Category: Forecast Models

Periods Of Storms; BIG Push Of Chilly Air On The Way…

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Changes…BIG weather changes begin today as a warm front lifts through the region.  This will lead to a warm and windy afternoon with showers and a possible rumble of thunder arriving as early as the morning rush.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, but we also want to note there will be plenty of dry time in between rain drops.  A bigger push of showers and thunderstorms will blow into town tonight into the wee morning hours Friday.  A couple of these storms may reach severe levels, especially for western communities.  Damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern.

Showers and thunderstorms continue Friday, but the bigger weather story will become our temperatures as a MUCH colder air mass rushes into the area Friday evening on a gusty northwest wind.  Falling temperatures can be expected through the afternoon Friday so you’ll want to be sure to pack the jacket and cold weather gear tomorrow.

Chilly Weekend…Well below normal temperatures can be expected this weekend along with unsettled conditions.  Saturday continues to look like a mostly cloudy and blustery day with periods of drizzle and/ or sprinkles.  Sunday will feature more in the way of sunshine, but caution we may also deal with widely scattered light showers.

Timing Issues…We’ll fine tune early next week once our first storm system moves through the region. As of now, we target Tuesday as the best day of showers, but timing issues abound.  More on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent in this great sunset photo on the Carmel/ Zionsville line Wednesday evening. Thanks, John!

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Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Weekly Outlook: Pleasant, But Big Changes Hit Late Week…

– What a beauty of a Sunday evening underway! Temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Mid West are running 15°-20° above where we’d expect them. The recent dry, warm stretch…

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Focusing On The Warmth…

The extended stretch of dry weather will continue well into next week. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures will also moderate from the unseasonably cool conditions for the majority…

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More On The “Typhoon Rule”

Perhaps you’ve heard folks discuss the “typhoon rule” over the past few weeks. What I despise is when people take credit for certain ideas without giving credit where credit is…

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