Happy Saturday afternoon to all! This evening’s video covers what continues to look like an active weather pattern, including multiple rain chances ahead for the upcoming week. We also discuss the upper air pattern and the expanding area of heat.
Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/talking-heat-humidity-and-rain/
Aug 16
JAMSTEC Take On Upcoming Fall/ Winter
With each passing day our thoughts turn more and more towards the upcoming busy fall and winter months ahead. Among the vast array of data to sort through, we wanted to show you the latest JAMSTEC (Japan Agency For Marine-Earth-Science And Technology) take on the upcoming fall and winter. Admittedly, we’re still a ways off from being able to tell you with any sort of certainty what the upcoming winter holds in store, as far as the “concrete details” go. That said, thinking, at least here, remains on the side of the camp that believes another colder/ snowier than normal winter lies ahead for our region.
As far as the fall goes, we’re likely to see a predominant southeast ridge dominate the pattern, with more of a “back and forth” fight across our immediate neck of the woods. In some ways, we’re beginning to see this type reflection in the pattern this week.
In any event, the latest JAMSTEC fall (Sept-Nov) idea as far as temperature anomalies go:
Note the southeast ridge should keep the south-central and south-east (on up along the eastern seaboard) a touch warmer than average. The center of the cool will back west for a time to include the Rockies, N Plains, and northern Lakes. Again, more of a back and forth fight here, and quite active!
Before we close, as stated above, we think another cold, snowy winter lies ahead for our area. The JAMSTEC remains bullish on another cold winter (Dec-Feb) for the 3rd month in a row:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/jamstec-take-on-upcoming-fall-winter/
Aug 16
Unsettled Weekend…
Some are waking up to the pitter-patter of rain drops this morning and this is a sign of what’s ahead this weekend. While it won’t rain the entire time, most folks will see beneficial rainfall over the weekend. In this case, rain is a good thing, as we’re running under normal rainfall totals month-to-date by 1.23″.
Morning showers will push through the region before dry conditions return late morning into the early afternoon. Scattered showers will then again “dot” the central Indiana landscape this evening before potentially a more widespread rain moves in overnight.
Forecast radar at 10am:
Forecast radar at 6pm:
Heavier rainfall may push in overnight from the west as low pressure draws closer…
Forecast radar at 10pm:
Sunday will have a more humid feel to the air and scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast:
This is only the beginning of a rather unsettled week ahead, including multiple rain and storm chances. Widespread upcoming 7-day precipitation totals range between 1.5″ and 2″, but locally heavier totals can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/unsettled-weekend/
Aug 15
Crisp, Chilly Start…
|
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
48/ 77 |
58/ 80 |
66/ 80 |
68/ 81 |
63/ 84 |
67/ 88 |
70/ 89 |
Perfect Close To The Work Week…Canadian high pressure will remain in control of our weather to wrap up the work week and supply dry skies and unseasonably cool temperatures. The cool, crisp, autumn like start to the day (most are awaking to temperatures in the 40s) will only warm into the upper 70s this afternoon with lots of sunshine.
Unsettled; More Humid…Multiple disturbances will move through the region over the weekend into next week. While we target a chance of showers Saturday, better chances of rain are ahead Sunday. Rain that tries moving in here Saturday will initially have a difficult time and weaken (not totally dissipate) due to dry air in place on the front end of the weekend.
Temperatures Going Up…It’ll feel very much like summer around these parts late next week as temperatures warm to above normal levels and flirt with the polarizing 90 degree mark.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/15/crisp-chilly-start/
Aug 14
Throw An Extra Blanket On The Bed Tonight…
|
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55/ 78 |
48/ 76 |
56/ 81 |
64/ 83 |
69/ 81 |
70/ 81 |
67/ 85 |
Reinforcing Cool Air Blowing In…A reinforcing push of cool air is blowing into town today and will result in a downright chilly night ahead (especially considering the time of year). A couple showers can still be expected across south-central parts of the state, but won’t amount to much. The big news will be the chilly temperatures tonight as we forecast upper 40s officially in the city and low to mid 40s across northeastern suburbs. Highs will only climb into the middle 70s with lots of sunshine Friday.
Warmer And More Unsettled…Temperatures will moderate into the weekend, but we’re also going to introduce rain chances back into the picture. Most of Saturday will remain rain-free, but we can’t rule out scattered showers and thunderstorms as the first in a series of disturbances tries to overcome initial dry air in place. Better rain and storm chances will prevail Sunday.
