Category: ClientBrief

Jan 10

Client Brief: Rain To Snow? Yes, But Bigger Deal Damaging Wind Potential And Bitter Cold…

Updated 01.10.24 @ 5:33p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

A prolonged period of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds will develop Friday into Saturday.
Expected maximum wind gusts

What: Rain changing to snow; prolonged period of strong winds, and bitter cold

When: Friday, 1/12/24 and Saturday, 1/13/24

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Temperatures: Middle 40s Friday falling below freezing Friday night and below zero by Sunday morning.

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required Friday night through the weekend.

Summary: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will track through central Indiana Friday. What will likely be a SLP in the low 990s (millibars) Friday morning is liable to be in the low 970mb range by Friday night in southern Michigan. This will undoubtedly lead to a “big blow” across all of the region as we close out the work week and head into the weekend and that’s where we want to start with the headlines. A prolonged period of 20-30 MPH winds with gusts close to 50 MPH can be expected during this time frame.

As far as precipitation goes, rain is forecast to move into central Indiana Friday morning, falling heavy at times. If you have travel plans up north across northern Indiana, more in the way of wet snow is forecast during this time period. We’re not expecting to transition to snow until after sunset Friday (from west to east) as colder air pours in on the backside of the strengthening low. Snow showers will continue to fall into Saturday morning and with the strong and gusty northwest winds in place, lowered visibility and some slick spots can be expected across the region. Only light snow amounts are forecast, locally, to the tune of 0.50″ to 1.50″, but good luck measuring that in all of the wind. Scattered snow showers (arctic haze) will continue into Sunday as brutal arctic air oozes into the region.

Confidence: High

Next update: 7:30a Thr

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-rain-to-snow-yes-but-bigger-deal-damaging-wind-potential-and-bitter-cold/

Mar 02

Client Brief: Thursday Evening Update…

Updated 03.02.23 @ 11:03p

Type: Flooding and Severe Weather; North-Central IN Wet Snow

What: Heavy rain and severe weather; north-central Indiana heavy wet snow

When: Friday, 3/3/23

Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Summary: A deepening area of low pressure will track into the central Ohio Valley as we close the work week. This will lead to an expanding area of heavy precipitation through the overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitation will fall in the form of heavy rain across central portions of the region, including the Indianapolis area, along with a flood threat. Further north, heavy wet snow will develop across northern IN, into the greater CHI area and into central MI. Note: Early 00z guidance is shifting this area of low pressure further southeast which puts more of north-central parts of the state in play for wet snow accumulation Friday afternoon. We’ll continue to monitor overnight trends but the possibility is there that the rain-snow line will have to shift south compared to what most of the data has been showing the past couple of days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2”+ can be expected into central IN along with non-thunderstorm gusts of 50+ MPH.

We bracket the 1p to 4p window for the threat of severe storms. This risk lies from Indianapolis proper and points south. We anticipate a line of storms to “bow” out, leading to an elevated damaging wind threat across southern IN during this time period but we also note the potential of a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes within this line of storms, as well. It’ll be important to have a means of getting any and all warnings Friday. Keep tuned to local media or have a way to receive the latest National Weather Service updates. All of the “action,” including the heavy rain threat is expected to wind down Friday evening, including much calmer and quieter conditions returning Friday night.

We’ll be back with a fresh video discussion no later than 7:30a Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-thursday-evening-update/

Jan 24

Client Brief: Heavy Snow Storm Rolls Into Town Overnight…

Updated 01.24.23 @ 6p

Type: Winter Storm

What: Heavy snow and gusty winds

When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon

Temperatures: Lower 30s

Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…

Confidence: High

Next Update: 7:30a Wed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-heavy-snow-storm-rolls-into-town-overnight/

Dec 22

Client Brief: Use This Morning To Finalize Prep For Blizzard Conditions And Dangerous Cold Tonight – Christmas Eve…

Updated 12.22.22 @ 7:40a

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Late this afternoon through Christmas Eve

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: NW 15-25 MPH, shifting to the WSW and increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Light rain is overspreading central Indiana this morning as moisture is slowly pulled northward ahead of the approaching arctic cold front. That arctic front is still expected to plow across the state this afternoon (just after lunchtime across western IN, between 3p and 4p for Indianapolis, and by 7p – 8p for our far eastern IN neighbors). Once the front hits, you’ll notice a dramatic wind shift to the northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, along with a temperature plummet. We’ll likely see temperatures fall more than 20° in less than 90 minutes once the arctic front passes.

