Category Archives: European Model

Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…

A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.

A couple of storms may fire up ahead of the frontal boundary Friday afternoon, but widespread rain isn’t expected.
We’ll notice a wind shift from the southwest to west behind the frontal boundary Friday evening.

While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.

As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.

Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…

That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.

As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.

No Comments 10-day, Autumn, Client, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Getting To Be That Time Of Year: Major Model Differences Around Tropical Mischief…

A trough of low pressure will continue moving south through the Southeast region (now) and into the northern Gulf (by the early to middle portion of the work week).

With warmer than average sea surface temperatures across the north-central and northeastern Gulf, along with a favorable upper level wind environment, the potential is present for this disturbed area of weather to strengthen into a tropical depression over the next few days before meandering just off the coastline.


While Gulf Coast beach-goers will need to remain on guard for the threat of more organized unsettled weather during the upcoming period centered on early to mid week, the potential inland impacts are much less certain at this point.

Reviewing the latest midday model guidance shows two different camps:

I. The GFS likes the idea of a heavy inland rain threat impacting the Carolinas (primarily east of the Appalachians) late week and into the weekend.

II. The European forecast model “curls” the area of disturbed weather west. A polar opposite of the GFS solution, the European strengthens the system across the north-central Gulf before bringing potential Barry into LA over the weekend. Thereafter, if this solution proves correct, portions of the OHV (including central Indiana) would deal with rain early next week.

We, obviously, have a long way to go with this set-up, but given the overall upper air pattern we tend to favor more of a GFS solution at this point in time. Needless to say, we’ll keep a very close eye on things over the upcoming few days…

No Comments Client, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Tropics