air will “ooze” into the area directly behind the boundary later tonight and Saturday. Unfortunately, once the front passes to our south, additional disturbances will move along the front and enhance rain across our area from time to time over the weekend.
Here’s a snap shot, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, of what we the surface map/ simulated radar may look like as we rumble through the Thanksgiving weekend.
As mentioned above, the temperature story will also be a focal point later tonight. Notice the incredible difference within just a matter of miles as we go deeper into the weekend. While central IN will be in the “transition” period tonight, all of the area will be on the cold side of the boundary Saturday. That forecast high in the upper 40s that you see above in our 7-day will be at midnight as most of tomorrow will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
We’ll continue to deal with unsettled and rather “raw” conditions into the early portions of next week, but we should finally be able to shake the damp conditions by Wednesday. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on yet another system late next week, but models keep this storm to our south as of now. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/27/5767/
Highlights:
- Extended wet and raw stretch of weather
- Turning colder next week
First and foremost, happy Thanksgiving from all of us at IndyWx.com! We hope you have a blessed day with friends and family and we’re incredibly thankful for your support of what we’re doing here at IndyWx!
Thanksgiving Day, itself, will be filled with very pleasant weather as a SW flow transports mild air northbound and results in highs around 60 this afternoon with a gusty breeze in place. A scattered shower is possible, but it’s not until we get to late tonight and Black Friday that we expect more widespread rains across the region.
Rain will settle in Friday and temperatures will also go the wrong direction come evening as a cold front passes through the area. This is the first in a series of rain that we’ll deal with over the Thanksgiving weekend. A second surge of rain will arrive Saturday into Sunday, followed by a third push of rain Monday. All total, between 1-2″ of rain is a good bet across a widespread portion of the region between Friday and Monday.
Colder air will settle in by the middle of next week. We’ll have to closely monitor as a fourth system will be in play. It’s far too early for details, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if some sort of wintry precipitation may be in play late next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/26/nice-today-but-a-wet-and-raw-weekend-coming/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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November 22, 2015
Highlights:
- Arctic air begins to moderate
- Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
- Another punch of cold air next weekend
Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many. Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell. Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work). This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.
The visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.
The next few days will feature dry and cold conditions. While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.
We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday. Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period. Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.
Much colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December. Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/22/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/
