Category: European Model

Jun 24

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week.  That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods.  This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far.  Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

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There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

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The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

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The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead.  Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3.  Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

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To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +.  The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

Jun 17

Still Anticipate Late June Changes…

We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning.  Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy?  Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm.  Note the snow depth on the fence line.  Amazing stuff!

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Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period.  The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.

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This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.

The PSD shows the changes, as well.  Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.

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The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet.  Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days.  Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/

Jun 07

Unsettled Stretch Ahead…

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Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  While some short term forecast models suggest some hefty rainfall totals, we think what’s more than likely to happen is that most neighborhoods see around one half inch late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.  There will be some locally heavier totals reported closer to 1″, but that will be the exception to the rule!  The local air mass is just so dry (as of this evening dew points are still in the lower 50s across central Indiana) and while moisture will increase through the night, it’ll likely be too little too late.  Regardless, don’t be surprised if a rumble of thunder wakes you during the overnight. Some early showers are possible Sunday, otherwise the theme will be a drier one through the day.  While some of our short-term forecast models suggest showers are around Monday, we’re siding more with the GFS and European models and providing a dry start to the work week (we’ll continue to monitor and update if needed Sunday).

The rest of the work week will feature a busy time of things in the good ole forecast office as we track multiple disturbances.  Each one of these will be capable of producing heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  As of now, we’re forecasting heavier rain Tuesday and Friday, but we’ll fine tune the timing as we move forward.

Finally, as we move into next weekend, there are considerable model difference between the GFS and European forecast model.  For now, we’re splitting it down the middle and going with dry skies along with comfortable temperatures Saturday.  Model numbers vary from the upper 40s (GFS) to middle 50s (EC) for overnight lows and lower 70s (GFS) to middle 80s (EC).

More later, friends!  Have a relaxing evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unsettled-stretch-ahead/

Jun 05

Battle Developing Mid/ Late June

As we progress into another weekend, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better for this time of year.  The back half of the weekend will transition to one that’s more unsettled and feature showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.  Modeling today is backing off on the heavy rain event Sunday and hitting another system coming through the pipeline Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy rain.  We’ll keep an eye on things and update our forecast Friday morning.  Regardless, let us worry about Sunday and you be sure to enjoy Friday and Saturday!

The pool of cool will keep things feeling might nice through the first half of the weekend, along with low humidity and plenty of sunshine!

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As we look into the long range, there are some questions that arise.  The questions don’t have to do with warming that’s likely to take place late week 2 (90s within reach), but just how long that ridge and associated dome of heat hangs around.  The European ensembles would imply the bubbling heat ridge will stick around for a few days.

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Meanwhile, it should be noted that the European weeklies disagree with its own ensemble package as they bring a cooler pattern and associated trough back into the Great Lakes and northeast region as we get set to head into the last week of June.  Due to licensing issues we can’t show the European weeklies here, but they deliver quite the trough and cooler than normal air mass around, or just after, the 23rd.

Additionally, the PSD agrees and delivers a cool pattern around June 20th.

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So, while we’re likely to see the hottest weather of the season so far towards Day 10, confidence of this hot weather sticking and holding is very low.  Timing will have to be resolved as it always does in long range weather.  Overall, what’s more likely to happen is that this will be a transient hot pattern and we flip the script to one that’s cooler than average as we go into the last week of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/battle-developing-mid-late-june/

May 31

Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!

A beautiful weekend is underway.  Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days.  Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.

This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue.  Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!

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Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.

Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.

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Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.  Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential.  Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.

Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.

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The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend.  The European forecast model doesn’t agree.

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Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-weather-chit-chat/