Category: ClientBrief

Feb 05

Client Brief: Conditions Deteriorate By Late Afternoon…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix of sleet and snow will arrive into central IN between 4p and 5p.

What: Accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: This evening and Thursday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30°

Wind: Northeast 10 to 20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate across northern Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will be required in the “snow zone.”

A surface wave will move from the middle MS River Valley into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday morning. Eventually this system will push into the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

After a mostly dry daytime, precipitation will become more widespread by late afternoon and early evening. More specifically, we anticipate a wintry mix of sleet and snow to move into Indianapolis and a greater chunk of central Indiana between 4p and 5p. Waves of moisture will continue to impact the region into tonight, but as warmer air aloft moves overhead, precipitation is expected to transition to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain during this time frame. Up to 2 tenths of an inch of glaze is possible across the I-70 corridor this evening. We recommend avoiding travel if possible tonight across central Indiana with icy spots expected to develop on area roadways. Across most of central Indiana, snow and sleet accumulation should remain less than 1″. Further north, precipitation will remain predominantly snow with 2″ to 4″ expected.

Colder air aloft will return Thursday allowing precipitation to transition back to light snow across central Indiana. As upper level support swings through the state, snow should become more widespread Thursday night into Friday morning with additional light accumulation possible.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/05/client-brief-conditions-deteriorate-by-late-afternoon/

Feb 03

Client Brief: Multiple Rounds Of Wintry Precipitation Expected Tuesday Night-Thursday Night…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix will begin to impact parts of central IN as early as Tuesday evening.

What: Potential of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: Multiple rounds:

I. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: Northeast 20 to 30 MPH and gusty Tuesday night, shifting to the north, northwest 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday night into Thursday.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will likely be required in the “snow zone.”

A complex weather pattern will result in a multitude of precipitation types across the state in the Tuesday night through Thursday night time period. Here’s our early thinking where we think the various types of precipitation setup shop:

As we time things out, rain is expected to overspread most of the state Tuesday morning. Heaviest and most concentrated rainfall should occur along and south of the I-70 corridor. A downright balmy start to the day will trend significantly colder (especially around and after lunchtime). As cold air continues to ooze south, renewed precipitation is expected to break out Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, courtesy of a wave moving along the cold front. With colder air in place, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain through the “heart” of central Indiana with snow across northern parts of the state. With temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday evening, slick spots on area roadways are anticipated to develop- even despite the recent warm weather of the past couple of days.

Most of the daytime should feature a relative “lull” in the precipitation with nearly steady temperatures across central and northern Indiana (around or just below freezing). The briefly quiet times will give way to another round of more widespread and heavier precipitation Wednesday evening, continuing into the day Thursday as a stronger wave of low pressure moves northeast from northern MS, along the Ohio River, and into eastern Ohio. Like what we’ll experience tomorrow evening, the precipitation forms will vary significantly based on your locale. We think another round of sleet (perhaps some freezing rain across south-central Indiana) will dominate across central Indiana, with primarily snow across northern Indiana. Within the highlighted “snow zone,” amounts of 3″ to 6″ certainly seem possible by the time all is said and done Thursday evening.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/03/client-brief-multiple-rounds-of-wintry-precipitation-expected-tuesday-night-thursday-night/

Jan 17

Client Brief: Wintry Mix Arrives This Evening; Slick Travel Expected Across A Portion Of The Region…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A burst of snow will move into central Indiana between 5p and 7p.

What: Coating of snow and light glaze of ice

When: This evening into tonight

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30° before rising into the upper 30s after sunrise

Wind: Southeast tonight 20-30 MPH, shifting to the south Saturday morning and gusting to 40 MPH before shifting to the west behind the cold front Saturday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required today.

An area of low pressure will track across the central Plains today into the lower Great Lakes and into New England Saturday into Sunday. An associated cold front will sweep through the region Saturday PM resulting in a return of very cold air Saturday night into early next week.

