Category: AG Report

May 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.

II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.

Below normal temperatures are expected across not only our area over the upcoming 7-day period, but a good portion of the East, courtesy of a “cut off” upper low.
The upper level low will also be responsible for generating a wet pattern along the eastern seaboard.
1.5” to 2” of rain is expected during the period across central Indiana. Most of this will fall tonight into Sunday.
A couple gusty storms are possible across the area Sunday. Overall, widespread severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20

Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!

Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.

That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-7/

May 11

From One Extreme To The Other…

The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.

Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.

A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!

The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.

For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.

We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/11/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/

May 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.

II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.

A transition in our overall weather pattern will lead to a return of wet weather mid-late week, including multiple rounds of t-storms from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
7-day rainfall should run between 1.75″ and 2.25″ with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana.
While the period will run cooler than normal, it’s because the first few days this week will run so far below normal. We’ll actually warm significantly mid-late week, however, the deviation from normal won’t be enough to tip the scale from the week being cooler overall across the Plains and East.
A couple gusty storms are possible across central and eastern IN this afternoon. We’ll also have to closely monitor late week for the threat of additional strong thunderstorms.

Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20

An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.

Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-6/

May 07

In Position To Challenge The All-Time Record Low For May Saturday; Discussing Degree Of Moderation Late Month…

We may only be a few weeks away from meteorological summer, but you wouldn’t know it. Instead, we’re talking about the potential of wet snow mixing in with a cold rain to close the work week and threat of lows falling into the 20s Saturday morning!

A strong cold front will settle south across the Ohio Valley Friday morning. In response to the front moving south, surface low pressure will organize along the boundary across the TN Valley Friday morning before roaring northeast and off the New England coast Saturday morning.

Widespread light rain will overspread the southern half of the state during the wee morning hours Friday, continuing into the mid to late morning before pushing off to the east. This will be a cold rain and may even mix with wet snowflakes at times before ending.

This won’t be a huge precipitation producer across central Indiana with most checking in between 0.10″ and 0.25″ (heavier amounts expected across southern Indiana).

Temperatures will slowly fall through the 40s during the daytime Friday. (Yes, we’re talking about May 8th)!

That then sets us up to at least be in position to break the all-time record low for the month of May (28° set in 1966). This will be an airmass with arctic origins and if high pressure can clear us out in time Friday night, overnight lows by Saturday morning are likely to fall into the upper 20s. High resolution guidance takes IND to between 26° and 27° while the European data remains consistent at 28°. Regardless, this will be “rare air” for so late in the season. Those with ag interests should use today to prepare for a hard freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looking ahead, the bulk of the upcoming 7-day period will remain much cooler than average, but there are at least hints of a potential pattern change during the 8-10 day period. The European data is much warmer than the GEFS or new JMA Weeklies that are in-house. Additionally, the teleconnections don’t scream an all-out pattern change. Regardless, a period of moderation would certainly be welcome after this unusually chilly spell. We’ll have much more on this later today with our long range video update. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/07/in-position-to-challenge-the-all-time-record-low-for-may-saturday-discussing-degree-of-moderation-late-month/

May 02

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. A cold front will settle south into a warm and at least marginally unstable environment tonight into early Sunday morning. This will result in a rather rapid expansion of thunderstorms across the central Ohio Valley tonight.

II. The next big item has to do with the unseasonably cold airmass that will unload into the eastern half of the country, but this is more of a late Week 1 into Week 2 situation.

Unseasonably dry conditions will continue to allow the Deep South to dry out over the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region also should run drier than normal.

Across immediate central Indiana, we’re targeting the upcoming 7-day period to produce between 1.5” and 2” of rain and most of that will fall tonight-early Sunday morning.
A highly amplified pattern will emerge late in the forecast period resulting in the overall 7-day period tilting towards a cooler than average one. Even colder air is scheduled next weekend into Week 2.
The best chance of a few strong to severe storms will take place late tonight into early Sunday morning as a cold front settles south into a briefly warmer/ unstable air mass.

