Category: El Niño

Different Flavors Of El Niños And Impacts On The Winter…

Updated 07.14.23 @ 10:34a

After a rare triple dip La Niña, significant changes have taken place in the equatorial Pacific this past spring and summer. The question isn’t “if” we’re dealing with an El Niño this fall and winter, but rather what type, or “flavor” of Nino we get to enjoy.

(A quick piece of advice for anyone viewing winter outlooks that are being published ridiculously early: be skeptical to any sources “broad-brushing” the outlook by labeling it simply as an “El Nino winter”).

Like we say with every seasonal outlook it seems, each Nina, Nino, or even neutral events have their own characteristics. No single event is identical. While we can gain valuable insights that can help build the foundation of what lies ahead through looking back at the past, undoubtedly, every year will have a few surprises. It’s our job to try and limit those surprises the best we can. 😉

A look at the current sea surface temperature (SST) configuration shows the warmest anomalies tucked in to Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.

Simply put, if this look continues this fall and into the early winter, it’s a warm to very warm signal for winter, locally.

The million dollar question is how the early stages of this Nino evolves in the coming weeks and next few months. There’s reason to believe there’s a chance this transitions into more of a central based, or “Modoki” El Niño event by winter. If that’s the case, we’ll have to up the ante for colder, more wintry conditions.

(You can read more about Modoki El Niño events here).

While still a bit early to put too much stock in any of the seasonal products for winter, it is interesting to see how the latest European seasonal model is trending as we move into the Nov through Jan timeframe below.

Stay tuned. We’ll really begin to firm up preliminary meteorological winter (Dec through Feb) thoughts over the course of the next couple months.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/14/different-flavors-of-el-ninos-and-impacts-on-the-winter/

Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…

Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a

There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.

Okay, back to present.

As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.

July

Temperatures

Precipitation

August

Temperatures

Precipitation

As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…

We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/

VIDEO: Dramatic Change In The Overall Pattern To Wet; Active Holiday Weekend With Multiple Rounds Of Storms…

Updated 06.30.23 @ 7:40a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/30/video-dramatic-change-in-the-overall-pattern-to-wet-active-holiday-weekend-with-multiple-rounds-of-storms/

VIDEO: Evening Storms For Some; Remainder Of Met. Summer Pattern Discussion…

Updated 06.15.23 @ 7:58a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/15/video-evening-storms-for-some-remainder-of-met-summer-pattern-discussion/

Dry Times Likely Become A Bigger Issue Before The Pattern Shifts…

Updated 05.19.23 @ 8:58a

The latest drought monitor (from May 18th) only shows portions of far western Indiana in “abnormally dry,” or D0 intensity.

Rainfall over the past (30) days has been hit and miss- not what one ideally wants to see this time of year as feedback can take hold quickly.

Officially, IND is running 3.4″ below normal in the rainfall department since April 1st.

A cold front will press through central Indiana this evening and offer up a smattering of showers and thunderstorms. While some lucky folks will pick up a half inch, or so, most will likely only accumulate rainfall totals between 0.10″ and 0.30″.

After this, dry times return through the weekend and next week, as a whole. In fact, the pattern long term looks significantly drier than normal through the month of June.

Without question, we’ll see the drought monitor begin to include more of the Ohio Valley in abnormally dry or “droughty” conditions in the coming weeks.

As the Nino matures, the middle and back half of summer should take on an increasingly wet look, but that’s not before 4-6 weeks of the current dry pattern getting even drier…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/19/dry-times-likely-become-a-bigger-issue-before-the-pattern-shifts/

LR Update: Walking Through The Next Few Weeks And An El Nino Update…

Updated 05.11.23 @ 9:45p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/11/lr-update-walking-through-the-next-few-weeks-and-an-el-nino-update/

LR Update: May Pattern Evolution And Early Look At June…

Updated 04.28.23 @ 2:33a

While we remain bullish on a warmer response in the Week 2-3 time period, the longevity of any sort of “warm-up” is the point we’re trying to drive home. The MJO is still forecast to amplify into Phase 6 just past May 10th. As a result, our stubborn call remains on modeling being “forced” to correct warmer during this time.


As it is, we’re in a camp of our own with that call based off Thursday’s long range update. Note both the new European Weeklies and JMA Weeklies show the eastern trough remaining.

At the very least, it’s an interesting test case on our hands that we’ll be able to see play out in real time.

Even if we do see the Week 2-3 warm up, it’s likely to be short-lived as the MJO continues to rumble into cooler phases and the teleconnections (namely the EPO and NAO) tag-team neutral to negative through the bulk of May and into early June.

The end result after any sort of warmer response during the aforementioned time period is likely for at least a slightly cooler pattern to return compared to average. The relatively drier pattern will also trend wetter late May into early June.

At the end of the day, we still see a warmer surge taking hold, locally, between Weeks 2-3. However cooler and wetter conditions likely settle back in as we navigate the back half of May and into early June at least.

Is this a hint of the times as summer matures? Not out of the question this year as we flip the page to Nino conditions…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/28/lr-update-may-pattern-evolution-and-early-look-at-june/

VIDEO: Tracking 2 Storms Next Week; Summer ’23 Pattern Ideas…

Updated 02.10.23 @ 7:55a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/02/10/video-tracking-2-storms-next-week-summer-23-pattern-ideas/

Updated Seasonal Thoughts As We Head Into The 2nd Half Of Winter And Towards Spring…

Updated 01.14.23 @ 6a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/14/updated-seasonal-thoughts-as-we-head-into-the-2nd-half-of-winter-and-towards-spring/

VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/

IndyWx.com