Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
A ‘mean’ eastern ridge (and strong western trough) will dominate the 1st half of March.Well above average temperatures are expected through the 1st half of March.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
MJO forecast through March 13th
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:
El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.
Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.
This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.
Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.
European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through MayJMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May
From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.
European seasonal temperature anomalies March through MayJMA temperature anomalies March through May
IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:
Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.
Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!
Updated 02.05.24 @ 6p Potential is on the increase for a period of notable cold during late-February. We look into this along with the staying power, and early thoughts on…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/long-range-update-pattern-evolution-through-the-remainder-of-winter-open-to-meteorological-spring/
First, if you didn’t have a chance to see our thoughts after the European Weeklies came in, you can check that out here.
After the snow across portions of western and southern Indiana the past couple days (thank you for all of the reports, by the way), the next feature we’re tracking has to do with a clipper system that will dive southeast across the upper Mid West and into the Ohio Valley New Year’s Eve. This will certainly be moisture-starved, but should have just enough to work with to generate snow flurries and scattered snow showers by late Sunday morning, continuing in off an on fashion into the afternoon and evening.
A weak clipper system will offer up a few snow showers New Year’s Eve.
That’s really all there is to track, locally, over the upcoming 7-day period. The predominant storm track will shift off to the south during this time frame as an active, El Niño induced, southern jet takes hold. The one potential feature of interest is out towards the end of next week. We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, it looks like the phasing of energy will take place just a little too far east for anything of “excitement” here.
Temperatures will continue to cool closer to seasonal averages and perhaps a bit below normal over the upcoming 10-14 days. Greatest cool anomalies will be located across the western and southern tier during this timeframe.
Updated with European Weekly thoughts 12/29/23 @ 7:09a
There’s no reason to change any of our thoughts concerning how things play out over the next 24 hours with our upper level low pressure system. That idea from yesterday is available here. In short, it still appears as if parts of west-central Indiana are still greatest at risk of seeing light wet snow accumulation (of course some of our friends in southwest Indiana are already enjoying waking up to snow on the ground this morning).
As we look ahead to the upcoming 3-4 weeks (will add to this post later tonight after having a chance to see the updated Euro Weekly teleconnections), it appears as if we’re heading right towards more of a predominant El Niño regime with an active southern storm track and most persistent cold, relative to average, taking up residence across the southern tier. The updated JMA Weekly model portrays this best over the course of the upcoming 28 days:
Modeling continues to struggle with the MJO evolution over the upcoming 2 week period. While this doesn’t impact the idea of colder times in the short-term period, it does have great implications beyond mid-January. The kind of amplitude shown off the American guidance (image 1 below) would threaten to deliver a much warmer than average period, locally, beyond mid-month. Meanwhile, the European (image 2 below) continues to suggest a collapse into the neutral phase.
The 2 primary other pattern drivers include the PNA and EPO through mid-January. Beyond this point, we’ll start to incorporate the likes of the NAO and AO into our forecast (hence another reason why we’re interested in seeing how the Euro Weeklies show this later today).
Simply based on how the PNA/ EPO combo is forecast, the first week would open with cooler temperatures transitioning into the region and then we would likely see moderation in the week 2 to early week 3 timeframe.
Week 1
Week 2
While we’re certainly transitioning to a cooler and more active pattern over the upcoming couple weeks, compared to where we’ve been to this point in meteorological winter, it’s not yet to a point where anything looks excessively cold or, for that matter, snowy.
That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a couple storms to track that could offer up some meaningful winter weather potential here, but I just don’t see a sustained cold, snowy pattern taking foot through mid-January. Beyond that point, we’ll have to monitor which more extreme solution plays out. Based on everything going on by that point, it’s still likely to be a situation where either more persistent (and significant) cold or warmth develops.
European Weekly update 12/29/23
The new European Weeklies show a warmer option for the 2nd half of January, but contradict their own teleconnections during this time frame. The model goes to a strong negative AO, positive PNA, negative NAO, and a neutral EPO. Of course we’ll have to see what the MJO ultimately ends up doing but that combo strongly argues for the colder option for the 2nd half of January.
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will continue to move east across the state this morning. Morning showers will come to an end from west to east over the next couple of hours. Speaking of rain, most area rain gauges picked up around half an inch of precipitation overnight. (Thank you for all of your reports)!
Meanwhile, our big coastal low will continue to deepen on its’ journey north along the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours. Major impacts from high surf, heavy rain, and strong winds can be expected up and down the East Coast, along with significant airport impacts Monday. – Certainly not the start to the pre-Christmas week of travel many may hope for. As colder air pours in on the backside, a heavy, wind-whipped snow event will unfold from the high ground of those beautiful east TN and western NC mountains, up into the interior portions of the Northeast.
