Category: European Model

Mar 03

Cold Pattern Continues…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

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5/ 32

17/ 36

20/ 39

24/ 52

29/ 39

20/ 38

29/ 53

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Forecast Updated 03.04.14 @ 8:22a

Sunny, But Cold…Another day of bright sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon.  While this is still well below normal and closer to the normal low for this date of 29 degrees, it’ll be a full 14 degrees “milder” than Monday’s high.  You know it’s been a cold winter when you’re saying the freezing mark is milder for a high in March.

Weak Weather Maker…A weak clipper system will move towards the region Wednesday evening into Thursday.  While this will be an accumulating snow producer for areas to our west, current thinking still moves this moisture towards our region, but with a dry air mass in place we think precipitation starts to fall apart as it moves in.  All of that said, light snow and scattered snow showers will fall for parts of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday.  We still think most don’t deal with much, if any, accumulation, but a light coating is possible in spots.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Eyeing Another Wintry Weekend…Modeling is still far from in agreement on the evolution of things on the weekend, but the general idea is one that brings a cold front through here Friday night into early Saturday morning with a wave of low pressure moving northeast out of the middle Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio Valley Saturday.  With fresh cold air oozing south, combined with the associated track of the low, this is a potentially wintry set up for the region and we’re officially calling for a wintry mixture of light snow and/ or sleet across central Indiana Saturday.  The key word is light, but it could still be enough to create a few slick spots across the region.

Briefly Milder; Tracking The Next Significant Storm…The GFS and Canadian forecast models keep our region dry during the early to middle part of next week as a surface low tracks out of the Gulf and well south and east of our region.  On the other hand, the European forecast model winds a storm up much farther north and west and presents a heavy rain and possible thunderstorm threat here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  We still have time to watch this and think the European may be a little too aggressive at present, but stay tuned.

What we are confident on is a briefly milder push of air early next week that could send temperatures well into the 50s.  Don’t get used to it, however, as yet another polar plunge arrives by the mid week stretch.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-record-cold-start-possible/

Feb 28

More On This Weekend’s Winter Storm…

As we’ve been discussing, a significant winter storm is developing this weekend.  The set up is one that will feature an arctic cold front sinking south and stalling out across southern and central Indiana Saturday night.  Low pressure will then organize over the Ark-la-tex region and head northeast, tracking into the northern Tennessee Valley Sunday and Sunday night.  The low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coastline Monday evening.  This will be more of a prolonged event when compared to our last two winter storms as waves of moderate to heavy snow move into central Indiana beginning late Saturday night.

This is an ominous set up for more heavy snow across central Indiana- one that’s notorious for heavy snow events across central Indiana.  We hoisted our initial snowfall forecast Thursday morning and placed central Indiana under the threat for 6-8″.  As of this morning, we’re remaining firm on that idea.  It should be noted that the GFS remains very bullish on heavier totals (and consistent, as well), but it should also be pointed out it’s somewhat of an outlier as of this morning as the GEM and ECMWF are more suppressed with lighter totals.  All of that said, we lean more towards the GFS solution versus the more suppressed Canadian and, to some extent, European forecast model.  Should the other model data begin to trend towards the snowfall idea per the GFS then the initial 6-8″ forecast will have to be adjusted upward.  The storm is just now coming onshore and will be sampled better with model runs later today.

Any way you slice it, a significant and disruptive winter storm is brewing this weekend and could make an absolute mess of your Sunday and Monday.  A shot of bitterly cold air will flow in behind our departing storm early next week.

Our current accumulation idea and storm track can be found below:  We’ll have another update here late tonight and you can keep up-to-date with all of our thoughts on the go on Twitter (@indywx).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-this-weekends-winter-storm/

Feb 16

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon.  Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″.  Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night.  After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.

** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon.  Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**

  • Indianapolis northern ‘burbs, including Zionsville: 2-4″ snow and sleet with less than 0.10 of freezing rain.
  • Indianapolis proper: 2″ snow and sleet with around 0.10 of freezing rain
  • Indianapolis southern ‘burbs, including Greenwood: 1″ snow and sleet with up to 0.25 freezing rain.

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2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week.  Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones.  When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday.  Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.

3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend.  In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm.  We’ll continue to monitor closely…

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4.)  Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March).  Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-thoughts/

Feb 10

Watching The Pattern Turn Active Yet Again…

After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend.  Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period.  Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.

Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday.  Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely.  We feel the GFS may be in error mode here.  While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.

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Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday.  All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently.  The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday.  The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.

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You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one.  Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th.  We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/

Feb 02

More Thoughts On Our Next Winter Storm…

As we continue to draw ever closer to our next significant winter storm, we wanted to provide some of our latest thoughts.  This isn’t a post that will hash out snowfall accumulation ideas or precipitation types, but instead will provide details on our expected track and potential liquid equivalent precipitation amounts.  With so much hype and hoopla around this storm for the past couple weeks, lets just sit back and look at the “bigger” picture, as opposed to trying to sort out details that, quite frankly, are still too early to lay out with any certainty as I write this late Friday night

Here’s our (IndyWx.com) expected track of the low Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.  We used a blend of the GFS, European, and Canadian operational model data, as well as the GFS and European ensemble data sets.  We think surface low pressure tracks out of northeastern Mississippi (Tuesday evening) through north-central Kentucky (Wednesday morning), and into Pennsylvania (Wednesday night) before a secondary low forms off the northeast coastline.

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This is an ideal track for a winter storm across central Indiana, but specifics such as strength and depth of the cold air, potential southern convection, and forward motion of the storm will have to be sorted out over the next day, or so.  Early indications are that while this storm will take a “good” track for winter weather lovers here across central Indiana, the speed in which the system will be moving may reduce snow and ice accumulations from what they otherwise could be.  That said…early raw numbers suggest .50″ to .80″ amounts (liquid equivalent) could fall in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame which is significant.  Case in point, a standard 10:1 ratio that would suggest 5 to 8 inches of snow- assuming the form of precipitation fell as snow through the entire duration.  Again, that is far from a certainty at this point.

Ignoring items such as model snowfall forecasts and precipitation types, just looking at the expected track would suggest central Indiana is very much in the game for a potentially significant and disruptive winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday.  We’ll have to fine tune precise amounts and precipitation types in the next day or two.  Additionally, much colder air (below zero once again at night) may blow into the state behind this storm for mid and late week before we gear up for yet another winter weather maker heading into next weekend.  We still have a long way to go in this pattern…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-our-next-winter-storm/