Category: ClientBrief

Mar 05

All-Access Client Brief: Stripe Of Accumulating Snow Streaks Across Central IN…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

What: Accumulating snow

When: Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: E 5-10 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Snow will develop to our northwest tomorrow night into Thursday morning before streaking southeast across central Indiana Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with lighter snow falling Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite what should be moderate intensity at times, the higher March sun angle should help with accumulation on area roadways (still expecting slick and slushy travel at times during periods of heavier intensity) and the idea here is that a general 1″ to 3″ swath of snow falls in a northwest to southeast orientation during the period. Temperatures should remain fairly steady or slowly fall into the upper 20s and winds are expected to be light.

Confidence: Medium-high

Next Update: 7a Wednesday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/05/all-access-client-brief-stripe-of-accumulating-snow-streaks-across-central-in/

Mar 02

All-Access Client Brief: Morning Thoughts After Looking Over The Latest Data For Sunday…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: 6a to 6p Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: North 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal to moderate

Right off the bat, there’s no need to make any changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast. Snow will arrive into south-central Indiana before sunrise Sunday before expanding northeast through the morning hours, including Indianapolis by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Greatest potential of embedded heavier banding continues to look like it’ll lie across south-central parts of the state (thus the continuation of a 3″ to 5″ swath of snow). North winds will turn gusty Sunday evening and a bit of blowing/ drifting is possible on east-west roadways Sunday night as the late season arctic air arrives in earnest.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/02/all-access-client-brief-morning-thoughts-after-looking-over-the-latest-data-for-sunday/

Mar 01

All-Access Client Brief: Latest Thoughts Around This Weekend’s Snow…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: Late Saturday night into Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: North 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Overnight model trends are in overall better agreement, but still present notable differences- not only with the track, but overall strength and forward motion with the system. Saturday will be dry before clouds increase, lower, and thicken Saturday evening with snow overspreading the southern half of the state overnight. Mainly light to occasionally moderate snow (downstate) can be expected into the daytime on Sunday. The overall quick movement of this storm system will ultimately be a limiting factor in accumulation totals. Behind the system, much colder air will pour into the area Sunday night and Monday (single digit low and highs in the upper 10s to lower 20s).

Confidence: Low-medium

Next Update: This evening in video format

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/01/all-access-client-brief-latest-thoughts-around-this-weekends-snow/

Feb 19

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/

Feb 17

Burst Of Snow Transitions To Sleet & Freezing Rain Before Ending…

A burst of snow will move across central Indiana during the predawn hours (a few hours earlier than guidance suggested). Precipitation will become more widespread late morning into the early afternoon hours and as milder air aloft arrives on the scene, light snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain before ending. Further north (Kokomo to Ft. Wayne), precipitation is expected to remain all snow where 1”-3” will fall today before ending. Highs will top out around the freezing mark later this afternoon before falling into the middle 20s tonight. A few slick spots may develop on area roadways.

Much more later this morning on the week ahead and what looms further down the road as we wrap up the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/17/burst-of-snow-transitions-to-sleet-freezing-rain-before-ending/

Feb 15

All-Access Client Brief: Wintry Close To The Weekend…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: Sunday morning into the evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal 

We’re heading into the 2nd consecutive weekend with a snowy close across at least portions of central Indiana- especially along and north of I-70. Upper level energy will get snow going during the predawn hours Sunday before potentially a more significant period of snow takes hold late morning into the afternoon. This is thanks to a surface wave moving northeast along the OH River eventually into western PA. We believe just north of the surface low a stripe of snow (potentially to the tune of 3″ to 5″) will develop from east-central IN into OH and on into central PA. We’ll have to fine tune this as we progress into the weekend. Please stay tuned.

Confidence: Medium

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/15/all-access-client-brief-wintry-close-to-the-weekend/

Feb 09

Snow And Freezing Rain For The 2nd Half Of The Weekend…

Brief: Accumulating snow and freezing rain

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow and freezing rain

When: Late Sunday morning into Sunday evening

Temperatures: Lower 20s rising to near freezing by Sunday night

Wind: SE to S 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ drifting: Minimal to non-existent

After a cold and quiet open to the weekend, a disturbance will overspread moisture over the top of a modifying (still cold enough for trouble) air mass as we close the weekend. Snow will likely reach Indianapolis and surrounding communities late morning Sunday, continuing into the afternoon hours. Snowfall intensity will be light with occasional moderate bursts. As relatively milder air aloft gets pulled north, precipitation will end as light freezing rain Sunday evening. While we don’t anticipate heavy accretion, a light glaze will likely be noted on top of the freshly fallen snow Sunday evening.

Confidence: Medium to high

Next Update: 5p

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/09/snow-and-freezing-rain-for-the-2nd-half-of-the-weekend/

Feb 05

Whole Lot Of Weather Going On…

There’s sure no shortage of active weather, and unfortunately (or fortunately- depending on your perspective), there’s no letup in sight. As we look ahead, we see a fascinating battle of heavyweights set to duke it out for control of our mid and late February pattern. Before we get into some of the longer range model updates, let’s focus on the short and medium term challenges.

Heavy Rain

We continue to target (3) distinct windows where rainfall will be heaviest:

I. Late tonight-Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday night-Thursday morning

III. Thursday evening

In general, widespread 2″ to 2.5″ totals are expected in area rain gauges with heavier amounts across south-central Indiana (where flood risks are highest).

The other item to note? The potential of strong and gusty thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the early evening. These would be located directly ahead of the cold front. While we’re not anticipating a widespread major event, temperatures and dew points will approach 60 deg. and the atmosphere will be favorable to support a few strong gusts that may mix down to the surface.

Sharply Colder

The cold front that will deliver the heavy rainfall for our midweek will sweep through central Indiana around 4p-5p. Behind the boundary, sharply colder air will blow in on strong and gusty northwest winds Thursday night. Daytime highs (actual highs will occur at midnight Friday) will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the 0s most of the day.

Winter Threat Late Weekend-Early Next Week?

The fresh batch of cold air in here to wrap up the work week will lay the ground work for potential wintry mischief late weekend into early next week. While the cold still isn’t set to truly establish itself (still think we’re a week-10 days away from that), just enough cold may be around to present the opportunity for an accumulating central and northern Ohio Valley winter threat in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

The hesitation that we still have from beginning to “ring the bells” a little louder in the aforementioned period is the position of the high in front of the storm and forecast strongly positive AO. Both of these argue against the idea of this being a widespread wintry event for the southern, and potentially as far north as central Ohio Valley. The early idea here as of now is that we’ll be looking at a wintry mix event to rain for central and southern areas with more of an opportunity for substantial snow across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. Again, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things.

Longer term, today’s MJO update continues to take things into Phase 8 and you don’t need us to cover the end result again (think cold) at this point. Should we get the other teleconnections to line-up (AO, PNA, NAO) then a 2-3 week period of significant winter weather would ensue during the 2/20-3/10 timeframe…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/05/whole-lot-of-weather-going-on/

Jan 30

Snowy Thursday Evening-Friday Morning…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: Thursday evening into the predawn hours Friday

Temperatures: 15 to 20 F

Wind: ESE 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ drifting: Minimal

Dangerous cold is the story now, but we still expect an accumulating snow to pile up to the tune of a few to several inches across n-central and parts of central Indiana Thursday evening into the predawn hours Friday. Heaviest snow should fall during a period between 8p and 1a. Snowfall intensity will likely reach 1″/ hr at times as banding develops. We expect all accumulating snow to be over before sunrise Friday morning.

Confidence: Medium to high

Next Update: 6:30p Thursday


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/30/snowy-thursday-evening-friday-morning/

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