Simply put, for this time of year, the upcoming 5-7 days is as quiet as it can be around these parts. Look for much more sunshine than we typically see this time of year along with moderating temperatures after a seasonably chilly weekend. Highs will return into the lower 60s for a good chunk of the work week ahead. All in all it’ll be a perfect week to get a jump on that exterior Christmas decorating or any end of year yard work. Enjoy!
An area of high pressure will keep our region quiet in the week ahead while the “action” shifts to the south and east.
As we look ahead to Thanksgiving week, there are growing indications of a much more active pattern that will emerge. While still too early for specifics, there are likely to be some weather-related impacts to holiday travel (both going and coming home) from a couple of stronger storm systems.
One more quick note before closing, the NEW European Weeklies are in and present an “intriguing” signal as we get closer to Christmas. Note the model see the early December ridge get washed away and a trough beginning to emerge south-central. I’d watch for the model to grow stronger and more expansive (colder impacts) in time. . .
With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.
Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.
Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.
Make it a great Thursday!
Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.
As we type this, we’re in the midst of the season’s 1st big blast of chilly air. These shots will become progressively cooler (colder) in the coming weeks and months. Speaking of that, we’re also working on a post that we’ll unveil over the weekend looking specifically at the upcoming holiday season and what our analog package/ respective SST configuration says we may have in store this season.
For the purpose of this post, we’ll focus squarely on the pattern through the remainder of October.
As we typically do, the pattern drivers (+ PNA and – EPO) both suggest a ‘mean’ trough should take up shop across the eastern 1/3 of the country over the next couple weeks. What’s interesting is that the updated European Weeklies also suggest this general theme should continue into at least mid-November. Despite a favorable setup with respect to the PNA/ EPO, the model tries to wash out the chill and hints at a ridge down the road. In my humble opinion, this is the model feeding back on itself and once again showcasing an inability to see below normal temperatures in the longer range. We’ve shown time and time again over the summer and even into the early fall where the model is “forced” to cool the closer we get to a given period and believe that will, once again, be the case this go around, especially with the anticipated positive PNA and negative EPO.
The Pacific North American pattern (PNA) is expected to remain in a positive state through the majority of the upcoming 5-6 weeks.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is anticipated to remain largely in a negative state through the upcoming 5-6 weeks.
The upper pattern, illustrated with last night’s European Weeklies, is one that breaks the trough down towards Halloween. While there is a possibility of some brief warming around this timeframe, I suspect we’ll once again look back at the model having to correct colder over the east as we rumble into November. More on that in a moment.
Week 1: 10/5 through 10/11
Week 2: 10/11 through 10/18
Week 3: 10/18 through 10/25
Week 4: 10/25 through 11/1
The period ends with a warmer look around Halloween and while this is on the table, it’s also a look that should promote building heights over AK and western Canada and another period of blocking with a subsequent cold trough developing over our neck of the woods and the central/ east as we rumble through into November. The model is seeing the building heights, but not picking up on the magnitude of a downstream trough and associated colder pattern, IMO. Frankly, this 500mb look is capable of producing very cold weather sometime during mid-November and I suspect the model will have to start playing catch up as we move forward.
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