The majority of the day will remain precipitation-free across the state with a lowering and thickening cloud deck by afternoon. As our attention shifts to late afternoon and evening, an initial burst of snow will make it’s way into west-central Indiana (around Terre Haute) before arriving into the city, itself, towards 6p to 7p. For a good chunk of central Indiana, this snow will transition rather quickly to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as evening gives way to nighttime. In and around Indianapolis and northern suburbs, expect a snow/ sleet accumulation of up to 1″ followed by a light glaze of ice. Further north, snow will hang on longer as the predominant precipitation type, resulting in accumulations of 2″ to 4″. If traveling this evening into tonight, icy roads are likely across central Indiana. Temperatures will warm above freezing prior to sunrise Saturday with significant improvement expected on area roadways. This will help precipitation transition to a cold rain Saturday morning before a cold front whips across the state and sends temperatures into a nose dive Saturday evening. Gusty winds will accompany this frontal passage (40 MPH gusts) and any leftover moisture will refreeze Saturday evening resulting in patchy black ice issues on untreated surfaces.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tonight

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/17/client-brief-wintry-mix-arrives-this-evening-slick-travel-expected-across-a-portion-of-the-region/

Jan 10

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Increases Flood Potential Into The Weekend; Strong Wind Also A Concern…

Type: Heavy Rain & Strong Winds

What: Localized flood potential 

When: Friday and Saturday

Rain Amounts: 2.5″ to 3.5″ (localized heavier totals)

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH+ Saturday

Periods of moderate to heavy rain developed during the overnight and continue as we type this client brief this morning. Rain will continue for a good portion of today into tonight (locally heavy at times) before we likely go through a break in the rain early Saturday morning. That lull in the action won’t last long as rain is quickly expected to return by late morning and continue through the afternoon, into the early evening hours. What will already be a windy day today (30-40 MPH gusts) will only grow worse Saturday with some 50 MPH gusts a good bet.

As the surface low moves to our northeast, a cold front will sweep through the state Saturday evening and shut off the rain. Cooler air will move in to close the weekend.

Modeled forecast rainfall totals by 8p Saturday

Confidence: High

Next Update: Friday evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/10/client-brief-heavy-rain-increases-flood-concerns-into-the-weekend-strong-wind-also-a-concern/

Jan 08

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Arrives Friday Into Saturday…

Type: Heavy Rain

What: Localized flood potential

When: Friday into Saturday

Rain Amounts: 2.5″ to 3.5″ (localized heavier totals)

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH+

The National Weather Service has hoisted Flood Watches across central Indiana in advance of an approaching strong storm system that will present the greatest impacts, locally, in the Friday evening through Saturday morning time period.

Clouds will increase through the day tomorrow (after a sunny start) and light rain will likely follow by evening. Rain will increase in overall coverage and intensity and become heavy at times across central IN Friday morning. We may see a “lull” in the heavy rain Friday evening before widespread moderate to heavy rain returns overnight into Saturday. As things stand this evening, it appears as if the heaviest rainfall amounts will fall from Indianapolis and points west (and north) and the GFS forecast storm total rainfall amounts is our preferred solution this evening- including widespread 2.5″ to 3.5″ totals (locally heavier amounts possible) with this system. Localized flooding will likely result.

Precipitation will exit off to the northeast Saturday afternoon-evening and may end as a “touch” of wet snow across central Indiana (no significant impacts expected from a wintry precipitation standpoint). If traveling north, greater impacts from wintry precipitation can be expected across northern Indiana from a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7a Thursday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/08/client-brief-heavy-rain-arrives-friday-into-saturday/

Dec 15

Client Brief: Updated Snowfall Forecast; Conditions Go Downhill Quickly This Evening…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

Forecast radar 9p Sunday

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: This evening and Monday afternoon – Tuesday morning

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the middle 20s Tuesday morning

Wind: East northeast 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the northwest Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Right out of the gate, let’s talk accumulation: While we don’t need to make significant changes to the snowfall forecast, we did “tighten” the 3″ to 6″ band up a bit and scaled the 1″ to 3″ zones closer into central Indiana on both the north and south sides. This continues to be a central Indiana event- at least as far as heaviest snowfall totals go.

This event will still come in 2 waves, but it now appears as if the initial surge of moisture this evening and tonight will feature the heaviest snowfall rates. Snow will overspread the region this evening (arriving into Indianapolis, itself, between 6p and 7p) and come down heavily at times through the overnight hours. Part 1 will end before daybreak, but the damage will have been done by that point and the morning commute will be significantly impacted as central Indiana digs out from 3″ to 5″ of wet snow.

We’ll get a break through the bulk of the daytime Monday, but precipitation will once again overspread the region from southwest to northeast Monday evening, continuing into the predawn hours Tuesday. This will take the form of snow across central Indiana with a wintry mix and/ or a cold rain across southern and southeastern Indiana. An additional coating to 1″ of snow is possible with this 2nd wave of moisture.

