Dec 14
Updated 12.14.23 @ 5:40p After an unseasonably pleasant close to the week, changeable conditions take hold this weekend into early next week.
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Dec 08
Updated 12.08.23 @ 7:22a
As we hone in on the late December and early January pattern, there remains little if any change in the thought here that a more widespread cold pattern will evolve across the eastern 1/3 of the country. We note the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still showing that it wants to progress out of the traditionally warm December phases we’re in now into the colder phases post 12/20.
While we fully anticipate a more sustained colder than normal pattern to evolve in the 12/20 to 1/10 timeframe, I think this should be more of a situation that’s slightly colder than normal versus some sort of major arctic blast. All the same, as we get into the time of year when averages are close to their lowest, that will speak volumes given where we’ve been up to that point through the majority of December.
From a precipitation standpoint, these respective phases usually produce below normal precipitation across our neck of the woods, at least until we get into Phase 1 in January (interesting with the expected colder regime in place by that time period, heh?).
When we go look at the latest European ensemble precipitation anomalies over the next couple weeks (ending Dec. 22nd), the dry theme is alive and kicking. Frankly, it a very El Nino-like look (drier here while wetter across the Southeast and eastern seaboard) and shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Also of interest is the way the longer range weekly modeling shows the trough becoming more prevalent and sustained out in that post December 20th timeframe, continuing into early January.
European Weeklies: Winter wx fans also have to like all of the high latitude blocking on this run while the trough expands and sustains itself. Immediate take-away from yesterday’s run? Chilly and stormy close to the year and open to ’24.
JMA Weeklies: In similar fashion to the Euro, the model really expands and deepens the eastern trough Weeks 3-4. Again, it’s a chilly and stormy look.
In closing, we see no reason to deviate from our long standing idea of a pattern shift to chillier than normal around Christmas that should carry us into the first couple weeks of January. By that point, we’ll have to start monitoring other teleconnections (along with the MJO, of course), such as the NAO, to gain more clarity on the regime as we push into the 2nd half of meteorological winter.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-discussion-to-close-the-year-and-head-into-the-1st-half-of-january/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p
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Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a
The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.
First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.
These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.
We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.
It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.
At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/