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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-transitional-pattern-over-the-upcoming-10-days/
Sep 20
Time Is Ticking On This Summer Heat…
There are no changes to our ongoing forecast of “bonus” summer-like conditions into early next week. Highs will continue to zoom into the upper 80s and overnight lows will remain well above average (mid-to-upper 60s). (Keep in mind, averages now feature highs in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s).
However, a cold front will approach the middle part of next week and while this won’t be an efficient rain producer, it will serve to deliver a return of fall-like air as we close September and open October. From a precipitation stand point, rainfall amounts look “anemic” at best over the upcoming 7-10 days.
At this distance, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with the FROPA, but many will remain rain-free and even those that do pick up a shower or storm shouldn’t expect significant rains. What will be a much bigger deal will be the return of an authentic fall feel by next Friday, continuing into early October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/time-is-ticking-on-this-summer-heat/
Sep 17
Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…
So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.
That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold. The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow. Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).
Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week. Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.
Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10. This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches. We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/highly-amplified-pattern-making-up-for-lost-time-in-the-summer-department/
Sep 14
Weekly Update: JMA, CFSv2, Euro…
The general consensus between the JMA and CFSv2 is that warmth is the story through Week 2, especially this weekend into next week. JMA first:
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
Before we show the CFSv2, a couple take-aways from the JMA:
- Warmth is most impressive early on (through next week), relative to average
- As cold tries to push, active times will return (finally) to the region from Week 2 on
Now…the CFSv2:
Weeks 1-2
Weeks 3-4
Key take-aways:
- Similar to the JMA, warmth is most impressive early on before a “fight” develops thereafter.
While we can’t show the European Weeklies due to licensing issues, they paint a similar theme, overall. They sing a similar song in the short-term for warmth to close the month, but are much more bullish on the transition to a colder than average first half of October compared to the CFSv2 and JMA.
To sum things up, confidence is high on a summer-like regime to engulf the region through the balance of the second half of September as a ‘Nina-ish pattern takes hold. Late-season summer warmth will rule through next week, including highs in the 85°-90° range at times- developing as early as this weekend. This, of course, comes on the heels of an unusually early cool start to meteorological fall (IND is running a whopping 6° below average, MTD). After the warmth dominates, a transitional pattern should ensue, including more active times (wetter than average as we close September and open October), along with “pops” of colder air. That said, a consistently positive southern oscillation index has us “raising an eye brow” to the aggressively cold start to October such as the Euro implies… Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-update-jma-cfsv2-euro/
Sep 14
BIG Reversal Coming…
Through August and the first half of September, the mean trough position has been located across our part of the country. This has helped lead to an extended period of below normal temperatures and an early start to fall.
Well below normal temperatures have dominated the first half of September.
You knew summer wouldn’t go away without fighting back at least once more, didn’t you?! Sure enough, over the next couple of weeks, ridging will expand across the east and this will provide late-season summer heat in the exact area where it’s been coolest month-to-date.
This will deliver temperature anomalies 5° to 10° above average as we traverse the back half of the month, including highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Meanwhile, our friends out west (where it’s been warm, month-to-date) will begin to experience early winter-like conditions, including high elevation snowfall across the central and northern Rockies.
Looking ahead, after our period of summer-like conditions comes to an end late month, a more transient (active) pattern should develop. This will serve to do a couple of things:
- Lead to a rather wet regime
- Pops of cold air become increasingly likely behind FROPAs
It’ll be interesting to see what the NEW Weeklies look like today, including the European and JMA. We’ll post on our thoughts with both later.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-reversal-coming/