As all of this is taking shape, a wave of low pressure will move from southwest IN late afternoon into eastern MI by Friday morning. Long time Hoosiers know that’s a classic track to deposit a nice snowstorm around these parts. Rain will change to snow in the city around, or just after, 4p and we’ll notice the swath of snow growing in overall coverage and intensity as the low pressure system deepens. Periods of heavy snow can be expected at times tonight.

Meanwhile, winds will continue to increase to 25-35 MPH sustained with gusts to 50 MPH tonight, continuing through the day Friday and into the first portion of Christmas Eve morning. These persistent strong winds won’t only potentially lead to power outages, but continuous blowing and drifting issues through the aforementioned period. Blizzard and whiteout conditions will continue at times. Snow removal efforts will likely have to continue into Christmas Eve to account for the severe blowing and drifting on area roadways, especially north-south roadways. While the heavy snow will come to an end early Friday morning, light snow and blowing snow will persist through the day Friday and into early Christmas Eve morning.

Finally, the dangerous cold is going to be a big problem with this multi-faceted winter storm. After we fall to below zero Friday morning, highs on Friday likely won’t make it back much above 0°. Add in the wind and wind chill values of more than 30° below zero can be expected.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening (video discussion)


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-use-this-morning-to-finalize-prep-for-blizzard-conditions-and-dangerous-cold-tonight-christmas-eve/

Dec 21

Client Brief: Dangerous Cold & Blizzard Conditions Arrive Thursday Night Into Friday…

Updated 12.21.22 @ 1:31p

Type: Severe Winter Weather

What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures

When: Thursday PM through Christmas Eve

Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).

Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Severe

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.

Summary: Precipitation is anticipated to overspread central IN Thursday morning in the form of a light cold rain. Light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours with temperatures ranging anywhere from the mid to upper 30s. The arctic front will arrive into the city, itself around 4p to 5p and this is when we expect rain to quickly change to snow. As this takes place, surface low pressure is expected to ride northeast from southwest IN into northwester/ north-central Ohio, allowing a blossoming area of more widespread, heavier snow to fall across the region Thursday evening, continuing through the overnight period. To make matters more hazardous, temperatures will fall from the aforementioned mid-upper 30s early afternoon into the single digits by 9p to 10p. The rapid temperature fall will allow any/ all moisture to freeze and further complicate travel with the increasing snowfall rates.

Forecast models this afternoon are split between (2) camps: the weaker and more progressive NAM and European, and the more “revved up” GFS and Canadian guidance. With that said, we’ll lean towards the European/ NAM blend to build our snowfall forecast below (good luck measuring whatever falls ;-)), but will continue to keep a close eye on trends through the evening and tonight. Side note: We’ll have a more detailed video discussion posted this evening that will dive into the very latest data trends with our current storm, look ahead to another snow maker on deck early next week, a significant warm-up, and subsequent return of cold, wintry conditions. 

If all of this wasn’t enough, winds will increase in speed and turn gusty through the evening Thursday, continuing into and through the day on Friday, as well as Christmas Eve. Periodic gusts upwards of 40 to 50 MPH will lead to severe blowing and drifting snow, whiteout and blizzard conditions during this period. We strongly advise against traveling Thursday evening through Friday. “Wrap around” lighter snow and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Friday with temperatures struggling to make it much above the 0° mark. Severe blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions will continue Friday to combine with the dangerous cold.

The prolonged nature of such strong winds, combined with expected snowfall amounts will continue to lead to hazardous travel through Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, winds aren’t expected to diminish until Christmas morning. By this point, all eyes will be focused on the next snow maker due in here late Christmas night or early Monday in the form of a clipper system.

More on all of this later this evening in our updated video discussion.

Confidence: High

Next Update: By 7p Wednesday (video discussion)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-dangerous-cold-blizzard-conditions-arrive-thursday-night-into-friday/