First and foremost, we want to wish you and your family a blessed Easter Sunday. Weather will be absolutely gorgeous, including sunny skies and highs that will top out in the lower 70s this afternoon! Enjoy!
Widespread well above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Greatest deviation from normal will be found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Large scale drier than normal conditions are on tap. Exception to this will be across the upper Midwest and central Gulf Coast region.
We forecast between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain to fall on most central Indiana lawns over the upcoming 7-day period.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected across the central Plains (starting Monday night and Tue) and into the lower MS Valley by midweek.
Forecast period: 04.04.21 through 04.11.21
High pressure will dominate our weather to open the forecast period. This will result in a gorgeous Easter Sunday and extend into the early portion of the work week. We’ll notice humidity levels slowly climbing and a few more clouds will be around, but otherwise very nice conditions will prevail through most of the daytime Tuesday. Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected throughout the week ahead. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Tuesday night and coverage will really ramp up through midweek. While the bulk of the severe weather is expected south of here, we’ll want to keep an eye on the potential of a couple stronger storms here Wednesday PM. The slow moving system should push east of here Friday evening, allowing high pressure to build back in as we open up next weekend.
Temperatures will run below normal through the upcoming period from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Meanwhile, resurgent warmth will build across the northern Plains.
After an active stretch of weather, an overall drier pattern will build in through the upcoming period across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the eastern seaboard will remain wetter than normal.
We forecast central Indiana to receive a half inch or less of rain over the upcoming 7-day period (most of that comes this morning and again with a frontal passage Tuesday night).
The most active severe weather day of the 7 upcoming will be today- primarily east of the mountains and into the Mid Atlantic region into the Southeast.
Forecast period: 03.28.21 through 04.04.21
You don’t need us to remind y’all just how active and busy things have been over the past couple of weeks. For those weather weary, an extended period of overall quieter weather will build in for the upcoming week. The only exception to that will be some early showers today and again with a frontal passage Tuesday night-predawn Wednesday. The bigger story will be the pop of unseasonably cold air that will arrive on the heels of the passage of the midweek cold front. We’re talking about some neighborhoods falling into the 10s by late week for morning lows. Brrrrr. Thankfully, the cold won’t last more than a couple of days and we’ll be back to moderating conditions as Easter Sunday arrives.
Above to well above normal temperatures will dominate the upcoming 7-days across the eastern half of the country. Meanwhile, cold will rule across the Rockies and points west.
The Gulf will open for business this week. 2 systems will tap into that Gulf of Mexico moisture, resulting in well above normal rainfall into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.50″ to 2″ can be expected across central IN in the week ahead, with locally heavier totals.
While the SPC doesn’t currently have any organized severe weather risk outlined in their Days 3-7 outlook, we’ll want to keep an eye on Thursday across the MS Valley into perhaps the OHV for a severe threat.
Forecast period: 03.21.21 through 03.28.21
While the period will open on a quiet note, we’re tracking 2 storm systems of significance in the week ahead. The first system will produce a smattering of showers and storms Tuesday before a second (stronger) storm system lifts northeast into the region Thursday. This is the system that will require attention as time draws closer. If the European’s further northwest track comes to fruition, enough warmth and humidity will be pulled north to result in at least a threat of stronger storms into our region. Regardless, heavy rain is a good bet Thursday as this storm blows through. The period will end with quieter weather as we get set to head into next weekend.
I. Tracking 2 coast-to-coast storms in the week ahead
II. Severe episodes begin to increase
Coldest anomalies will be centered over the deep snowpack across the Front Range. The Midwest and OHV region will run above to well above normal in the temperature department.
Well above normal precipitation will target the middle of the country, including into the Southeast.
We forecast between 1.25″ and 1.75″ for *most central IN rain gauges over the upcoming 7 days.
Each day this upcoming week will feature a threat of severe weather (including tornadoes), focused on the Plains and into the Southeast. That said, even into the OHV, a threat of stronger storms is present by midweek.
Widespread severe drought conditions persist across the 4-Corner region.
Forecast period: 03.14.21 through 03.21.21
An active week is in store for the region as a series of storm systems impacts the area. The first system will deliver widespread heavier precipitation (after today’s light, nuisance variety rain/ drizzle) late morning Monday into the afternoon hours. With just enough cold air in place, there’s the possibility this precipitation will mix with sleet and freezing rain from Indianapolis and points north briefly at the onset. That said, the wintry precipitation types won’t last long and things will quickly changeover to a plain ole rain by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers and a possible embedded storm will continue Tuesday as the surface low moves through the Ohio Valley.
Storm #2 quickly follows for St. Patrick’s Day. While we still have some time to fine tune things, I’d suggest keeping an eye on Wednesday afternoon for the possibility of stronger storm potential as far north as central IN and more of the Ohio Valley as a whole. The ingredients aren’t the best, but there seems to be just enough warmth and instability to at least warrant a close eye for this time period. We’ll do just that and update our products accordingly.
Quieter weather will build into the area by the weekend.
II. Heavy rain/ potential flooding threat looms late week across OHV
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Only exception to this will be across the West and far Southeast.
Above normal precipitation will target the MO Valley and into the western OHV.
We expect between 1″ and 2″ for most of IN in the week ahead.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.
Forecast period: 03.07.21 through 03.14.21
While our weather will remain “eerily quiet” to open this forecast period, significant changes await on deck by the 2nd half of the week. These changes will be ushered in from a cold front that will lead to increasing shower (maybe even embedded t-storm) chances Thursday before rain becomes widespread Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and European computer models begin to disagree on the evolution of things next weekend. The GFS stalls the front just to our south before a surface wave of low pressure rides along the boundary over the Saturday-Sunday period. Meanwhile, the European shoves the front off to the south in a quicker fashion, allowing for a drier weekend. We’ll need to keep a close eye on things and update in the days ahead. Should the GFS idea be correct, a flood threat would ensue, including weekend rainfall totals of several inches. We’re not ready to jump on the excessive rainfall idea yet, due to the differences in the handling of the frontal boundary/ associated surface wave, but will keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.