Heavy Rain Next Week…Forecast rainfall numbers continue to rise next week as a series of weather makers impacts central Indiana. A good consensus would place 1.5″ to 2″ of rain down, with locally heavier totals. Stay tuned as we fine tune timing.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″-2″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We’re enjoying another colorful sunrise across central Indiana this morning. John Salewicz snapped this scenic photo earlier this morning. Thanks, John!
Throw an extra blanket on the bed tonight! Temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 40s for many.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/14/throw-an-extra-blanket-on-the-bed-tonight/
Aug 13
Cool Close To The Work Week; Longer Range Talk…
Clouds will increase this evening and an isolated shower is possible though most will remain dry. More on this and a look ahead to the weekend and beyond in the…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/cool-close-to-the-work-week-longer-range-talk/
Aug 13
Shower Chance This Evening…
|
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
56/ 77 |
56/ 78 |
53/ 80 |
60/ 85 |
65/ 84 |
67/ 82 |
63/ 83 |
Evening Shower Chance…A frontal boundary will push through the region this evening and while moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised by an increase in cloudiness and an isolated shower as the front moves through. Overall, we’re looking at a beautiful day, along with continued below normal temperatures.
Nice Late Week Stretch…The late week stretch will be dominated by high pressure and slowly moderating temperatures. We’ll start well below normal, but temperatures will creep back to seasonable levels over the weekend.
Unsettled Times Ahead…More unsettled times are ahead late in the weekend into next week. We still have details to iron out, but we’ve introduced rain into the forecast as early as Sunday. Some of the rain may become heavy at times early next week. Stay tuned.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
John Salewicz captured this shot of an autumn looking sky Tuesday morning as unseasonably cool air was pouring in. Thank you, John!
While moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised if a few showers dot the landscape this evening as a reinforcing push of cool air blows in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/shower-chance-this-evening/
Aug 12
Fall-Like Feel!
|
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
59/ 70 |
54/ 76 |
55/ 78 |
56/ 80 |
60/ 82 |
65/ 82 |
69/ 88 |
Fall-Like Breeze…The second of two cold fronts moved through central Indiana overnight. A weak trough of low pressure is yet to pass, but will do so this afternoon and may be accompanied by a couple of showers. Otherwise, we’ll enjoy a stiff northwesterly breeze today and it’ll feel very much like early fall out! The humidity of yesterday is long gone and we’ll really begin to notice the drier feel to the air this evening.
Dry skies and early fall-like temperatures will continue Wednesday. Some may even start the day in the upper 40s away from the city, especially across western suburbs.
Weak Cold Front…A weak cold front will blow through Thursday, but moisture will be limited. While an isolated shower is possible, we chose not to even bring out the shower icon for Thursday, as these will be just that- “isolated.” Most will remain dry and unseasonably cool.
Warming Up…Temperatures will begin to moderate going into the weekend and push to above normal levels early next week. We’ll keep a close eye on the weekend as past forecast model runs suggested some rain may enter the picture Sunday. Most recent runs keep us dry through the weekend, but key on a storm system late Monday into Tuesday with possible beneficial rainfall.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″-0.50″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Fall-like temperatures are ahead over the next couple days. We forecast an official low in the city tonight in the middle 50s, but some upper 40s can be anticipated across western and northwestern suburbs.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/12/fall-like-feel/
Aug 11
Feeling Tropical Now, But Cooler Air Coming…
|
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
68/ 80 |
60/ 74 |
54/ 76 |
55/ 79 |
58/ 80 |
58/ 82 |
64/ 85 |
Air You Can Wear…We’re awaking to lots of fog and very muggy conditions. Dew points remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s (very oppressive)! A shower or thunderstorm will be possible really at any time today, but most likely this afternoon as the first of two cold fronts drops into the region. Similar to yesterday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible with all of the moisture in the air.
A secondary cold front will blow through Tuesday with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’ll get in on a much cooler and drier air flow Tuesday evening and this will set the stage for a very pleasant rest of the work week, including below normal temperatures into the weekend.
Warming Up; Chance Of Storms…Temperatures will moderate and we’ll introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Sunday. Early thinking on next week suggests a potentially unsettled (stormy) one, but warmer than average.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Precipitable water values will once again approach 2″ today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/11/feeling-tropical-now-but-cooler-air-coming/
Aug 10
Unsettled Couple Days Ahead Before A Taste Of Fall By Mid Week…
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to impact central Indiana, along with localized flash flooding (precipitable water values are currently above 2″ in spots and suggest localized very heavy…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/unsettled-couple-days-ahead-before-a-taste-of-fall-by-mid-week/