One cold front moved through central Indiana last night with rain showers and a notable wind shift. A secondary cold front will sweep through the region later this afternoon. Not only will this deliver reinforcing cold air to wrap up the short work week, but with enough upper level energy and instability, it’ll also serve to ignite some intense snow squalls by evening. This won’t be a “uniform” snow event, but where the squalls develop, expect rapid reduction in visibility (brief white-out conditions), and a quick coating to 1″ of snow. Winds will also gust to 40 MPH by evening and overnight.
Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like later this evening:
4p forecast radar
6p forecast radar
10p forecast radar
If you have travel plans this evening into tonight, please allow extra time to reach your destination as these intense snow squalls lead to brief white-outs and quickly create slick travel. Scattered snow showers will continue into Friday morning, especially across the northern and eastern sections of the state. Friday will be a cold day as highs top out around 30.
More with an updated 7-day forecast later today!
Accordingly, we see the ensemble data flipping to a colder pattern over the upcoming (10) days. Note the low anomalies in the higher latitude regions today (Image 1) versus Day 10 (Image 2).
The pattern developing by Day (10) is one capable of producing another frigid regime- only January style. Cross-polar flow sets up shop and, unlike, December, some blocking is noted, as well. This can help the mean storm track shift further south. (Bye-bye Great Lakes cutters, though Mid Western and Ohio Valley Snow Lovers will find a new worry in the form of suppression potential ;-)). Individual storms will have their respected challenges, as always. As a whole, it’s a very cold, stormy look and a pattern capable of leading to an expanding snow pack across the Lower 48.
We note ensemble data is suggesting high latitude blocking tries to develop towards Day 10. Recall this was the missing ingredient in the bitterly cold blasts of air that occurred during the first few weeks of December. Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the increasingly blocky look to the pattern by Day 10. This would help drive a cold, stormy pattern by early January. Instead of storms cutting, we would see more suppression. With a “stubborn” southeast ridge, things could get interesting across the Ohio Valley from a wintry perspective….
We don’t want to jump the gun, but it the positives can “hook up” over the pole, we stand the chance of locking into a rather lengthy cold, snowy regime as we rumble deeper into the heart of winter.
Summary: A rather mild regime remains as we rumble through Christmas before trending more seasonable next week. From a wintry perspective we need to continue to keep an eye on the period around New Year’s Eve/ Day. Confidence continues to increase on the potential of a return of arctic air come early January.
This is, of course, is in stark contrast to December 2015.
As we move forward, an active pattern awaits between now and the end of the year. This comes after a few days to catch our breath, including moderating temperatures leading up to Christmas.
Christmas Eve will feature overcast skies with areas of fog and drizzle, but the majority of the concentrated rain should fall south of the region. Santa’s ride into central IN should be uneventful, weather-wise.
Temperatures will fall through the day Monday and we should run much closer to seasonable temperatures next week. A couple of additional storm systems will have to be monitored for rain and snow prospects the middle of next week and again around New Year’s Eve/ Day. Initially, we’ll be rather mild, but there may be more in the way of cold air readily available to make the storm system around New Years “more interesting” from a wintry perspective.