Finally, winds will shift to the northwest and drive colder air into the state Monday night behind the departing storm. Everyone (including southeastern Indiana) will be below freezing Tuesday morning with additional travel impacts likely.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/15/client-brief-updated-snowfall-forecast-conditions-go-downhill-quickly-this-evening/

Dec 14

Client Brief: Snow Storm Inbound Sunday Evening – Monday…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the lower to middle 20s Monday night

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Sunday will feature a thickening and lowering cloud deck through the afternoon hours and this foretells what’s to come by evening. An expanding area of snow will overspread southern Indiana early evening and push into central/ north-central Indiana by mid-to-late evening, continuing into Sunday night. This will be the 1st of 2 rounds of wintry precipitation that will likely result in “plowable” accumulations for a good chunk of central Indiana come Monday evening. There will likely be a “lull” in the wintry precipitation Monday morning, but we anticipate widespread wintry precipitation to return late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours Monday. In and around Indianapolis and points north, this 2nd round of precipitation should also primarily take the form of snow, but we think southern Indiana will have a period of sleet and potentially a cold rain across far southern Indiana before transitioning back to snow before ending. Because of this, we think southern Indiana will fall into the 1″ to 3″ range for storm totals. Much colder air will pour into the state Monday evening as winds shift to the north/ northwest and gust up to 25 MPH. Snow will pull out of the state from west to east late Monday night. Due to the timing of this storm, big impacts are expected to the morning and evening rush hours Monday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: 2:30p Saturday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/14/client-brief-snow-storm-inbound-sunday-evening-monday/

Dec 13

Client Brief: Impactful Winter Weather Event Sunday Evening Through Monday…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: Sunday evening through Monday

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s

Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.

We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.

Confidence: Medium-High

Next Update: This evening (Video)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/13/client-brief-impactful-winter-weather-event-sunday-evening-through-monday/

Nov 26

Client Brief: Damaging Wind Gusts Arrive Tonight-Wednesday Morning…

Type: Damaging Wind

What: Wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH

When: Tonight into Wednesday morning 

Wind: Winds will increase this evening, gusting to 40 MPH before sunset. Southwest winds will gust to 50 to 55 MPH overnight into the predawn hours Wednesday. Wind speeds will slowly begin to diminish as we move into Wednesday afternoon.

Power Outages: The combination of wet ground and strong winds will likely lead to scattered power outages across central Indiana tonight and Wednesday.

A few light showers will move southwest to northeast across central Indiana later this afternoon, but it’s not until just after sunset when rain should become more widespread. We’ll likely even introduce some thunderstorms into the mix after midnight. Most of central Indiana can expect 0.50″ to 0.75″ of rain with the passage of this storm system. The bigger story will be the wind. It’ll become increasingly gusty as we progress through the afternoon and evening (30-40 MPH gusts), but gusts will reach potentially damaging levels tonight into the predawn hours Wednesday. It’s during this time period when we anticipate 50 to 55 MPH gusts across central Indiana. Rain will end by mid-morning Wednesday and wind speeds will begin to slowly diminish. 40-45 MPH gusts are still a good bet into mid-afternoon before gusts subside Wednesday evening. Finally, colder air will arrive Wednesday morning and leftover moisture may fall as a few snow flurries into the afternoon Wednesday.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Video discussion this evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/26/client-brief-damaging-wind-gusts-arrive-tonight-wednesday-morning/

Nov 23

Client Brief: Wet Snow Develops This Afternoon Into The Evening…

Type: Impactful Winter Weather

What: Accumulating wet snow

When: This afternoon into early evening 

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s early afternoon to around 30° by late evening.

Wind: North 20-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Pavement Impacts: Salting required. Plowing will also likely be needed across east-central Indiana.

There’s an old saying in the weather business of an “upper low being a weatherman’s foe.” That’s particularly true early and late in the season due to the added complexities of marginally cold air typically available. As we discussed over the past week, the dynamics and cold air these type of systems can manufacture also creates added headache. Many instances these kind of systems result in essentially a “now cast” scenario. With all of that said, our confidence is increasing after another look at overnight model runs to put out the snowfall forecast above. Rain will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon, however, as the precipitation rates increase, we’ll notice a transition to wet snow this afternoon into the evening. There could also be a brief wintry mix, including sleet, during the transition to wet snow. Banding features will likely develop late afternoon into early evening leading to heavier snowfall across east-central parts of the state where we have the 1″ to 3″ snowfall forecast up. For the remainder of central Indiana, most should be closer to a coating with a few 1″ reports. The snow will exit even far eastern areas before midnight.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: This afternoon

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/23/client-brief-wet-snow-develops-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/

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