Highlights:
- Heavy rain
- Unseasonably cool
- Turning warmer
- Active, stormy time later in the week
Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene. Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning. The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary. In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today. Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s. Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).
Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening. That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.
We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime. The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!
We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.
The first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.
We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours. We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.
Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours. 