Forecast Period: 05.02.20 through 05.09.20

Most of our Saturday will feature dry and pleasant conditions. It’ll be a great day to get caught up on yard work around the house before things take on a stormy turn tonight. A cold front will settle into the briefly warmer and more humid air mass and will ignite thunderstorm development by late evening. A few of these storms will likely become strong to severe late evening into the overnight period, including the potential of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Once the front settles to our south, the convection will also move south and out of our area mid-late Sunday morning. Beforehand, a swath of 1” rains are likely throughout central Indiana with a few locally heavier totals.

There will then be a couple of additional cold fronts to track through the upcoming week: Monday night into Tuesday and again Friday into Saturday. Both fronts should provide additional rain chances during that time frame followed by cooler air.

It’s the weekend front that will usher in more of a winter-like feel including the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions during the 7-10 day period. We may have not even seen the last of snow for the season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-5/

Apr 25

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Potent area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River, spreading rain across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, including higher elevation wet snow.

II. A surface low and associated cold front will sweep into Plains Tuesday and to the eastern seaboard by Thursday. This system will have to be monitored for not only the potentially of locally heavy rain, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms on the journey southeast.

Wettest anomalies will extend from the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast over the upcoming 7-days. Widespread dry conditions can be expected across the central Plains into the Rockies.
Immediate central-Indiana can expect 2″ to 2.5″ of rain between now and next Saturday morning, with locally heavier amounts.
Summer-like heat will bake the West while the eastern 1/3 of the country remains cooler than normal.
We will have to keep close tabs on the midweek cold front as it may ignite strong to severe storms from the Plains to the East Coast in the Tuesday-Thursday time period. The SPC is already highlighting a Day 4 (Tuesday) risk.

Forecast Period: 04.25.20 through 05.02.20

Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley, as a whole, will have to deal with both storm systems highlighted above. While we still believe dry conditions will prevail through a good portion of our Saturday, rain will become more widespread this evening into Sunday morning in response to a surface low moving northeast along the Ohio River. A couple heavier bands of rain may develop across the region tonight into Sunday morning and by the time all is said and done, the southern half of the state (along and south of the I-70 corridor) can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain by Sunday afternoon. Further north, amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ will be more common. Drier air will build in late Sunday afternoon, along with a cooler northeasterly and northerly flow behind our departing storm system.

Monday morning will open dry, but a weak weather maker will scoot through the state during the afternoon, resulting in scattered showers making a return Monday PM. These will be quick-moving showers and rainfall totals are expected to remain light for those that do see rain.

A much more organized storm system will push southeast Tuesday evening and Wednesday leading to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Stronger storms and locally heavy rain will be a good bet with this particular system. Drier, cooler air returns behind this system as we get set to wrap up the work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-4/

Apr 18

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Another significant severe weather outbreak is expected across the Gulf Coast region Sunday into Monday.

II. An area of low pressure will bisect the country midweek, delivering widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley and offering up another threat of severe weather Wednesday-Thursday for the TN Valley into the Deep South.

III. A 3rd system will track out of the northern Plains and begin to affect the Ohio Valley next weekend with increased showers and thunderstorms.

Wettest anomalies this week will be confined to the lower MS Valley, Deep South, and immediate East Coast.
Chilly weather (compared to normal) will continue to dominate the Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians and East.
Across immediate central Indiana, we’re expecting rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.25″ between now and next Saturday morning.
Unfortunately, another significant severe weather episode is expected across the Gulf Coast region on Sunday.

Forecast Period: 04.18.20 through 04.25.20

High pressure will build into the region today and supply a return of beautiful weather conditions. Albeit still cooler than normal, vastly improved weather conditions are on tap compared to the rain and snow of the past couple of days! Enjoy, friends!

A couple of weak and fairly moisture-starved cold fronts will give our immediate area “glancing blows” through early week. Scattered showers are all we can expect with these fronts Sunday and Tuesday. (Greater impacts from precipitation and cooler air can be expected off to our northeast with these fronts).

