Category: Arctic Cold

10-Day AG-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 02.07.16

Forecast period: 02.07.16 – 02.17.16

Focal Items:

  • Busy winter pattern from the Plains east
  • Dry and warm across the West
  • Potential widespread winter storm threat days 7-10 from the Plains into the East

Summary: Changes are underway at the beginning of the period with a positive PNA pattern in place.  This will support a drier and warmer than normal time of things across the west with a shift towards much colder than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country.  Early in the period, we’re tracking a coastal storm that will deliver blizzard conditions to the Cape Monday and a big upper low over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  This will provide a prolonged snow shower event across the areas mentioned above.  Toward the end of the period, we’ll have to remain focused over the southern/ central Plains for the potential of a developing winter storm that would then advance into the Ohio Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic.

Sensible Impacts: Strong ridging across the West will keep things drier and warmer than normal, with the action across the eastern half of the nation.

In addition to snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions that will impact the Cape to open the work week, blizzard conditions will also impact the northern Plains as an upper trough drops south.  The same trough and associated upper level energy will deliver snow showers and embedded blinding snow squalls south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians through mid week, as well.

A very active northwest flow will send light to moderate snow makers southeast out of the N. Plains into the Ohio Valley through the upcoming work week.  Overall, most snowfall accumulations will remain light, with the exception of Snow Belt areas.

A significant winter storm appears to be brewing next weekend and could impact a large portion of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic towards the end of the period.

Temperature Anomalies: A very cold time of things is ahead for the forecast region through the period.  In some cases, temperatures will fall to levels some 15-20 degrees below normal.

Tuesday

Temperature anomalies Tuesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Precipitation: Snowfall will generally be light through the forecast region this week. Despite the light snowfall, very strong winds will likely lead to blizzard conditions in the open country, particularly across IA and MN early in the period. Heavier snow will be possible as the potential winter storm develops next weekend across the central Plains.

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Long Duration Snow Shower Event; Hope You Like Winter…

Screen Shot 2016-02-07 at 2.17.06 PMHighlights:

  • Long duration snow shower event
  • Heavier snow squalls possible Monday night-Tuesday morning
  • Another push of snow late week
  • Bigger winter storm potential at the end of the period

Long Duration Snow Shower Event…A cold front will move through the area late tonight and may be accompanied by a shower or sprinkle as it moves through the region.  Colder air will filter in behind the boundary after midnight and snow showers will begin to blossom Monday morning. This will be the beginning of a solid 48-60 hours of snow falling across most of central IN.  We think heavier snow bursts and embedded squalls are a good bet Monday night into Tuesday morning as the true arctic air begins to push into the area.  With so much upper level energy around, snow showers will continue into Wednesday.

As far as accumulation goes, we think the majority of central Indiana will accumulate 2″-3″ during the early week event, but this won’t be a uniform snow at all (there will be “haves” and “have nots”).  Locally, there will also be a few 4″ reports.

Though timing is a challenge in this fast, active northwest flow, we think we’ll be dry and cold Thursday before snow returns to close the work week as another disturbance and reinforcing arctic air move south.

Well below normal cold remains entrenched across the region for Valentine’s weekend, and we note wintry “fun and games” brewing to our west Saturday night into Sunday.  We’ll forecast a lowering and thickening cloud deck here Sunday with snow developing during the afternoon and evening. Early indications continue to suggest this could be a storm of “importance” around these parts…  Stay tuned.

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Saturday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  Be sure to get outside and enjoy today!  We’ll take sunshine this time of year any how we can get it! Big changes loom moving forward.  While Super Bowl…

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Series Of Upper Disturbances Bring Snow…

The relatively quiet and mild time of things this weekend will quickly give way to the promised return of winter next week.  An arctic cold front will sweep through the state late Sunday and set things in motion that will keep the weather feeling, and looking, very wintry around these parts over the upcoming week.

As we’ve discussed, models will struggle with handling the local impacts of multiple upper air disturbances that will race southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft.  We think Monday-Tuesday offer up the best chances of accumulating snow in the near term.  The upper energy will be able to maximize snow production around these parts and this looks like a 1″-3″ type event, with local amounts to 4″.  Winds will be quite gusty and blowing and drifting will be an issue, particularly in the open country.

Monday evening

Monday evening

Tuesday evening

Tuesday evening

Another vigorous disturbance will race southeast Thursday afternoon.  While the Canadian shows the bulk of the energy to our north, it would be close enough to ignite snow showers around here, as well.  Expect small changes with timing and track as we get closer.

ThursdayNight

Thursday evening

Longer term, we also keep close eyes on next weekend.  The pattern is one that should promote a significant widespread winter storm.  The devil is in the details and we still have a ways to go, but the pattern set-up is one that screams an Ohio Valley winter storm threat from this distance.

Giddy up! 🙂

European Ensemble Valentine's Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Valentine’s Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

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Friday Evening Video Update…

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