Surface Map Sunday Morning
Back here on the home front, we still anticipate a piece of upper level energy to accompany a brief “jab” of arctic air to open up the last work week before Christmas.
This will help snow showers develop Monday morning with some locally intense snow squalls impacting the region late morning through the afternoon. These squalls will be most widespread north and east of the city, itself, but even into Indianapolis, I’d anticipate a couple heavy bursts of snow and briefly reduced visibilities Monday. While a dusting to perhaps as much as a half inch of snow is all we can expect across immediate central Indiana, areas downwind of Lake Michigan (north-central and northeast Indiana, including portions of east-central Indiana) can expect 1″ to 2″ with locally heavier amounts in spots where more persistent lake bands take hold.
While we’re not envisioning any sort of plowable snows locally, the brief more intense squalls will be capable of producing slick spots at times. Plan to allow extra time to safely reach your destination. Snow removal Clients, salting will be required across central and east-central Indiana Monday.
Snow showers and heavier squalls will increase through the day Monday.
Wind will be the other component Monday, along with falling temperatures. We expect northwest gusts to approach 35 MPH at times. Wind chills will fall into the 10s.
Just as quickly as the snow and wind hits Monday, it’ll leave. High pressure will build in overhead Tuesday allowing sunshine to return in full force. After a cold day, temperatures will begin to moderate through midweek.
An increasingly moist, but milder, southwesterly flow will take hold late week which will lead to increasingly cloudy and gloomy conditions with rain returning. Unfortunately from this distance, it still appears that we’ll remain socked in with clouds and rain at times Christmas along with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. Areas of fog can also be expected at times.
Rain will return Thursday night and remain with us periodically through the Christmas holiday.
Longer term, all systems are “a go” for a more substantial pattern shift towards colder and potentially wintry fun and games as we close out the year and head deeper into January. Model guidance over the weekend has grown more intriguing with not only the idea of a slower MJO rotation through the classic cold phases, and the EPO is also showing more and more signs of going negative.
While still not ready to say we’re primed for any sort of arctic outbreak, the thought here remains that we go slightly colder than normal early January with an active southern stream of the jet. Based off what the EPO and MJO do beyond this point (along with the AO/ NAO combo come mid-month), and the potential of laying a snowpack down will determine how cold we can go beyond mid-Jan.
You don’t need us to tell you that our El Nino is alive and kicking. What’s of interest is the cooler trends that continue in earnest in region 1+2. Should this continue, then the plot will thicken late winter and spring for the possibility of continued colder trends. . .
Updated 12.10.23 @ 8:45a We’re going to be socked in with mostly cloudy and unseasonably chilly temperatures today. A few snow flurries may also accompany the cold. Otherwise, a mostly…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
As we hone in on the late December and early January pattern, there remains little if any change in the thought here that a more widespread cold pattern will evolve across the eastern 1/3 of the country. We note the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is still showing that it wants to progress out of the traditionally warm December phases we’re in now into the colder phases post 12/20.
Temperature Anomalies: MJO Phase 7 December
Temperatures Anomalies: MJO Phase 8 December
Temperatures Anomalies: MJO Phase 1 January
While we fully anticipate a more sustained colder than normal pattern to evolve in the 12/20 to 1/10 timeframe, I think this should be more of a situation that’s slightly colder than normal versus some sort of major arctic blast. All the same, as we get into the time of year when averages are close to their lowest, that will speak volumes given where we’ve been up to that point through the majority of December.
From a precipitation standpoint, these respective phases usually produce below normal precipitation across our neck of the woods, at least until we get into Phase 1 in January (interesting with the expected colder regime in place by that time period, heh?).
When we go look at the latest European ensemble precipitation anomalies over the next couple weeks (ending Dec. 22nd), the dry theme is alive and kicking. Frankly, it a very El Nino-like look (drier here while wetter across the Southeast and eastern seaboard) and shouldn’t come as a surprise.
Also of interest is the way the longer range weekly modeling shows the trough becoming more prevalent and sustained out in that post December 20th timeframe, continuing into early January.
European Weeklies: Winter wx fans also have to like all of the high latitude blocking on this run while the trough expands and sustains itself. Immediate take-away from yesterday’s run? Chilly and stormy close to the year and open to ’24.
JMA Weeklies: In similar fashion to the Euro, the model really expands and deepens the eastern trough Weeks 3-4. Again, it’s a chilly and stormy look.
In closing, we see no reason to deviate from our long standing idea of a pattern shift to chillier than normal around Christmas that should carry us into the first couple weeks of January. By that point, we’ll have to start monitoring other teleconnections (along with the MJO, of course), such as the NAO, to gain more clarity on the regime as we push into the 2nd half of meteorological winter.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
