Dec 06
The near term period is about as quiet as you’ll get it this time of year so that gives us an opportunity to search for the next “trouble maker.” Out…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/major-warmth-ahead-of-storm-next-weekend/
Dec 05
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-late-next-week-active-times-loom-for-the-2nd-half-of-december/
Dec 03
The updated constructed analog model is in the house and holds steady with the on-going idea from previous months.
Upper air pattern for Jan., Feb., and March
Temperature anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Precipitation anomalies for Jan., Feb., and March
Based on this update, we really don’t see anything that would suggest we need to change our ongoing thinking this winter.
While the mainstream national media seems to continue to push the warmth this winter, we just don’t see it that way. It doesn’t mean that we’re guaranteed to be correct, but at least we’ve outlined our reasoning behind why we disagree with that idea in countless previous posts (that can be found in the archives).
As it stands now, we are really becoming bullish on the possibility we turn much more active for mid and late month. This will come after a relatively quiet and mild first two weeks of December. The SOI has been tanking for several days, but has gone into an all-out tail spin today.
A couple things that come to mind right off the bat with that kind of daily negative value? Poor model performance in the mid range, and an active pattern 10-14 days out. Let’s see how things unfold.
Additionally, latest model data suggests our teleconnections may begin to align in a better fashion for central and eastern cold. Latest runs take the AO slightly negative, the NAO neutral, and trend the PNA back positive towards late month. Not perfect, but we’ll take it.
I heard one prominent national weather source today say December looks warm, quiet, and feature reduced chances of a White Christmas for most compared to normal. Perhaps that will, indeed, be the case. We’re, however, in the camp (small as it may be :-)) that believes a colder and more active period looms leading up to Christmas. We shall see what we shall see…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/constructed-analog-model-holds-steady/
Dec 02
As I sit here in the good ole weather office, snow is falling and the Christmas lights are shining at the McMillan household. Just doesn’t get any better! Unfortunately, for winter lovers out there, the overall weather pattern over the upcoming couple weeks won’t offer up much in the way of wintry precipitation, as strong ridging results in a rather prolonged period of uneventful and mild weather across these parts (at least compared to normals).
The GFS ensembles show ridging expanding over our region this weekend into early next week. Source: Weatherbell.com
That said, there are indications that our weather pattern may be changing enough to at least put us on the playing field for wintry potential as we rumble into the back half of the month, including the all-important Christmas period.
The SOI continues to tank and while the impacts (storminess) of a tanking SOI are delayed, we’re in the time frame now where this may result in busy times, or an active storm track, come mid and late December.
Right on schedule, we see the GFS ensembles going towards a much different look around mid month. Note the heights (ridging) pulling further and further north while the southern stream energizes. This is likely a byproduct of that tanking SOI that we see now.
GFS ensembles. It’s a “night and day” difference out at mid month. Source: Weatherbell.com
We also note the AO, or Arctic Oscillation, trending more in a negative to neutral direction. While still not significantly negative, this is an improvement from a winter lover’s perspective from the positive values we’ve seen of late.
We’re only two days into meteorological winter and still feel very confident about our winter outlook, focusing on the back half of winter for the worst conditions, relative to averages. That said, even though the first couple of weeks of December, as a whole, may not be as cold or snowy as you’d like, it doesn’t mean we can’t reverse things enough to put us in a position to make for more “interesting” times around these parts leading up to Christmas….
Could this be the scene this Christmas across central IN? Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hang-in-there-you-lovers-of-winter/
Dec 01
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-to-meteorological-winter/