Category: European Model

Wet Pattern Looks To Continue Into Mid Month…

I was out and about earlier today and taking note that local lawns are much greener than they typically have been over the past few years by early September.  We can thank recent rains and warmth, but it’s been a wet year, overall, to date.  Think back to all of the winter snows and then add the copious spring and summer rains.  The end result so far?  2014 is running close to 2″ above normal precipitation at IND.

Overnight rains went close to forecast.  We picked up 1″ on the dot in the city, including northern ‘burbs.  (IndyWx.com HQ in southern Boone County also picked up 1″).  Heavier rains and localized flash flooding took place down state.

A look at today’s rainfall:

conus_precip-composite_hi_res

Moving forward, the pattern over the upcoming (2) weeks appears wetter than normal.

In the shorter term, the GFS and Canadian paint a wet picture out by Days 7-10 (BTW- the European agrees).

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cmc_total_precip_ma_41

Modeling suggests 2-3″ type rainfall is possible over the upcoming 7-10 day period.  A transient pattern can be thanked for the overall wet forecast.

The CFSv2 also suggests precipitation runs 150%-200% of normal levels through mid September.

cfs_tprecip_anom_noram_2014090212_61

As harvest begins across some Hoosier farm lands, note the increased wetness in the pattern through the upcoming 14 days, or so.

The region will remain in an active pattern through the next couple weeks, at least, as we lie in the battle ground between a stubborn southeastern ridge and an increasingly active early fall northern stream.  A wetter than normal mid west will ensue…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-pattern-looks-to-continue-into-mid-month/

Cooler To Open September?

As we move through the next week, we continue to think we’ll cool things off as we wrap up August. We’re not talking about any sort of major unseasonably cool…

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Tuesday Afternoon Video Update; Closer Look At Friday.

This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week.  Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday's forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/

Mid And Late Week Questions…

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Tue.

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Sun.

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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.  Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling.  A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results.  The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area.  The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week).  Finally, the GFS is in between the two.  We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days.  Stay tuned.

Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50-1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  0.00″
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.

Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mid-and-late-week-questions/

Sunday Morning: A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

Severe clear can be used to sum up the start to our Sunday. High pressure is in control and will result in a sun-filled day with temperatures trying their best…

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