Very Windy Today; Next Big Storm Next Week…

Highlights:

Very strong winds
Dry times return
Big storm next week

A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours. While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.

Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state. Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday. Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.

Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week. Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms. Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential. More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).

Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter. As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs. (We like to see consistency :-)).

Overall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east. One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season. Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.

After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook. One thing’s for sure, time will tell!

Bill McMillan November 12, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, El Niño, Forecast, JAMSTEC, T-storms, Windy, Winter thoughts...

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Highlights:

Wednesday night storms
Very windy to close the week
Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

We still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall. Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event. Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday. As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time. This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

As mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm. We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms. Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH). Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November. We note the SOI is actually positive right now. This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks. Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

Bill McMillan November 10, 2015 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, El Niño, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, MJO, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

I Like It Euro…

We posted our annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook last Saturday. If you haven’t read it yet, or want some good material to put you to sleep :-), feel free to click here.

Tonight we see the latest seasonal long range European model shifting the Nino to more of a central-based El Nino as we rumble deeper and deeper into winter. This is another indicator that mid and late winter could be cold. In any event, here you go:

Nov, Dec, Jan

Dec, Jan, Feb

Jan, Feb, March

There sure have been a lot of comparisons of this El Nino to that of ’97-’98. That’s fine in talking strength, but the overall SST profile both in the Pacific AND Atlantic is vastly different.

Hmmm…time to go dream about snow storms. – Combine a positive PDO with a central-based El Nino and there could very well be plenty of wintry “fun and games” in the months ahead.

Click here for more from the fantastic European Centre For Medium Range Forecasts site.

Bill McMillan October 19, 2015 No Comments El Niño, European Model, Forecast Discussion, snow, Winter Outlook, Winter thoughts...

Looking Back At Summer And Ahead…

Meteorological fall began September 1st, but astronomical fall begins tomorrow. When we look back at summer, we note that it was a cool, wet summer with bookend dry periods. June…

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Bill McMillan September 22, 2015 No Comments Autumn, El Niño, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter thoughts...

Updated JAMSTEC…

6:51a, 9.16.15 I tried my best to stay up late enough last night to post this update, but decided to finally turn in after nearly two collisions with me falling…