Category: ClientBrief

Dec 15

Client Brief: Updated Snowfall Forecast; Conditions Go Downhill Quickly This Evening…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

Forecast radar 9p Sunday

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: This evening and Monday afternoon – Tuesday morning

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the middle 20s Tuesday morning

Wind: East northeast 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the northwest Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Right out of the gate, let’s talk accumulation: While we don’t need to make significant changes to the snowfall forecast, we did “tighten” the 3″ to 6″ band up a bit and scaled the 1″ to 3″ zones closer into central Indiana on both the north and south sides. This continues to be a central Indiana event- at least as far as heaviest snowfall totals go.

This event will still come in 2 waves, but it now appears as if the initial surge of moisture this evening and tonight will feature the heaviest snowfall rates. Snow will overspread the region this evening (arriving into Indianapolis, itself, between 6p and 7p) and come down heavily at times through the overnight hours. Part 1 will end before daybreak, but the damage will have been done by that point and the morning commute will be significantly impacted as central Indiana digs out from 3″ to 5″ of wet snow.

We’ll get a break through the bulk of the daytime Monday, but precipitation will once again overspread the region from southwest to northeast Monday evening, continuing into the predawn hours Tuesday. This will take the form of snow across central Indiana with a wintry mix and/ or a cold rain across southern and southeastern Indiana. An additional coating to 1″ of snow is possible with this 2nd wave of moisture.

Finally, winds will shift to the northwest and drive colder air into the state Monday night behind the departing storm. Everyone (including southeastern Indiana) will be below freezing Tuesday morning with additional travel impacts likely.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-updated-snowfall-forecast-conditions-go-downhill-quickly-this-evening/

Dec 14

Client Brief: Snow Storm Inbound Sunday Evening – Monday…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the lower to middle 20s Monday night

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Sunday will feature a thickening and lowering cloud deck through the afternoon hours and this foretells what’s to come by evening. An expanding area of snow will overspread southern Indiana early evening and push into central/ north-central Indiana by mid-to-late evening, continuing into Sunday night. This will be the 1st of 2 rounds of wintry precipitation that will likely result in “plowable” accumulations for a good chunk of central Indiana come Monday evening. There will likely be a “lull” in the wintry precipitation Monday morning, but we anticipate widespread wintry precipitation to return late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours Monday. In and around Indianapolis and points north, this 2nd round of precipitation should also primarily take the form of snow, but we think southern Indiana will have a period of sleet and potentially a cold rain across far southern Indiana before transitioning back to snow before ending. Because of this, we think southern Indiana will fall into the 1″ to 3″ range for storm totals. Much colder air will pour into the state Monday evening as winds shift to the north/ northwest and gust up to 25 MPH. Snow will pull out of the state from west to east late Monday night. Due to the timing of this storm, big impacts are expected to the morning and evening rush hours Monday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 2:30p Saturday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-snow-storm-inbound-sunday-evening-monday/

Dec 13

Client Brief: Impactful Winter Weather Event Sunday Evening Through Monday…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.

We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.

Confidence: Medium-High

Next Update: This evening (Video)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-impactful-winter-weather-event-sunday-evening-through-monday/

Nov 26

Client Brief: Damaging Wind Gusts Arrive Tonight-Wednesday Morning…

Type: Damaging Wind

What: Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH

When: Tonight into Wednesday morning 

Wind: Winds will increase this evening, gusting to 40 MPH before sunset. Southwest winds will gust to 50 to 55 MPH overnight into the predawn hours Wednesday. Wind speeds will slowly begin to diminish as we move into Wednesday afternoon.

Power Outages: The combination of wet ground and strong winds will likely lead to scattered power outages across central Indiana tonight and Wednesday.

A few light showers will move southwest to northeast across central Indiana later this afternoon, but it’s not until just after sunset when rain should become more widespread. We’ll likely even introduce some thunderstorms into the mix after midnight. Most of central Indiana can expect 0.50″ to 0.75″ of rain with the passage of this storm system. The bigger story will be the wind. It’ll become increasingly gusty as we progress through the afternoon and evening (30-40 MPH gusts), but gusts will reach potentially damaging levels tonight into the predawn hours Wednesday. It’s during this time period when we anticipate 50 to 55 MPH gusts across central Indiana. Rain will end by mid-morning Wednesday and wind speeds will begin to slowly diminish. 40-45 MPH gusts are still a good bet into mid-afternoon before gusts subside Wednesday evening. Finally, colder air will arrive Wednesday morning and leftover moisture may fall as a few snow flurries into the afternoon Wednesday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Video discussion this evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-damaging-wind-gusts-arrive-tonight-wednesday-morning/

Nov 23

Client Brief: Wet Snow Develops This Afternoon Into The Evening…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating wet snow

When: This afternoon into early evening 

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s early afternoon to around 30° by late evening.

Wind: North 20-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Pavement Impacts: Salting required. Plowing will also likely be needed across east-central Indiana.

There’s an old saying in the weather business of an “upper low being a weatherman’s foe.” That’s particularly true early and late in the season due to the added complexities of marginally cold air typically available. As we discussed over the past week, the dynamics and cold air these type of systems can manufacture also creates added headache. Many instances these kind of systems result in essentially a “now cast” scenario. With all of that said, our confidence is increasing after another look at overnight model runs to put out the snowfall forecast above. Rain will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon, however, as the precipitation rates increase, we’ll notice a transition to wet snow this afternoon into the evening. There could also be a brief wintry mix, including sleet, during the transition to wet snow. Banding features will likely develop late afternoon into early evening leading to heavier snowfall across east-central parts of the state where we have the 1″ to 3″ snowfall forecast up. For the remainder of central Indiana, most should be closer to a coating with a few 1″ reports. The snow will exit even far eastern areas before midnight.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: This afternoon

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-wet-snow-develops-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/