Category Archives: European Model

Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!

A beautiful weekend is underway.  Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days.  Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.

This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue.  Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!

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Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.

Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.

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Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.  Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential.  Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.

Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.

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The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend.  The European forecast model doesn’t agree.

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Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Taste Of True Spring Coming, But Another Shot Of Winter On Deck…

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

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36/ 58

44/ 70

49/ 63

43/ 70

56/ 68

39/ 56

28/ 40

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Light

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Light

Moderate

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Custom IndyWx.com Forecast Updated 04.09.14 @ 8:31a

Sunshine Returns; Warming Up. . .Instability-driven thundershowers developed Tuesday afternoon across central Indiana and even produced small hail in a few locations, especially east of the city.  Thankfully though the sunshine we experienced Tuesday evening is a sign of things to come for the mid week stretch.  We forecast a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky both today and Thursday, along with moderating temperatures.

A strong southwest breeze will help usher in potentially the first 70 degree day of the year Thursday.  We also note winds may gust upwards of 30 MPH (especially in the open country) Thursday afternoon.

Late Week Front. . .A cold front will move through the region during the day Friday.  Latest model data suggests a little more moisture will be available than we thought earlier this week and as a result we’ll hit the shower and potential thundershower chance a little harder Friday.  Anywhere from 0.25-0.50 of rain will be possible with this system as it moves through the area.

Watching The Weekend. . .While Friday’s front will only make it so far south, we’re still thinking Saturday will be rain-free for the majority of central Indiana.  We’ll note the threat of a shower down state and keep a close eye on things, but for now we’ll keep Saturday’s forecast dry and warm.  Get out there and enjoy a beautiful day!

Our next storm system will take aim on the region Sunday.  As such, clouds will increase and shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise as we go through the day.  We do note a rather large range in model forecast temperatures Sunday between the middle 70s per the European data to the lower 60s per the GFS.  For now, we’ll split the difference and forecast upper 60s Sunday with increasing rain chances as we progress through the day.  Stay tuned.

Brief, But Potent Blast Of Winter Chill. . .Another significant rain maker will blow through the region Sunday night into Monday.  At this early stage in the game, there’s a rather high probability of moderate to heavy rainfall (greater than 1″), but the bigger story will likely be the blast of winter-like chill that will invade next Monday night into Tuesday.  In fact, there may be just enough moisture lingering to result in some light snow or flurries Tuesday as the cold air pours in.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

The region has been under the influence of a cold eastern trough month to date with a brief relaxation taking place presently. The frigid March start and anomalously cold east…

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No Comments Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Sunday Afternoon Update: Awesome Stretch Of Weather Before Dramatic Changes.

Good Sunday afternoon!  We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday.  That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday.  Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, snow, Spring Tease, Winter Storm