The Corn Belt and parts of the Ohio Valley will be in a favorable position for periods of storminess as we progress through the early portions of the new week.
It’s an admittedly tricky pattern when it comes down to the all-important details (timing, track, etc.), but just know from this distance, it’s a pattern conducive for thunderstorm development and localized flash flooding.
The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.
Disturbances love to ride northwest to southeast around the periphery of the ridge. Accordingly, the subtle northwest flow aloft will likely send a couple disturbances into the region over the early week stretch.
The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture and precipitable water values (2″+) will promote localized flash flooding within the storm complexes.
We think the initial wave of storms will ride southeast late tonight and early Monday and could encompass SW portions of the forecast area. The pattern is favorable for additional storm complexes to travel southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, however.
With the moisture content in the atmosphere, localized flash flooding will result where training takes place. We caution that this won’t be a uniform event (some neighborhoods will see a half inch of rain this week while others may see as much as 3″-4″). We’ll have to treat each complex as they come and fine tune the specifics within the forecast.
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!