Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

Turning Unsettled This Afternoon…

The initial push of moisture will ride into central IN this afternoon (likely between 2p-3p time frame).  Embedded thunder will be a good bet, but the storms pushing in should be in a weakened state compared to what our neighbors to our west will experience a few hours earlier.

1Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday.  The good news?  After the initial round of showers this afternoon, most high school football games could very well be dry tonight.

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3It won’t rain the entire time Saturday, but scattered storms are a good bet through the day.  Some locally heavy rainfall is likely, but rain amounts won’t be uniform.  On average 0.75″-1″ is a good bet.

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kind_2016091521_tqpfSunday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure builds in and supplies a drier air mass.  Flipping the page to next week, the big story will be a late season push of summer heat followed by a significant cold front next weekend.  Behind this front, a true push of bonafide autumn air will push in.  Sweaters and jackets will likely be needed as we put a wrap on September…

No Comments Autumn, Football, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Tracking Two Fronts This Week…

It’s a quiet and cool start to the work week across central Indiana.  In fact, a couple upper 40s are showing up on the morning station plots.  It’s getting to be that time of the year…  (Feel free to click on the image to enlarge).

screen-shot-2016-09-12-at-7-35-53-amTemperatures are running slightly below average, locally, with cooler anomalies across the Northeast.

screen-shot-2016-09-12-at-7-37-20-amHigh pressure will remain entrenched over our region today and supply dry conditions and pleasant humidity levels.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_1Our next storm system will push in Wednesday and as the cold front sags south through the state, it will spark scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10Reinforcing cool air will move in behind the front for a couple days.  Lows in the lower-middle 50s with highs in the upper 70s.

3As we flip the page to the weekend, it still looks rather damp Saturday as another boundary moves in.  This will have more moisture to work with when compared to Wednesday and rain coverage will be more widespread.  As a whole, (7) day rainfall totals should be in the 0.50″-1.00″ range for most.

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…

A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday. 


The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. 

Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN. 


As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today. 


While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals. 


High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend. 


Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro. 

No Comments Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, T-storms