Category: Forecast Models

Jun 30

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

hrrr_ref_mw_4

 

hires_ref_mw_7

 

nerad25

The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

day1otlk_1200

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

hires_ref_mw_13

This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

hires_cape_mw_21

Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

hires_pwat_mw_26

Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Jun 27

Quick Friday Evening Video Update

Seems like a broken record, but more showers and thunderstorms dot the central Indiana landscape this evening and will continue over the weekend, though no all day rains are anticipated.  Additionally, we’re still tracking well below normal air for the all-important holiday weekend next week.  Details in a quick Friday evening video update below!

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-friday-evening-video-update/

Jun 26

Thursday Evening Weather Rambles…

1.) After a relatively dry day (though don’t tell Indy’s northwest communities that) Thursday, rain chances will begin to creep back into our forecast over the weekend as humidity levels…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-weather-rambles/

Jun 24

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week.  That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods.  This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far.  Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

z500_anom_f144_ussm

z500_anom_f240_ussm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

test8

The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

2014062412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

wk1.wk2_20140623.NAsfcT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead.  Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3.  Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

gefs_t2anom_16_conus_1

To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +.  The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

Jun 24

Showers, Thunderstorms Expand In Coverage Later Today.

We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours.  So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.

We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.

nam_z500_uv_vort_mc_4

The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.

20140624_1300_LIT_vis

Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.

nerad24

As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening.  We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70.  Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area.  The upper energy will provide the needed lift.  Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.

The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.

hrrr_ref_indy_9

Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.

Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business?  Email us at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/