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Category: AG Report
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/29/monday-evening-video-tropical-airmass-locks-in-more-on-our-july-outlook/
Jun 28
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
I. Recent wet pattern remains intact.
II. Persistent hot, muggy regime takes us into the holiday weekend.
Forecast Period: 06.28.20 through 07.05.20
A stationary frontal boundary will remain draped across the region until Tuesday night before getting a slight “nudge” off to the southwest Wednesday. The warm and humid pattern in place today will remain locked into the area straight through the holiday weekend (with a small break in humidity midweek). Periods of hefty thunderstorms can be expected- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. With such high moisture content in the air, locally heavy rainfall is expected at times. This “rinse and repeat” forecast will begin to change up by the holiday weekend as ridging builds overhead. While this won’t help us with the heat or humidity, this will reduce rain chances. Instead of scattered to numerous coverage, we’ll be talking about isolated coverage for the holiday weekend, itself. Most will stay dry. By this time frame, we’ll monitor the goings on to our south as a cut off low keeps the TN Valley into the Southeast region unsettled with more widespread storm coverage for the holiday weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/28/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-11/
Jun 21
VIDEO: Increasingly Active, Wetter Pattern To Close Out June And Open July…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/21/video-increasingly-active-wetter-pattern-to-close-out-june-and-open-july/
Jun 20
VIDEO: Hot First Day Of Summer; Better Rain Chances Return Into Early Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/20/video-hot-first-day-of-summer-better-rain-chances-return-into-early-next-week/
Jun 18
Long Range Update: Changes Afoot…
Looking at a simple snapshot of the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map would suggest a La Nina is brewing (image 1), BUT the latest SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, also knows as the SOI) suggests otherwise (images 2-3):
In fact, the SOI values noted would suggest an El Nino is coming on. The daily hit of more than 30 suggests some wild swings in the weather over the upcoming couple of weeks across the Lower 48. Now, we still anticipate this to transition more towards a positive direction and a subsequent La Nina to, indeed, develop by fall and winter, but this is worth continuing to pay attention to and we’ll do just that.
As we look at June to-date across central Indiana, temperatures are running a little more than 2° above normal and precipitation is just over 1″ below normal. Given the pattern ahead, we continue to like where we stand with our June forecast overall: near-average precipitation and temperatures. This will, obviously take a wetter, cooler shift in the regime as we move through the next 10-12 days. Overall, that’s where we continue to believe we’re heading.
The latest JMA Weeklies hot off the press shows this big cool, wet change across our region. A series of troughs are shown to descend into the Ohio Valley during the next 10-16 days. As the individual cold fronts sweep through the region, better chances of rain will result and temperatures will run cooler than normal, overall.
Week 1
Week 2
The latest GEFS data is very similar in this wet, cool shift.
There’s support for this pattern in looking at the latest East Pacific Oscillation, as well. Negative values support central/ eastern cool and periods of transition from positive to negative (and vice-versa) also can help promote wet/ more active periods.
The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a “sneaky” wild card in all of this. Note how the MJO is currently shown to slowly move through Phase 2 before going into the wheelhouse and emerging into Phase 8 by month’s end. While certainly not highly amplified, this is enough to have impacts. Note that Phases 2 and 8 this time of year maintain a cooler look, locally.
In summary, though it’s certainly been dry over the past couple of weeks, we think there’s more than enough reason not to fret. Not only are we looking at a pattern that should keep the heat (at least in a prolonged sense) west of our region, but the pattern drivers above should also result in a much more active regime with frontal passages and associated areas of low pressure moving through the region. This will begin in earnest early next week and continue through Week 2.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/18/long-range-update-changes-afoot/
Jun 13
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/13/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-10/
Jun 12
Long Range Update: Timing Out When The Dry Pattern Breaks Down; 2nd Half Of Summer Chatter…
The balance of the upcoming 7-10 days will feature bone dry conditions across central Indiana. A fast moving disturbance will drop southeast Saturday and could spawn a scattered shower across central Indiana, but we believe the more concentrated rain activity will remain to our east and southwest. If you do see a Saturday shower, count yourself lucky! This disturbance and associated cold front will serve to reinforce the dry airmass currently in place, along with bring temperatures down another couple of “notches” for the weekend (wouldn’t be surprised if some outlying areas get into the 40s Sunday or Monday mornings).
As we look ahead, a ridge of high pressure will dominate next week’s weather pattern. An extended stretch of dry (pleasant humidity levels), sunny days can be expected with a slow warming trend.
Things begin to get a little more “murky” late next week as forecast model solutions differ significantly. The new GFS forecast model drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley before stalling out as multiple disturbances ride along the boundary. This would lead to needed rain (and potentially heavy rain at that) late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the European model isn’t nearly as excited about this wet weather potential. The reality likely lies somewhere in between and we’ll trend our forecast wetter late week, but hold on the heavy rain threat for now. Stay tuned.
With that said, we do believe (given the pattern drivers discussed below) that the wetter trends shown on the GFS ensemble data in the Week 2 (and beyond) time frame has validity.
The latest JMA Weekly data also shows a similar wet idea during this time period.
As we look at the PNA and EPO, the transition in both teleconnections next week do give credence to the wetter them shown above during the said period.
Additionally, the positive PNA (image 1 above) and negative EPO (image 2 above) argue for the possibility of another period of cool weather to wrap up the month. This would come after transitional heat late next week.
The GEFS is cooler than the European during this time frame. Given the above, it wouldn’t surprise us if the Euro is forced to cool as we get closer to this period.
We’re undoubtedly entering into a critical time frame for the remainder of the summer. The upcoming couple of weeks will go a long way in determining the balance of the rest of this season. Despite the short-term dry pattern, we do believe (at least locally), rain will return before things get out of hand. The same may not be able to be said just to our west. It’s there (more from the Rockies into the Plains) where we think July heat will build in more significant fashion with the drier soils.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/12/long-range-update-timing-out-when-the-dry-pattern-breaks-down-2nd-half-of-summer-chatter/
Jun 06
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Cristobal’s remnant moisture
II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week
Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20
Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/06/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-9/
May 30
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.
II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.
Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20
Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/30/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/
May 24
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.
II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.
Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20
The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-8/