Category: European Model

Light Snow Develops Today; Tracking Stronger Midweek Storm…

Updated 01.08.23 @ 9:55a

While the day has started off on a quiet note, light snow will overspread portions of central Indiana, including Indianapolis this afternoon. This won’t be a big deal by any stretch of the imagination but a light coating is possible along the I-70 corridor by evening as the light snow becomes more persistent. This is all part of the same weak, pesky system we’ve been tracking since about this time last week (yes, the same one that at times was modeled to be a much bigger deal). In any event, please keep us posted on what you’re seeing this afternoon into the evening hours.

The steadier light snow should end from west to east between 5p and 8p and give way to a quiet start to the work week. By this time, all eyes will be on a much stronger, more organized system that will move into the Ohio Valley. This should be a mostly liquid event, but we do note both the GFS and European models working enough cold air into the system to all the rain to begin mixing with and changing to wet snow Thursday PM.

European forecast model shows rain beginning to mix with and change to snow Thursday PM.
GFS model is also on board for the potential of rain changing to snow Thursday afternoon.

Of course timing is always an important part of changeover scenarios, especially on the tail end of the precipitation shield. However, given the 500mb pattern in eastern Canada, we should watch for the possibility of the overall solution trending colder with time over the next couple of days.

As additional upper level energy dives in behind the primary low, wind-whipped snow showers and squalls with additional light accumulation potential will be present to close the work week.

Side note, I’ve been without a Fiber connection since last Thursday (thanks to a main line cut). Trying to make do the best way possible, but hence a reason for the lack of videos the past couple of days. Hopeful things will get back to BAU tomorrow, but know your patience is appreciated greatly right now. Regardless, we’ll be back with another update this evening reviewing trends for mid-late week off the 12z suite.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/08/light-snow-develops-today-tracking-stronger-midweek-storm/

Reasons Why Another Significant Pattern Change Likely Looms In January…

Updated 12.30.22 @ 7:50a

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Potential Pre-Christmas Winter Storm; MJO Impacts On The January Pattern…

Updated 12.13.22 @ 9:48p

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Updated Data In On Our Thanksgiving Storm System…

Updated 11.16.22 @ 11:49p

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Saturday Morning Rambles: Wind The Big Story Today; Warmth On Borrowed Time…

Updated 11.05.22 @ 9:22a

I. Showers will scoot east of the region by late morning but we’re not done with the rain just yet. A skinny line of storms will likely blow across the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.

3p forecast radar

The other big story today will, of course, be the wind, including wind gusts around of 50-60 MPH. Strongest winds will come between 12p and 5p before diminishing this evening. Needless to say, batten down the hatches!

II. High pressure will supply an extended period of quiet weather through the bulk of the week ahead but there are changes on the horizon.

Our next cold front will blow into town Thursday night or Friday morning. As of now, it looks like it’ll be moisture starved but unlike this current system, the air behind the frontal passage will be drastically colder. How do highs in the lower 40s and lows in the lower 20s sound next weekend?

III. Next week’s front will be a “game changer” in that it will likely be the first attempt at bringing a more sustained colder pattern east. Note the latest European ensemble guidance below for the 10-15 day period. Needless to say, warmth is, indeed, on borrowed time…


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/05/saturday-morning-rambles-wind-the-big-story-today-warmth-on-borrowed-time/

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Tracking A Cold Front In The New Week Ahead…

Updated 10.20.22 @ 7:38a

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VIDEO: Additional Winter Thoughts On This Gorgeous October Evening…

Updated 10.05.22 @ 6:19p

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Something’s Got To Give…

Updated 10.03.22 @ 5:32p

The NEW European Weeklies are in and continue to paint an intriguing picture as we look ahead to November. Remember, we’re of the belief that the pattern may, indeed, get off to a fast start to the winter season (for a change) this year.

At any rate, note the evolution at 500mb continues to up the ante that this idea may be right as we rumble into mid-November.

However, at the surface, the European doesn’t display the type of cooling one would imagine given the upper air pattern look.

My hunch is that we’ll see the trough “tuck in” further west to include a good portion of the central and east as we move forward and zone in on that mid-November time frame. That will likely force the surface temperature anomalies above to cool (significantly so if this idea is correct) for that time period.

It’ll be interesting to see what the update European seasonal product says in a couple of days. We’ll include that in Thursday’s long range update.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/03/somethings-got-to-give/

VIDEO: Few Weekend Showers; Extended Dry, Cool Stretch In The Week Ahead…

Updated 09.23.22 @ 7:29a

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VIDEO: Coolest Since Last Spring Friday Morning; All Eyes On The Gulf Next Week As A Potential Significant Hurricane Threat Looms…

Updated 09.22.22 @ 7:38a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/22/video-coolest-since-last-spring-friday-morning-all-eyes-on-the-gulf-next-week-as-a-potential-significant-hurricane-threat-looms/

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