Category: European Model

Apr 14

Weekend Questions…

Screen Shot 2015-04-14 at 9.38.13 PMNot As Bad As It May Look…Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.  Moisture will stream in from the south Wednesday evening and nighttime showers will develop across central Indiana, continuing into Thursday (though we can also expect several dry hours).

Friday will also feature mostly dry conditions, but we’ll maintain a mention of a widely scattered shower.  Overall, increasing sunshine and a southerly air flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s Friday.

The weekend features lots of questions as two of our more trusted computer models are in totally different camps as of this evening.  The European suggests dry and warm conditions (a great weekend, weather-wise) will rule; however, the GFS model is more unsettled and cooler.  For now we’ll take a blend of the two, leaning more towards the GFS due to better run-to-run consistency.  Stay tuned as updates will be required.

Cooler air will become the story as we open next week and jackets may be needed Tuesday with a gusty northwest breeze.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-questions/

Apr 09

Cooler Pattern Developing Week 2…

After a warm open to April, we note the MJO is heading into Phase 2 in the medium range.  Phase 2 this time of year would imply for a cooler than normal pattern.

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combined_imageSure enough we see the modeling going towards the cooler look for Week 2 (around 4/17…give or take a day, or two).

Note the GFS ensembles reverse course towards a cooler regime after the warm period currently.

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The European ensembles (left) show a tendency for eastern troughiness, as well.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_216This isn’t saying some sort of record-smashing cold pattern is coming or anything of that sort, but it is to say that after a warm open to April, we’ll reverse things for a few days, at least, during the medium range period.  This could include a push of frost and freeze conditions, as well.

In the shorter-term, please remain weather aware tonight and keep close tabs on watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  Thunderstorms should push into central Indiana around midnight and will be capable of severe levels, including damaging hail, destructive straight line winds, and quick spin-up tornadoes.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cooler-pattern-developing-week-2/

Mar 07

Now We’re Talking…

Screen Shot 2015-03-07 at 10.30.32 AMSpring Fever Anyone?!  A weak weather system is racing through the region this morning.  Clouds and gusty southwest winds are accompanying this, but the air mass is too dry to sustain any sort of precipitation (with the exception of a snow flurry across northern portions of the state).  Sunshine should increase as we progress from morning into the afternoon hours.  Although we’ll remain colder than average this weekend, highs in the lower 40s will feel downright balmy when compared to the bitterly cold times we’ve gone through over the past several weeks.

Early next week will feature a wet weather maker move northeast out of the Deep South, but this should remain east of our region.  We note the European model tries to deliver some light rain Tuesday, but for now we’ll keep our forecast rain-free and dry.

A real surge of “spring fever” will push in here by the middle of the week with highs in the middle 50s Wednesday and upper 50s Thursday (some areas will touch 60 Thursday).  White Leg Warnings will have to be issued, no doubt ;-).

Unfortunately, weather conditions will take a dramatic turn downhill late week into the weekend as a big storm system lifts north out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Colder and raw times are ahead, including a gusty wind-driven rain.  Moderate to heavy rainfall totals appear to be a good bet from 6-7 days out.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/now-were-talking/

Jan 29

Weekend Snow Storm Brewing?

Forecast models for the most part have been much more aligned with this upcoming event, with the exception of a couple runs on Wednesday. Overnight and this morning modeling is…

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Jan 27

Keeping An Eye On The Weekend…

Forecast models have been printing out wintry solutions for the upcoming weekend- particularly Saturday night through Super Bowl Sunday.

The GFS 500mb charts between 12z Monday and this morning show the key with this potential storm.  Note the difference between yesterday (top) and today (bottom).  The GFS model brings more energy out and the result is a stronger storm system.

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GFSSun5002Timing between cold and moisture associated with storm systems has been the important missing link this winter with bigger storms.  Does that trend continue this weekend?  Snow lovers hope not…

A key ingredient that has been missing in the past is a big area of high pressure north of the region supplying cold air as surface low pressure tracks in a favorable position for wintry precipitation.  Models do suggest not only renewed arctic high pressure building down the Plains region Sunday into Monday, but also a 1040mb high over the northern Lakes region.  This would help go a long way in keeping cold air flowing into the region.

What about the sensible weather here?!  Keeping in mind that this is still an event 5 days out…..  The GFS model suggests mostly a snow event north-central, but also brings in a wintry mix of icy precipitation and rain across the southern half of the state.  The Canadian forecast model (not shown here) is more suppressed and leads to an accumulating weekend snow event across the region and targets southern portions of the state for heaviest snowfall.  The European model is the most “ideal” scenario for central Indiana snow lovers and leads to a significant snow event across the heart of the state.

Note the European forecast model track a wave of low pressure in an ideal location for heavy snow across central Indiana before intensifying and hammering the Northeast region.

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We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this developing situation. Stay tuned….

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/keeping-an-eye-on-the-weekend/