Category: European Model

Mar 07

Now We’re Talking…

Screen Shot 2015-03-07 at 10.30.32 AMSpring Fever Anyone?!  A weak weather system is racing through the region this morning.  Clouds and gusty southwest winds are accompanying this, but the air mass is too dry to sustain any sort of precipitation (with the exception of a snow flurry across northern portions of the state).  Sunshine should increase as we progress from morning into the afternoon hours.  Although we’ll remain colder than average this weekend, highs in the lower 40s will feel downright balmy when compared to the bitterly cold times we’ve gone through over the past several weeks.

Early next week will feature a wet weather maker move northeast out of the Deep South, but this should remain east of our region.  We note the European model tries to deliver some light rain Tuesday, but for now we’ll keep our forecast rain-free and dry.

A real surge of “spring fever” will push in here by the middle of the week with highs in the middle 50s Wednesday and upper 50s Thursday (some areas will touch 60 Thursday).  White Leg Warnings will have to be issued, no doubt ;-).

Unfortunately, weather conditions will take a dramatic turn downhill late week into the weekend as a big storm system lifts north out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Colder and raw times are ahead, including a gusty wind-driven rain.  Moderate to heavy rainfall totals appear to be a good bet from 6-7 days out.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Jan 29

Weekend Snow Storm Brewing?

Forecast models for the most part have been much more aligned with this upcoming event, with the exception of a couple runs on Wednesday. Overnight and this morning modeling is…

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Jan 27

Keeping An Eye On The Weekend…

Forecast models have been printing out wintry solutions for the upcoming weekend- particularly Saturday night through Super Bowl Sunday.

The GFS 500mb charts between 12z Monday and this morning show the key with this potential storm.  Note the difference between yesterday (top) and today (bottom).  The GFS model brings more energy out and the result is a stronger storm system.

SunGFS5001

 

GFSSun5002Timing between cold and moisture associated with storm systems has been the important missing link this winter with bigger storms.  Does that trend continue this weekend?  Snow lovers hope not…

A key ingredient that has been missing in the past is a big area of high pressure north of the region supplying cold air as surface low pressure tracks in a favorable position for wintry precipitation.  Models do suggest not only renewed arctic high pressure building down the Plains region Sunday into Monday, but also a 1040mb high over the northern Lakes region.  This would help go a long way in keeping cold air flowing into the region.

What about the sensible weather here?!  Keeping in mind that this is still an event 5 days out…..  The GFS model suggests mostly a snow event north-central, but also brings in a wintry mix of icy precipitation and rain across the southern half of the state.  The Canadian forecast model (not shown here) is more suppressed and leads to an accumulating weekend snow event across the region and targets southern portions of the state for heaviest snowfall.  The European model is the most “ideal” scenario for central Indiana snow lovers and leads to a significant snow event across the heart of the state.

Note the European forecast model track a wave of low pressure in an ideal location for heavy snow across central Indiana before intensifying and hammering the Northeast region.

ecm_mslp_east_7

 

ecm_mslp_east_8

We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this developing situation. Stay tuned….

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/keeping-an-eye-on-the-weekend/

Jan 14

Relatively Quiet Now, But It Won’t Last Long…

Enjoy our relatively quiet and briefly milder weather pattern as mid and long range guidance suggests we reload the cold with authority and associated wintry precipitation threats…

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Jan 12

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

nws_precip_indy_7

A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

hires_ref_indy_52

The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

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