Category Archives: AG Report

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.06.21 @ 8:28a

The upper pattern this week will feature a dominant upper ridge across the northern tier, centered over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a stubborn upper low will move slowly northeast out of the southern Plains early and mid week.
The immediate western seaboard will run below to well below normal this week, while the upper Plains into the Great Lakes run well above average.
Well above normal rainfall can be expected through the period across the Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic regions.
We forecast between 1.5″ and 2″ on a widespread basis across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier amounts with this setup.

Forecast Period: 06.06.21 through 06.13.21

Our weather pattern will be dominated by a stubborn upper low moving slowly northeast out of the southern Plains. Eventually, this upper low will get entangled in the westerlies and begin to lose influence on our weather towards the tail end of the week. Before that, we’ll notice a rather marked difference in the type of airmass this week compared to what we’ve seen of late. A deep tropical flow, straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, will bring moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley, including dew points that will approach the oppressive level (65° to 70°). While daytime highs will be kept cooler with the clouds and rain around, overnight lows will be elevated with such a humid airmass in place. A daily dose of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this pattern- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the humidity, locally heavy rain is a good bet at times. While coverage of showers and storms should slowly begin to diminish towards Friday and Saturday, we’ll still keep mention of scattered storms in our forecast into next weekend.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 05.30.21 @ 11:09a

Unseasonably cool weather will dominate the south-central Plains and into the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Meanwhile, unseasonable warmth will prevail across the West.
A wet pattern can be expected along the eastern seaboard and south-central Plains. Drier than average conditions can be expected across the northern tier and central Gulf Coast.
We forecast between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain in the week ahead for central Indiana.

Forecast period: 05.30.21 through 06.06.21

Refreshing times will continue to dominate through the remainder of the holiday weekend. While dry and unseasonably cool air will grab the headlines in the short-term, changes will arrive by midweek as a storm system blows into the Ohio Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase by Tuesday night and Wednesday and some of these storms may contain locally heavy rain. A broad southwesterly flow will keep things feeling more typical for this time of year for the 2nd half of the week, as well. More seasonable temperatures can be expected late week (lower 80s for daytime highs) along with an increase in humidity levels providing daily chances of afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” storm coverage.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Rain, T-storms

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 05.23.21 @ 9:26a

Temperatures will run well above normal across the Midwest, Great Lakes and points east and south through the upcoming week. Cooler air will penetrate the northwest.
More active times will spread into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic in the week ahead. Meanwhile, the Southeast remains bone dry.
Rainfall totals should check in between 0.50″ and 1″ for most central IN rain gauges during the 7-day period.
Best chances of severe weather this week will actually take place today across the High Plains.

Forecast Period: 05.23.21 through 05.30.21

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the early week period. With high pressure in control, we can expect a continuation of mostly dry and unseasonably hot weather through Tuesday. That will all begin to change by midweek as the ridge breaks down and an approaching cold front creates better chances of showers and thunderstorms. This frontal passage will be followed by a wave of low pressure that will push through the Ohio Valley Thursday night and Friday. This low pressure system will likely feature a renewed opportunity of moderate rain and thunderstorms to close the work week. The good news is that model consensus keeps the all-important Saturday through Monday period rain-free (finger’s crossed that holds) and much cooler.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Forecast Discussion, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 05.15.21 @ 7:29a

Temperatures will run slightly above normal (for a change) across a good chunk of the country through the upcoming 7 days. Only exception to this will be across the South.
The Heartland will be in the cross hairs of a multi day heavy rain event this week. Meanwhile, from the central and Ohio Valley and points east we’re looking at a continued dry stretch.
Central Indiana can expect between 1” and 1.5” of rain in the week ahead on average.
This will be an active week for the Plains as a multi day severe weather episode compliments what will also be an evolving flood risk.

Forecast Period: 05.15.21 through 05.22.21

Change is ahead over the upcoming week towards a pattern more typical of what we’d come to expect this time of year. We’ll say goodbye to the cool, crisp air in the short term period and replace it with an increasingly warm and muggy feel of things. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this transition. While the chances of widespread heavy rain are diminishing, we will see scattered to numerous showers and storms during the early and middle part of the work week. These will be of the “splash and dash” variety and certainly won’t require any cancellation of outdoor plans. High pressure appears like it’ll nudge its way into the region Wednesday night, allowing us to enjoy another stretch of dry conditions as we close the work week and head into next weekend.

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 05.10.21 @ 8:32p

Temperatures will continue to run well below normal, overall, through the upcoming 7-day period.
While above normal rainfall is expected along the Gulf Coast, most of the country will enjoy quiet and drier conditions through the upcoming period.
We forecast 0.25″ to 0.50″ over the upcoming 7-day period for central Indiana. Most of that falls today or next Monday.

Forecast Period: 05.10.21 through 05.17.21

The upcoming forecast period will be met with unseasonably cool and dry conditions. While we have some showers to track this evening (mostly from Indianapolis and points north), the large majority of the rest of the period above will feature an extended period to dry out with considerable amounts of sunshine. The downside? Clear skies and calm winds at night with a late season arctic high dominating will result in a couple of additional frosty nights ahead. The coldest mornings appear dialed up Wednesday and Thursday. Mid 30s will be common with a few reports of low temperatures around freezing for outlying communities. The next opportunity for rain won’t arrive until Sunday afternoon/ evening. With high pressure dominating, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, and will remain below normal for the rest of the country.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather