Nov 10
Here’s a quick video update taking a look more closely at the forecast data for accumulating snow ahead Monday evening, as well as the impressive early season shot of cold…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-updated-on-snow-accumulation-the-cold/
Nov 06
Updated 11.06.13 @ 10:26p
Zionsville, IN For the most part, rainfall totals today have been under what model guidance suggested. For an area still wetter than normal, that’s not a bad thing. We’re now dealing with drier conditions moving into the western parts of the state and colder air building in on a gusty northwest wind! Bundle up on your way out the door tomorrow morning as wind chills will be well into the 20s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 47
After a wet and gloomy Wednesday, it’ll be nice to see the sunshine return Thursday. Prepare for a much colder and blustery day with highs not making it out of the 40s along with a gusty northwest wind around 20 MPH from time to time. You’ll want to have the heavier coat handy as morning wind chills in the 20s will only “warm” into the 30s by afternoon.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 30/ 49
We’ll wrap up the work week with dry and chilly conditions in play. Some mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase Friday afternoon, but won’t result in much more than what would be considered a partly to mostly cloudy sky Friday afternoon.
Saturday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 56
A dry pattern will remain Saturday. Our air flow will back around to a more southwesterly direction Saturday and help boost temperatures to the “warmest” levels of the period. That said, middle 50s are only considered “average” for this time of year. While it won’t be considered anything more than “seasonable,” it’ll be much milder than what lies ahead next week…
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 39/ 52
A slightly cooler air mass will settled into the region Saturday night. Partly cloudy and pleasant weather will be with us as we wrap up the weekend.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 36/ 54
While our attention turns to colder air and a potential snow maker by mid week, you let us “worry” about that. All you need to do is enjoy a dry and pleasant start to the work week, thanks to high pressure.
Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness; developing nighttime rain/ snow mix (1-2″); 31/ 40
We’re keeping a close eye on a developing storm system Tuesday night. At this time, we think strong Canadian high pressure begins to funnel much colder air into central Indiana on brisk north and northeast winds. At the same time, developing upper level energy will dive southeast and assist in beginning to spread precipitation into the state as early as Tuesday afternoon.
While we’re confident in a cold pattern developing for midweek, there are more questions than answers in regards to the exact storm track and the resulting precipitation totals and precise transition to wintry precipitation. While it’s still early, there is the potential for this to be the first true widespread accumulating snow of the young ’13-’14 snow season. Stay tuned.
Wednesday: AM clouds and flurries then decreasing cloudiness; 25/ 36
Again, we’ll have to sort out the timing and precise track with our storm system in the Tuesday-Wednesday period, but for now we think the more significant precipitation is falling to our east by Wednesday with just some lingering AM flurries and MUCH colder weather for your hump day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-forecast-eyeing-snow-next-week/
Nov 05
I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week. Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.
Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:
Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.
HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:
This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above. Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s. Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.
Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days. We’ll be here to do just that. Make it a great Tuesday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/
Nov 04
This is the first time since 2002 that I haven’t produced a winter outlook. Part of the reason behind this is due to the fact that our recent move back from Cleveland, OH to Indianapolis has taken priority. Moving is always a much bigger chore than you expect originally. That said, the upcoming winter of 2013-2014 presents quite the challenge when trying to determine what particular player takes control for the “long haul.” I can’t remember a time when so many variables were at play, presenting quite the headache in trying to determine which one will take the lead. Ultimately, confidence is lower than normal for the winter forecast. That said, “confidence” in something 3-4 months out is never considered high. 🙂
Here are just a few items I’m looking at for the upcoming winter:
1. Data is pointing towards a southeast ridge in play for the better part of the upcoming winter.
The strength and precise position of the ridge will go a long way in aiding our weather here in central Indiana. Southeast ridging isn’t always a bad thing in the winter if you’re a cold and snow fan as storms can’t “escape” harmlessly to our south or east. That said, should we deal with a strong southeast ridge then we’re looking at a warmer, rainier time of things here as opposed to cold and snowy…
2. Modeling suggesting Nino Region 3.4 warms slightly as we progress through the winter months.
The implications here are interesting when we drill down to the “home front.” The following data from similar conditions during December-February in Nino Region 3.4 correlate to a few years that will go down in Hoosier snow lovers dreams…
3. NAO showing signs of going negative when it matters most?
Labeled as the new “NAO Model everyone is looking for” may, perhaps, be just that. This formula has already proven to be incredibly accurate in the past. This was developed by fellow midwestern, Al Marinaro (you can follow him on Twitter at @wxmidwest). In the past I’ve been one to say it’s incredibly difficult to forecast the NAO beyond 2-3 weeks, but we look at water temperatures this time of year to try and get an idea of what may happen in the coming winter months ahead. If Mr. Marinaro is on to something (and it appears that he is) that longstanding idea will all change.
Additionally, to the delight of many cold and snow lovers out there, Mr. Marinaro’s formula suggests we’re heading for a predominantly negative NAO this winter.
4. The normally “highly variable” CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) monthly run has remained consistent as of late in thinking the east is warmer than normal for meteorological winter.
It’s amazing how often this model is shown when forecasting cold, but seemingly forgotten when it’s forecasting warmer than normal conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thoughts-on-winter/
Nov 03
Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p
Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect! While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58
The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours. It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures. Enjoy!
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61
We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60
A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark). While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.
Thursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″); 38/ 55 (falling)
The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.
Friday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48
A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55
Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend. We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday. Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/