As we head into the back half of the forecast period, a couple of more significant storm systems will offer up better rainfall coverage, including the opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend. We’ll keep an eye through the week on the potential of some stronger storms during this period, but as things stand now, the greater risk for severe appears to be off to our south.

One additional note- frost/ freeze conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across central parts of the state with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/18/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-3/

Apr 11

Weekly #AGwx and #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Strong Easter storm system leads to a widespread severe weather outbreak across the southern Plains (today), Deep South (Sunday), and into the central/ southern Ohio Valley (Sunday night).

II. An anomalous trough carves itself out over the eastern half of the country leading to well below average temperatures in the week ahead.

The Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic will be in the cross hairs of well above average rainfall this week.
Most of the country will experience well below average temperatures in the week ahead.
Most of immediate central Indiana should pick up close to 1″ of rain during the upcoming 7-day period. Heavier amounts will likely fall across southern Indiana south into the TN Valley.
A major severe weather outbreak is expected from the southern Plains into the Deep South over the next 24-48 hours.

Forecast Period: 04.11.20 through 04.18.20

More specific to central Indiana, today will feature mostly cloudy, but mostly dry conditions. As a warm front lifts north across the state tonight, chances of showers will be on the increase. Easter will feature a deepening low pressure system racing northeast from the Ark-la-tex region across the central Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. Most of Easter Sunday will also feature precipitation-free hours, but showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase tomorrow evening into the nighttime. (If you have family and friends across the Deep South, please reach out and ensure they are aware of the developing situation and corresponding strong risk of significant severe weather Easter Sunday). While the threat of severe weather isn’t as great up this way, we’re closely monitoring the potential of a squall line impacting areas into southeastern Indiana late Sunday night into the overnight Monday- continuing into central portions of the Ohio. An associated damaging wind threat would ensue with this line of storms. Finally, as the cold front sweeps through the region Monday morning, rain should come to an end around or just before daybreak, but much cooler and very windy conditions will develop. Monday should feature northwest gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

The remainder of the forecast period will be dominated by unseasonably chilly conditions and a couple of weaker, fast-moving, disturbances. With the cold air in place, mixed rain and snow showers are possible midweek with a disturbance.

Tuesday through Thursday mornings feature the best chance of temperatures falling to or below the freezing mark. Frost isn’t anticipated outside of this time frame due to clouds and/ or wind.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/11/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-2/

Apr 09

VIDEO: Chilly Pattern Settles In; Easter Storm, And Looking Ahead To Potential Wet End To April…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/09/video-chilly-pattern-settles-in-easter-storm-and-looking-ahead-to-potential-wet-end-to-april/

Apr 04

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

The first Saturday in April can only mean one thing and that’s the return of our weekly #AGwx and Severe Weather Outlook. Similar to last year, this will be posted each Saturday morning through the month of September.

Weekly Highlights:

I. A strong area of low pressure will move in off the Pacific and provide heavy rain across CA, including intense mountain snow Sunday through Wednesday.

II. A strong cold front will move through the Midwest and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in a drastic change from late spring like temperatures to more winter-like by late next week.

Below normal precipitation is expected over the next week across a good chunk of the country.
Ahead of a strong late week cold front, temperatures will pop to well above average levels through the 1st half of next week. 

7-day rainfall amounts should average right around 0.50″ for our immediate area.
Organized, widespread severe weather isn’t expected across the country over the upcoming 7-days.

More specific to central Indiana, we’ll have 3 weather makers to track over the upcoming week:

This afternoon- A cold front will pass through the state without much fanfare. A few showers are possible here and there, but some won’t see a drop of rain and those that do can expect only light amounts.

Tuesday through Thursday- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area during this time frame as a couple of fast moving disturbances track across the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday with a band of rain followed by windy and much colder air to close the week and head into next weekend.

Week 2 (April 11th-18th) trends are for much colder air along with the prospects of light mixed rain/ snow showers at times. There’s the threat of a stronger system late in the Week 2 time frame that we’ll continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/04/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook/

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