Category: ClientBrief

Oct 24

Client Brief: Heavy Rain Saturday

Type: Heavy Rain

What: Heavy rain and gusty winds

When: Overnight Friday through Saturday

Rain Amounts: 1″ to 3″- see below on current thoughts

Wind: East 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH+

After a fairly quiet close to the work week, a vigorous upper low will track east out of OK, across northern AR, and northeast into the Ohio Valley. In response, a surface low will develop across the MS Valley Friday night, moving northeast into OH by Saturday night. The end result will be close to a (24) hr period of steady rain, at times heavy, across all of central Indiana. Additionally, we anticipate a period of gusty easterly winds Saturday morning into the afternoon hours. Widespread 1″ to 1.5″ rainfall can be expected with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana. Meanwhile, southern and southeastern Indiana can expect rainfall totals of 2″ to 3″ with locally heavier amounts. Rainfall coverage and intensity will diminish from southwest to northeast Saturday night.

Heavy rain will overspread central Indiana Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-heavy-rain-saturday/

Oct 21

Wet, Windy, And Stormy Day Ahead…

A cold front will push across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern.

The Storm Prediction Center now includes portions of central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk for severe weather.

We expect a couple of rounds of storms today- one mid to late morning followed by another this evening directly ahead of the cold front.

Forecast radar 10a
Forecast radar 7p

Rain will end from west to east during the evening as the cold front sweeps across the state. Before that, some area rain gauges may accumulate around an inch of rain today (a few locally heavier totals possible).

The other headline today will be strong and gusty winds (originally out of the southwest before shifting to west this evening). Even outside of thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 40 MPH can be expected.

Drier and cooler air will arrive Tuesday through Thursday before another chilly, wet weather maker blows into town Thursday evening into Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-windy-and-stormy-day-ahead/

Jun 14

Fall-Like Conditions Set To Be Replaced By Periods Of Heavy Rain…

Temperatures are in the 40s area-wide this morning across central Indiana. Speaking of the 40s, they extend all the way south into the north Georgia mountains as we start our Friday. (Hard to believe for mid June). Widespread below normal temperatures continue to dominate the eastern portion of the country.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and help feature dry conditions with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs today will top out in the middle 70s after the crisp start to the day.

Unfortunately, the cool, dry conditions will quickly give way to an increasingly moist airmass overnight into Saturday morning and rain will follow. The reason? We’ll be on the backside of the area of high pressure with a southwest flow aloft helping transport moisture northeast into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a series of warm fronts will pass over the weekend, featuring periods of more concentrated storms and associated heavy rainfall. Finally, a cold front will push south Sunday into Monday before stalling out just south of our area Tuesday.

While this may provide a briefly drier period Tuesday, we’ll have to contend with periods of heavy rain and storms before hand. More specific around timing, we think rain may begin as early as 11p to midnight this evening before becoming more widespread and heavier Saturday morning. We’d suggest having a Plan B for outdoor activities this weekend as more time than not, it’ll likely be raining across central Indiana.

As mentioned earlier, we’ll replace the cool, dry air mass with more of a tropical feel this weekend and at times precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″. This raises our confidence in the potential and likelihood of heavy rainfall.

Widespread 1″ to 2″ rainfall totals can be expected across central Indiana this weekend, with locally heavier amounts. After a briefly drier period Tuesday, rain will return by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, widespread 7-day totals (ending Thursday night) will likely be in the 2.5″ to 3.5″ range across central Indiana…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/fall-like-conditions-set-to-be-replaced-by-periods-of-heavy-rain/

May 31

Gusty Storms Blow Into Town Saturday PM…

The Storm Prediction Center has pulled the “Slight” Risk area more into Indiana with their most recent update for Saturday and we believe this may encompass more of the immediate area with subsequent updates.

The biggest concern has to do with straight line wind potential with one, or multiple lines of storms that will rumble through the state Saturday afternoon and evening.

The day will dawn bright and sunny with pleasant temperatures, but as the morning gives way to afternoon, conditions will destabilize and we’ll have our eyes focused to the northwest for thunderstorm initiation early afternoon across northern Indiana and Illinois. We then anticipate these individual storms to morph into a couple of lines of storms and push south into central Indiana during the mid and late afternoon/ early evening hours.

If you have outdoor plans tomorrow, please plan to have a means of receiving the latest information around potential severe thunderstorm watch/ warning information that may be required.

The 2nd half of the weekend will include fantastic weather (drier, less humid, and cooler) that will carry us into the first couple of days of the work week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/gusty-storms-blow-into-town-saturday-pm/

Mar 13

Client Brief: Thursday Severe Weather Update…

Type: Damaging Winds And Severe Potential

What: All modes of severe weather, including tornadic potential. Damaging wind gusts.

When: Damaging wind gusts develop late tonight into the predawn Thursday. Severe storms are most likely Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.

Wind: SW 45-55 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH+

Winds will begin to gust to potentially damaging levels during the overnight tonight.

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will impact central Indiana during the overnight and again Thursday afternoon and evening. It’s the second round tomorrow afternoon that has us most concerned for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. A lot of this hinges on just how much clearing takes place from the morning round of showers and embedded thunder. Should we clear things out in significant fashion, and introduce some sunshine, the threat of severe weather tomorrow afternoon will grow significantly. Conversely, should we hold onto a mostly overcast sky, this will limit the overall severity of afternoon storms. The sun would help destabilize things in rather rapid fashion and given some of the other parameters in place, would lead to all modes of severe weather with storms that develop tomorrow afternoon- including large hail and tornadoes.

Additionally, due to the sheer strength of the storm system, damaging winds are still in play tomorrow (even outside of thunderstorms). In fact, winds will begin to gust upwards of 50 MPH+ during the overnight period tonight. If you haven’t already, please take the time now to tie down or secure loose objects to keep them from being blown about in the wind.

Conditions will begin to improve as early as tomorrow night, although we’ll turn much colder. Air will grow cold enough to promote “wrap around” moisture to fall in the form of snow by Friday afternoon.

Threat of strong to severe storms will be greatest Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-thursday-severe-weather-update/