Category: European Model

Jan 13

Cold, Snowy Pattern Reloading…

I sure hope you’ve taken time to get out and enjoy a couple of days of milder air (temperatures have run 10-12 degrees above seasonal levels the past couple days) and even some sunshine.  Given what I see coming down the road, the trend that looks to take a colder turn this week may really go into the tank week two.

Here’s an overview of the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble data out at Days 8 through 10 (January 21st-23rd).  Both of these, more trusted, mid to long range computer models suggest a cold pattern locks itself into the East once again, and spells for colder than average temperatures and potentially a snowier than normal regime.

test8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’ll now dive a little deeper into the forecast model vault, courtesy of the unbelievable Weatherbell Analytics model suite (can’t brag on that company enough).  We’re looking at the Northern Hemisphere Upper Air Pattern, courtesy of the European ensemble control run from this afternoon.

Note the mid week trough set to deliver a return of arctic air into the region.  That’s reinforced with a late week trough and renewed arctic air.  Both cold air masses will be capable of producing light accumulating snow across the area.

Per yesterday’s post, as we get into the early to middle portion of next week, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream phasing, which would lead to a significant winter storm across some parts of the eastern half of the country (far too early for specifics or details).

We then note the Polar Vortex recharges itself and threatens to turn the last week to 10 days of January very cold.  How cold is yet to be determined, but I think it’s a safe bet sub-zero temperatures aren’t finished with our area just yet.

Intrusions of very cold arctic air will “pinwheel” around the Polar Vortex and likely lead to a bitterly cold end of January and open to February…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-snowy-pattern-reloading/

Jan 12

Series Of Cold “Jabs” This Week

A look at the latest European forecast model shows the way we think things play out this week nicely. I hope you’ve enjoyed the relatively milder pattern for a few…

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Jan 09

Bet On The Colder Look…

Sometimes in life there are things much more important than the weather and so has been the case the past few days. Moving forward, posts will be a bit erratic,…

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Jan 02

Rare And Potentially Crippling Winter Storm Brewing…

Fresh on the heels of a significant winter storm that impacted central Indiana Wednesday night-Thursday, we’re eyeing our next winter storm and, quite frankly, it could be a memorable one.

We continue to keep a close eye on the pending winter storm Sunday and remain impressed with what we see.  A severe winter storm is brewing and may require blizzard watches and warnings before all is said and done as a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, and severe blowing and drifting promises to make travel difficult, if not impossible, for some areas Sunday.

Setting the stage:

A powerful arctic boundary will drift south towards Indiana Saturday night and Sunday morning.  As this takes place, low pressure will track off the lee of the Rockies and move east, northeast.  Model data continues to suggest this area of low pressure taps into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and really begins to deepen (strengthen) as it tracks into the central/ eastern Ohio Valley Sunday.  To the northwest of the low’s track, a deep blanket of fresh snow will fall.  As the winter storm departs, the coldest air since 1994 will pour into the region on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures will reach record territory, and downright dangerous levels, by Monday and Tuesday.

Last night we mentioned a couple of things going “for” and “against” a major winter storm here in central Indiana.  While there’s no doubt going to be a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow with this storm, this “cut off zone” is most likely well north and west of central Indiana.  Additionally, the impressive thermal gradient between the brutal arctic air mass to the north and the warmer air (relatively speaking) to the south and east will only add fuel to a deepening storm moving northeast into the Ohio Valley.  Finally, with arctic air pouring into the region, the “fluff effect” will be in full-go mode, meaning the northwest flank of the heavy precipitation is likely to have snow ratios of 15:1 as compared to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.  This will be very important to watch as the system develops and will most likely be the spot (far too early to pinpoint at this juncture) where snowfall amounts in excess of one foot will fall.

All of our medium range model data is in agreement on central Indiana receiving quite the blow from Old Man Winter Sunday.  Here’s a look at the latest GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models, valid Sunday afternoon:

GFS1EC1CMC1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, there’s excellent agreement and this leads to a rather high confidence idea on a high-impact and rather rare severe winter storm set to impact Indiana.  Can we tell you with certainty exactly where the 12″+ band of snow will lie across the state?  Not at this time.  That said, we suggest preparing now for a rare and potentially crippling winter storm Sunday.  The combination of heavy snow, strong winds, historic cold, and severe blowing and drifting will make for an extremely dangerous situation Sunday, continuing into early next week.  Temperatures by Tuesday morning will approach 20 degrees below zero, with wind chill values plummeting to 40-50 degrees below zero Monday into Tuesday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rare-and-potentially-crippling-winter-storm-brewing/

Dec 18

A Lot Of Weather To Talk About…

Mother Nature seems determined to put us weather forecasters to hard work as we get set to head into the Christmas season and welcome in 2014.  We’re tracking a major flood situation that will unfold across central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, followed by a reload of the cold and potentially a storm with a more wintry component as we get closer to the New Year.

First things first and that’s the significant flood threat in the short-term period.  Without trying to go into scare tactic mode, current model data would result in a downright dangerous flooding event for many low lying and flood prone areas this weekend.  Rainfall numbers are extremely impressive with this event and with a deep tropical connection, widespread 3-4″ totals are certainly likely, including some localized higher amounts.  Note the latest European chart, courtesy of the model suite off Weatherbell Analytics.  Needless to say, the Gulf of Mexico is officially “open for business” and will help contribute to excessive rainfall totals and, as stated above, potentially a dangerous flooding event this weekend across central Indiana.

ecmwf_uvz850_noram_16

Latest numbers averaged off a variety of computer models would place just under 4″ of rainfall down by noon Sunday, most of which falls between Friday and Sunday morning.  We note (2) waves of enhanced rainfall intensity set to impact the region.  As of now we’re targeting Saturday afternoon and again late Saturday night/ Sunday morning for extremely heavy rain, shown below.

ecmwf_slp_precip_mc_14ecmwf_slp_precip_mc_17

We still have time to watch the data and monitor the track of the storm.  It’s possible the “heaviest of the heavy” axis of rain shifts somewhat in the days ahead,  but it’s also important to note that even a light to moderate rain event combined with a frozen ground and a solid snow pack still in place will lead to flooding problems here across central Indiana.  The question of whether or not we’ll deal with flooding here this weekend shouldn’t be asked, but instead the question that remains is just how severe will the flooding be?  Stay tuned and if you live or work in a flood prone area, we would recommend preparing now for flooding.

Now, as we look ahead and focus on the Christmas to New Years period our thoughts will shift from a flood threat in the near term to one that’s more wintry.  We’ll turn dramatically colder Sunday afternoon behind the big rain storm and that will set the stage for a colder-than-average run up to Christmas. In fact, latest raw numbers off some forecast model guidance has some frigid readings ahead next week (upper single digits not ruled out for lows).

The upcoming 10 days off the European forecast model charts show an interesting scenario with the coming thaw, but the key word is brief.  Note days 6-10 are back into a colder-than-normal regime.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_conus_1

Additionally, we think we’ll have to deal with another storm prior to the New Year period and with the colder air back in place, there’s the threat we could have to contend with a wintry side to the next storm.  The details with storm number two will have to wait until we finish dealing with the first storm and associated serious flood threat it’s presenting.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-lot-of-weather-to-talk-about/